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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I have a good memory for one from Jan. 1994, I think. Only one I can remember off the top of my head. I came through just after dark and I remember what you describe on my back deck in Kingsport. I don't remember the exact date, but the experience.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z 3k NAM actually had what looked to me like an arctic front producing snow as it crossed TN between hour 40 and 50.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour GFS run from Jan 19, for Feb 2 - 4: 12z Euro for Feb 2 - 4, lol: Thankfully no apocalyptic totals though:
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hate to say this, but once the next storm cuts, I kinda think we're going to back to watching to see if the shortwave can kick out of the southwest again. If it does in time, somebody gets some snow, if not, cutters gonna cut. If it had kicked out more at 12z, we'd be back to a snow after, but as it played out, we had to wait until the next cutter to pull through. IMO all that depends on the strength and position of the ridge off or on the west coast. A couple of pattern obs. though. 1) Big bomb storm could do some oddball temporary blocking and 2) at least the shortwaves that get stuck in the southwest aren't getting sheared out like they are now, regardless of when they eject.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll add one more thing. As cynical as I am right now, the fact that we are in a Nina (seems like an actual Nina this winter) and it it looks like the pattern can't quite decide what it wants to do in February is probably a good thing.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll take the easy way out and say maybe its some sort of combo of what we had in December and now. We kind of have that this weekend with the Aleutians ridge and a PNA ridge. The PNA is rolling forward as it breaks down and the Aleutian is trying to build back in: So let's put this into motion, as the weather folks say: and the Euro: Watch where the waves break; sometimes over the Aleutians and sometimes closer to the Gulf of Alaska. When it is closer to the Gulf of Alaska, the downstream trough takes a more favorable track for the TN valley. When it is closer to he Aleutians, you get a variety of cutters. These wave breaks are modulated by the jet, which is modulated, in part, by tropical forcing. Blocking can modulate the trough and ridge axes as well, but that seems to be hard to come by in the NAO region since December. So the jet it is for now. Euro: GFS: So we want an upper level Aleutian low to cause the waves to break near Hawaii. When it is near the Okhotsk Sea/ Kamchatka, the waves break too far west. So watching these animations, it looks to me like the pattern kinda wants to do both lol. I guess this is what they mean by mixed signals, lol. MJO signals are mixed. BOM and Euro want to mess around in the COD, suggesting the mixed signal above, while the GFS wants to do that for a bit, it finally kicks it out into the dreaded phase 4, but the GFS only goes out so far. The BOM shows something similar, but rolls it back to around 7/8 by late February. I mean, to be honest, I think you probably summed it up a lot more succinctly than my mess above, now that I think about it. Bottom line looks like we are going to have to just time a wave along a front just right. But it does kind of seem like a mix of the two patterns we've seen this winter, to me.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z NAM, just looking at the southwest shortwave, looks like it is holding back quite a bit of energy as compared to the its 18z run and the 6z Euro looks like it is holding back more than 0z (but not much). GFS is holding back a tick more than 0z. So are we tied now wrt this weekend? GFS 1, Euro 1? HRRR is going to have tun a 2 point conversion for someone.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean, still not quite where we in east TN want it, but looking better.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden NAM at range was pretty tasty:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 18z Euro really tried to pop a low in the Gulf: Next frame it transfers to off of Cape Canaveral, but it is at least there.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro compared to 12z Euro: I can't tell if it has ticked slightly west, or if the trough is more positively tilted.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know he's talking about the MA, but I will take any hint ohf hope that the whole system can tick a bit west. Here'e a comparison of the NAMs mentioned: I think that level of analysis is above my pay grade. They look very similar. The best I can see is that the 3km is quicker to kick out a more consolidated shortwave and there's a little more interaction between the two waves at hour 60.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    another gem from csnavywx
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of the 18z NAM it actually gets a smidge of Gulf moisture back into East TN:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    As long as it’s just mostly severe and not entirely severe. Got to have that thunder in the mountains.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah it was a little better than 0z: looked to me like it tried to phase over western TN and AL
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looked better with the southwest shortwave than the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro, IMO: Brings a more consolidated shortwave out.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just a quick glance at the GEFS and it looks like it is east of the OP, with the mean vort maps out to around hour 78.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope so. Some chunk of that 4 corners shortwave has got to kick out, or everybody loses accept for down east Maine and Nova Scotia, lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    In that set up we can hopefully get one of the northern shortwaves to be an over performing clipper.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour is filled with northern stream sadness. The vort gets so far west it can't manage to get east enough to phase with the secondary s/waves coming in from canada:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's gotten so far west, that the GFS is trying to cut it off this time:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    The western ridge is once again coming in slightly taller on the 18z GFS.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not so great at reading the stormvista maps yet, but it looks like there are quite a few members of the EPS west of the OP: Obviously still not great for us, but I think we would like that western trend to continue as long as possible.
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