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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just going off tropical tidbits for that run.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z ICON is probably the closest to a miller A of any OP run yet.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Milton messing around on his phone and having to be told Heupel was talking about him when the camera shows up pretty much sums up how I feel about Milton’s attitude. Ready for the Nico era!
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Chatty about to get NAM’d
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the Ukie gif MSLP: It's got a wonkier relationship with a midwest low, but the strongest Gulf low (998 south of New Orleans and Mobile)
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it didn’t serve quite as well as it did at 0z but still ok for plateau areas above 1600 feet or so.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Ukie is in the 0z Euro/12z GFS/ ICON camp
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sure enough CMC jumped north as the GFS jumped south.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are some of the plots for MSLP and 850 hPa wind centered on Saturday AM around midnight:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the Euro has some Machine Learning models for some basic parameters available to the public for free. New models to hug I guess. Looks like they have trended more S and E with the track for the weekend storm. Could change though and these are experimental.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I’m glad 14 of those were before I was born. Probably not a bad sign.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS also trying to split the SPV again: Like others have said it doesn't matter so much if it splits, only if it is distressed and not a tightly coupled wound ball over the pole. Speaking of coupled, what an -AO at 500 mb on the 6x GFS: There is 100% some major warming happening in the strat over the next week, it just probably won't qualify as a major SSWE based on the wind reversal criteria. GFS has temps approaching 0 degrees celsius at 10 mb: Euro isn't quite as aggressive but similar: It seems to be trying to drip down, and I wonder if that is the -AO the GFS is starting to see at long range. Maybe not, but worth keeping an eye on:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    NW precip jog continues at 6z: trough trending sharper and deeper: Let's see where it goes.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    If the MJO does spend the next month ambling through 4/5/6, in a strong Nino, after we’ve had years of Nina to reset the PAC SST gradient after the super Nino in 15/16, is there any ENSO state that would favor an active gulf coast storm track AND cold in North America? Not saying that will happen but it is on the table now. At least we have a decent storm track coming up. I will say the conflicting MJO convection has tended to produce a stronger Norther jet IMO this year and that has increased model uncertainty at times.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS gives you hope Matthew (so it can take it away later) I like this very realistic (read with sarcasm) close up snap shot from that run: There is no way if there is a valley warm nose and a low over Tellico that I'm staying snow, lol.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 1/4 wave on the GFS has Tellico's Great Lakes low. I think Tellico summoned it.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm at a light flizzard right now. Actual recognizable snowflakes, lol.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm getting some flurries here in Morgan County. Not a terrible radar, we'll see how well it holds together:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight Euro for next Wed Jan 3 through Mon Jan 8. 6z GFS has a similar storm with more cold: CMC has the storm, but is suppressed It does have the beautiful slider John mentioned earlier later in its run. EPS city chart for Crossville looks ok with a few good hits:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll try to kick this off with an image from England in the 1300s: I'm hoping that's Boreas blowing in some cold winds under a storm cloud in the top right corner.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll take a stab at a January thread.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    If lapse rates are driving some of it I would think the PM would be better, but if the sun doesn’t come out tomorrow I don’t know if they will be as high? if it were me I would try to wait for radar trends but you may not have that option.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stole this from the MA (for the system the Euro depicted at 12z): TRI's in the same risk level as some of the lowest elevations of the Sierras!!
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Latest MRX on the system tomorrow and Saturday: On Friday night, upper-level closed low is forecast to be across KY with the upper-level trough axis shifting eastward across the Southern Appalachians by Saturday morning. Mid-level lapse rates will be steep across the region with a strong 150 kt upper jet contributing to some weak ascent across our area. Dynamics are weak, though, and the main contributor to precipitation will be weak orographic lift and weak CSI to support localized heavier showers. The temperature profile will be favorable for snow across the higher elevations of the plateau and mountains, but don`t expect much. A mix of rain showers and snow flurries is expected across the valley. There is so little moisture that significant snow accumulations are not forecast, and in fact, even the highest elevations of the mountains likely will not see more than 1 to 2 inches. Portions of the plateau will see a dusting to one-half inch with locally higher totals. Valley locations will not see accumulation with the exception of a localized brief dusting possible on some grassy surfaces. This system on Friday/Saturday is very weak. New term for me there, "Conditional Symmetric Instability (CSI)"
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually just thinking that you might try a drive to the edge of the plateau: Really nice overlook there if nothing else, off of US HWY 70. That should also put your through the best regions on the NWS Nashville map. Here is an idea of that view at the destination pin (Cumberland Plateau scenic overlook) you'll be looking toward Cookeville. Looks like some should precip be moving in by late tomorrow PM, but i would just watch radar trends for that just to be safe
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