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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden 6z GFS looked interesting for higher elevations this weekend Seemed like that was a pretty far jump southwest for the upper low
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    In terms of the next couple of weeks (not in reference to whatever happens next weekend) for you model junkies like me I think we're starting to see the long foretold Feb. SE ridge flex in modeling. I think we start to see some interesting looks show up again in LR OP runs around around the 20th.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the wacky depiction from Feb 2 0z run:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro trying to make clippers great again for Middle TN overnight: Some EPS support (like 5/6 members, which is more than I would have expected for such a little system)
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe I'm not sure. I think it looks at a vertical and a horizontal scan so that's how it can see snow melting.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Beech mountain crest looks fun this am:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The above temp anomaly was from 6z today. Looking back at 0z, we still had a split depicted again at 50 and 10 mb, so the 3D vortex rendering should look pretty cool tomorrow. That site updates once a day for the 3D vortex with the previous day's oz data.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    No split on the GFS strat this AM, but a whale of a warming. I hate to say it for our spring, but I think its coming this time. The last attempt weakened it pretty good at 10mb. Here is the 3D vortex back in December: Here is what it looks like now: The trouble with all this is that the last attempt also seems to have strengthened it in the lower levels. Note the sort of flip that has happened with the 3D vortex. In Dec it was larger up top and smaller on the bottom. Now that has reversed. So if a SSW happens with what the GFS is depicting, it would likely be a top down type that would take 3 weeks or so to have much effect on us. The "we're due" weenie index would suggest one of these should help us after the past 3 didn't. The cynical Holston mind would suggest "at least this might keep us out of a bad la Nina severe season, lol.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I see @BlunderStorm on here. I was about to ask if you were seeing any snow
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Correlation coefficient also shows that there might be some mixed precip pretty close to the ground in the enhanced echoes just west of Knoxville: I'm under some of those higher echoes in souther Morgan county and it is just rain for me, but I would be interested to see what its like under the highest red echoes. Must be a heck of a warm nose for it to be this cold at the surface with those rates and still be rain.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some pretty enhanced echoes over middle TN. Is that just heavy rain or freezing rain? Looks like snow is just over the TN/VA border too: If I could this would be a "try Leconte" sort of a morning just see how things are up above 5000 feet.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS is at it again. : nothing to get too excited about just yet, still a long ways out. That would be a full split at 10mb though.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Soundings look ok on the RGEM too, at least for snow, but I guess the question is more of how suppressed will it be? Is this a case where NW precip shield is under modeled?
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    the soundings look ok even for the lower elevations at least on the NAM: that one is over approx. Greeneville.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pretty much the same boat here, but 32 instead of 30. I was looking at Wunderground temp maps earlier and saw it was a bit cooler there so I was wondering how you had fared.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC has really been trying to create a storm at 240 hrs on some of its recent runs. Alas it is always at hr 240. But it has been consistent.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Back to the RGEM though, it continues to insist that the 3rd wave Thursday is still looking rough wrt ice: 6z RGEM for the entire event: and that is the FRAM product that takes into account melting. Latest NWS blend finally made a jump toward the more SE solutions (run over run trend for the past 9 runs)
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    WRT the north or south trends, I think what we've seen with this system is pretty cool. So we have gradually been shifting the mid and upper level forcing north as the SE ridge is being resolved a bit stronger by models run over run (just using the GFS as an example of this phenomenon, not as the model I trust the most in this situation: but the low level cold push has been coming in more south each recent run as the surface HP sneaks down beneath that forcing: So what you end up with wrt precip is a north trend, but also a more fzr/ IP trend than snow:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, looks like more sleet this run, especially with the second wave
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z RGEM lightens icing amounts, but ticks south again. Past 3 runs: Latest run in full resolution:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 18z NAM is like 10 - 20 miles south again with the freezing line.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z RGEM
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Out of curiosity I just checked and the 12z RGEM actually has me in southern Morgan county with 0.10" of FZR.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I guess the point of my post was more wrt the Aleutian low. Like you I really don’t remember seeing one consistently. I do think the big NAO in Dec is skewing that mean that Mt Holly posted. Feels like it’s been pretty +ve for a while now.
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