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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the 12z Euro: I think surface temps will verify colder than the models suggest, but I am concerned about 925mb and 850mb temps with this one.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'm honestly kind of intrigued by the long range ensembles showing some nice west coast ridging for what seems like the first time in a long time.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Now, finally, to the strat stuff. Here is the latest GFS: 10mb 50mb: Overall I would say it continues to look discombobulated and uncomfortable. MJO going through 6 at high amplitude will keep the pressure on. Continued warming over Greenland might be conducive to another -NAO once and if it drips down.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hiwawari satellite is definitely the old La Nina Maritime Continent look we are used to for the past several winters: Just looking at the convection over Darwin, I wouldn't be surprised if the SOI was very positive. Just check and it is +31, lol. I think the RMM plots have been consistently trying to kill off the MJO, only to have it kick back up and continue along its merry pace. Looks like we will probably get another Pac jet extension after a East Asia mountain torque again, like we got back in Dec. Big high settling down over east Asia and a low fires up in the NW Pac: This one doesn't look like it will be quite as intense as the last one.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was actually just about to toss up some MJO pics so we can see how they verify down the road:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Deck pick update: that was where the gnome beer was.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not as much as it sounds like you have had. I’ve never gotten above maybe dime or penny size flakes at best.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I’m getting some warm nose here too. Mostly snow but maybe a bit of melting or sleet. John may be protected by Frozen Head/ Cross mt. Might could be up to 7.5 now.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably topping out IMBY with between 6 and 7:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    As far as I can tell it should make it. SPC convective statement Powell posted seems hopeful too. IMO someone between me and Knoxville is going to ride the line just right and get 10-12”.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll check back in on it about 5
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    That's my official measuring device.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I 40 looks like it is a disaster from just before Kingston to Crossvile
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dog pic:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's got to be a happy median somewhere between me and the foothills. I'm getting pixie dust fringed wrt flake size. I guess i could have worse problems.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know it's been such a mess on modeling. Of all the globals I think the GFS did best. NAM played catch up with the precip. axis, but has done pretty good on amounts, along with the HRRR. I think the RGEM wins again for short range.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks to me like it is over performing a bit.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Our storm has a STJ (subtropical jet) connection going well out into the Pacific. Not a terribly strong one, but nice to see that active STJ
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden deck pick:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Flurries now in southern Morgan county at 1300 feet.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still nothing at 1300', but my weather station is ready:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe this is a weenie wish casting thing, but maybe it is initializing with somewhat warmer temps than expected. In this particular case the Arctic air is on the doorstep of the valley and it is currently trying to work in. The moisture isn't here yet, so there's still time. It's not like we have 2 hours of precip left right now.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    agreed
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's already got a foot north of Crossville by 21z Monday
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