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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add that the EPS is pretty enthused about at least snow showers and flurries next week on the plateau and mts: Plateau: Mts: But, is the GFS the new Dr. No? Even if it is ultimately wrong, can it effectively show how things could go south?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Overnight ensembles: EPS GEFS GEPS GEFS is definitely in ints own world with regards to the SE ridge and troughs in the western trough. But I'm kind of in what can go wrong, may go wrong mode right now... hopefully that's just a personal problem lol
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Someone in the MA forum linked to this today. Some good insights into how the CPC folks see the pattern evolving: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ For me, it was striking how much came down to La Nina probabilities. Not saying they are wrong to do that, but the whole write up was fascinating in terms of trying to see how the pros reason through medium to long range forecasting. Some good MJO disco in there too.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    The big storm that was going to be a big front next week has almost turned into a Miller B on the 6z GFS. The GFS depicts the low transfer from Dubuque, Iowa to Cape Fear
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beautiful night up here in Morgan County: Sadly the clearing seems to only happen after dark.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    My body is ready for its +PNA experience
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's banter, but man, I think there's some weenie rule that says a run like that has to be posted: The stuff Gulf Low dreams are made of lol.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Could be an interesting end to this GFS run
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS member 15 would be a nice present:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe they put something in its algorithm from way back in the FV3 days when it used to produce those wild snow storms late in its run.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing we can say, is at least the pattern can kicking seems to have stopped, at least for now.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll probably be able to kayak in my front yard after this next batch of rain moves in:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro had an interesting take on the big system next week: Might could be not bad for upslope? The rest of that pattern doesn't look too bad either. I think this storm window is the same one the GFS called like 10 days ago, but had it as a storm moving WSW into Norfolk: Speaking of the GFS, it looks pretty similar to the Euro in the window: I know I just posted that time frame at 500 mb yesterday afternoon, but I fully expected it to be 100% different on the GFS this morning with how that model has been swinging lately. At least this is a dollop of consistency.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it depends on which phase it initializes in. A few years ago Webb had some research that if the models initialize it in phase 7, the GFS suite does better than the Euro. But other than that I'm not sure.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Pac looks pretty good (Euro) to much improved (CMC) on the 12z OPs late in their runs. Will it hold? Will it flood? Will severe weather blow us away next week?
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Creeks are looking healthy at Frozen head. Highest volume in a looong time. Judge Branch and tributaries:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think digital snow counts if the person seeing it looks at GOES lightning data!
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Finally got some nice western Pac convection: But as others have noted the TC in the Indian Ocean is probably skewing the western Pac convection's impact to the overall pattern. Long range GFS develops another TC right behind that one and the Euro isn't quite as excited about it, so maybe that has some impact on how each model resolves things downstream? Either way I'm just glad to see some convection developing in the western Pac. Both the Euro and GFS have the MJO staying low amplitude in the COD and getting back to 8 in the COD in about 10 days.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looked to be heading somewhere nice at the end of its run.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe the GEFS control would work? That ensemble might still be run on an older version of the GFS core?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was a Maue tweet that I saw on southernwx: I think that is the 500mb pattern N hemisphere pattern.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It has, but supposedly the newest one had lower verification scores than the old one. Not sure exactly which parameter was used for the score though. I'll see if I can dig up that post.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nothing like that first 34 degree rain to set the mood, lol!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually, looking back at the beautiful 18z GFS run from yesterday, the storm window was a bit later in next week. But it still had a nice 50/50.
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