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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    The phase between the second shortwave and the one above, happens almost overhead east TN.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Look how much further west it is: at this hour, it looks like it is headed for the Gulf at a good angle.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    The northern shortwave is nearly 500 miles west of 6z, lol.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I think was looking at the southern s/w thinking that was part of the storm, it may have been on a few runs ago, but I guess it's the n.stream piece over UT and CO at hour 99 I should be watching.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the N stream shortwave over Canada is running a little faster on the 12z GFS wrt to next weekend possible storm. Might catch the southern stream s/w a bit quicker on this run
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe we need to start a betting pool for which runs will show a big east coast storm and which won't over the next few days. 6z GFS looked a little better than 0z, but not nearly what we saw at 18z yesterday. 6z Euro looked like it might be a little better than 0z , but that's only based on extrapolating 500 mb vort maps past hour 90. I'm basically ready fro Friday just so we can see what happens. This next weekend chances notwithstanding, I think we need a reshuffle if we want better chances at a storm. There is just so much wind in the mid and upper levels in the eastern CONUS, that even when we get a nice southern stream shortwave (like this Tuesday) it gets sheared apart when it gets to the southeast. I kinda wish the MJO signal would just go ahead, and come out of the COD in the Maritime Continent, and start the same trek through 4/5/6 that it took in December. Yeah, that would make things less favorable for a while, but hopefully we could get it back to 7/8/1 by late February. But it's just dicking around in the COD for the next 10 - 15 days as though the tropical convection zones were on Oprah: "you get convection, and you get some convection, you all get convection!!" The BOM evolution is just bizzaro, but I would take it: It sees the main signal going backwards through 6->5->4->3->2->1->8 by 20 February, but all in the COD. What happened to our December -NAO? Do we just have waayyyy too much motion in the N. Hemisphere to get one of those now? GFS and EPS still show some arctic blocking, the -AO y'all were talking about recently, so will be interesting to see how that plays out towards mid February.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the mean vort map:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z EPS: Not that this hasn't been said 1000 times at this point, but not a bad look at this range for H5, precip., and temps.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ollie Williams over at southernwx just pointed out that Tomer Burg has GEFS vort maps on his site. I've always wanted to see something like this to see how certain members get to certain solutions that produce storms. So of course I had to giphyfy it. The resolution is so small that it might not be helpful unless you zoom in, but it gives you an idea of how different members see the mid level evolution, all at once: I started it at hour 150 and went through about hr 220. I went slowly forwards and backwards and then sped it up. Vort is there in just about every member, and I think this just goes to show how delicate this set up is.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's wild to look at the spaghetti-O plots for this GEFS run. There are some that see a storm, but I think every single one of them is OTS or too far north: The thicker purple line is the OP and the smaller lighter lines are the ensemble members.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if the amount of active wind energy in the flow right now would help to really amp up something if everything was timed just right? It's like these northern stream darts are being thrown by a pitching machine. If one was caught in a phase, would putting the breaks on like that really ratchet up the energy available for a potential cyclone?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Caveat, this post is aimed at the very end of the long range right now. As we start to transition back to a less favorable pattern in the long range, I thought I'd look at ye olden strat. Lots of run-to-run variability (that's code for I looked at two runs and am too lazy to dig deeper right now). There're the sort of disruptions we'd expect with the less favorable tropical forcing: 50mb: Nothing though that looks much different than it looked in the long rage in December. Indian Ocean convection looking healthy. I looked at it over the past 3 weeks (not the below gif) and there has definitely been a tendency for the convection over tropical Africa to move offshore in the past week, so I think it probably is the expected MJO wave started up again in its treck across the eastern hemisphere's tropics. Even though the RMMs have us in the COD, I suspect that is because there are competing areas of convection. Still some in the Maritime Continent into the western Pac. When and if that Indian Ocean wave propagates to the Maritime Continent, we probably torch, but hopefully we can avoid the heavy rains that El Nino baby's CFS plots from a few days ago showed. One point of interest that I noticed Raindancewx pointed out in one of the volcano threads, was that the volcano shook up the waters around Tonga and cooled them off: That little cooler area north of New Zealand. I've noticed that that area is a prime region for TC development when the MJO gets to phase 7, so it wil; be interesting to see how and if that changes anything when the MJO gets there again in late February.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Little bit of a leeside low in Upstate SC: Wonder is that is helping enhance this a bit AND I wonder if that means y'all will get another one of these tomorrow evening as the next shortwave rolls through?
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Players are still on the field for the big phased bomb from the 12z GFS. Shortwave in the southwest ejects out about 48 hours too quickly this time so a swing and a miss:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've seen worse and we're pretty used to the marginal set ups this winter at this point:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the happy hour GFS is trying to move the dreaded Lakes Low out a little quicker with the Tuesday system. Might be a realistic solution in the fast flow. That clipper is dragging some nice cold air behind it, so if we can time the southwest shortwave out just a tad slower, we might have something.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty good little band moving down the eastern valley: Look like Knoxville might even get in on the action for a minute
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was just wondering if anyone was getting any upslope moisture. One of the coldest frontal passage during the day time for me this winter.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I had a few crappie at 5 AM (sadly none were regulation keepers), but mostly big old fat rain drops.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Do we think there will be a Nino next year? Will it be the sacréd Modoki? Will it actually behave like an El Nino or will the pattern have this sort of a "back loaded" look from our last Nino: I feel like this week and esp. what we're seeing modeled next week have actually been/are what we would expect out of a La Nina: fast flow and N stream, having to time everything just right. But, the STJ has also been active over the past couple of week and we certainly didn't have a front-loaded winter: Imagine if that had been based on 1971 - 2000 normals! I guess you could argue that the past 2 and a half weeks are our front loaded winter, but to me this is more of a middle loaded winter so far. That image does of course suggest that there's another variable in my question about next year's ENSO, but as strange as this may sound to some, let's leave that out for now since I don't want to stir the pot. I guess my question is, do we think the Pacific gradients are somewhat reset after the super Nino of Doom(c) in 2016? How's the AMO looking? Did the PDO flip this year?
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Any guesses what precip type I've had this morning?
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some GFS Fv3 levels of freezing rain:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    There's the La Nina we know and love:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    TIMs model is booting up for it's 0z run:
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