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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was yeah, lol. I'm not sure how to read this tweet, but it from someone who works for the WPC and seems to indicate the possibility for it be a warm core system:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Healthy looking storm off the east coast this AM:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Quite an OP model war overnight with the Euro and GFS respectively sticking to their guns. GFS hangs up the shortwaves out west, Euro allows for a more progressive boundary and shortwaves. Looks like the Euro control also popped a -NAO at 300+ hr.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do we have a snow poo reaction now?
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    We were still waiting on the pattern change from the strat as of page 16 of the Jan thread. we did eventually get a storm, but it was just a light wave riding a front kind of a thing. I think this was all it amounted to: Apparently I was so eager to get a satellite shot I couldn't wait until full daylight.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think that was as recently as 18-19. We'd had one in late Feb 18 and it had produced a nice -NAO period that helped out the east coast (MA and NE), so we were hopeful that it would have the same result. It happened right as the MJO was in the 4/5/6 phase and just enhanced to bejeebus out of it there lol since it displaced some cooler air to the tropic latitudes in the tropopause. We did get an wave running a front for the "Dayton leeside micro low" event towards the end of January. here is a post from @EastKnox that kind of summed it up, lol: Current EPS depiction for this Jan 24, lol :
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Heck, even the strat is under strain like in late Nov: November gif: 6z this AM: Now, the type of stress the SPV is under here is not the same. There is no -NAO currently helping to displace it, but there are signs of a Scandinavian ridge exerting some pressure later this month: Late November: 6z this AM
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's my "flooding" post from late November for reference
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I swear this is like deja vu for me for this time last month. I start worrying about the flood pattern, then that pattern starts to look more suppressed: Then Jax posts about East Asia. I've included his December post here just to show how eerily similar it is to yesterdays:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z OP GFS looked a little more suppressed with the energy scooting out of the SW. Hopefully that's a nod towards the Euro's progression. edit to specify that I'm talking about days 7+ pattern evolution
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ended up with about 1" here. Exceeded expectations for MBY!
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I seriously just thought about you when I looked out at my deck. I thought, I bet John has 2 -3" based on my current 1/4 inch, lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's what I'm hoping too.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's eventually heading back that way for sure, but if we get a trough dump in the west hopefully we can keep a -EPO and at least keep some cold in play in Canada this time. I guess once it cycles back to 4-5-6, we hope it doesn't do that extra long Pac jet extension and just wipe out all -ve temp anomalies on our continent again.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    There have been a couple of OP GFS long range runs that have shown a semi split over the past couple of days, but that's about it so far. One oft he frames in Jax's gif shows one of those runs.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we can avoid Canada dumping all its cold at once this time and the Canucks will dole it out one 1038 HP at a time.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's awesome! Still rain here. You're above 2000' now, if I remember correctly?
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BackpackingWeather Here is a photo of one of the more photogenic drifts on the AT near Cammerer : And this is at a pretty low elevation on the trail up to the AT from Cosby: https://i.imgur.com/LRLnICP.mp4
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    And when I say "early" I mean within 3 hours of it starting.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BackpackingWeather Here is a video I took several years ago at approx this location on Bullhead Trail: This was pretty early in to a NW flow event at about 5700 feet. The video is only in SD, so it doesn't do the conditions justice. The wind was gnarly. I've seen hip high drifts (3.5') on the AT near Mt Cammerer after one of these events.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    How many rounds of thunder and rain did the TN Valley have today? 3?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's been some strat can kicking, but I'd say we're still under a Strat watch:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    And there it is. First negative SOI reading since (I think) November
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    that is hands down the best LeConte/ Clingman's NAMing I've ever seen
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    A more realistic total for LeConte, just to keep my posts in reality might be 6-12 on that NAM run
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