Holston_River_Rambler

Volcano eruption in Kamchatka :

I particularly like the suck factor of the 12z GFS that has two cut off upper lows in a row for like 8 days.

Luckily we were spared. It was mostly north of me. But man the wind Saturday afternoon was probably the worst I've seen even with all the "mixing down" wind events we've had. Power was out most of the afternoon and evening.

Some cold as %^%$%#$ readings up here on the plateau on Wunderground this AM: 6 was the lowest I could find near Crossville

Some snow here in Morgan county too this AM.

Seasonal snowfall to date. Check out that Eastman bubble around Kingsport. A zoomed out view:

This is the person who tweets updates:

@Carvers Gap Here is one of the guys running it.

I don't know about the actual course they run (and I think it changes every year a little), but I've gotten some pretty rough miles in there. Last July: And that was all ON trails, lol and it was rough on me. They go off trail, from what I've heard, maybe 40% of the course. They have to climb a power line cut usually too, they call it rat jaw. Neither one of the elevation profiles above are the really steep sections (North Bird Mt and Chimney Tops). Supposedly each Barkley loop is around 26 miles and you have to do 5 in under 60 hours while finding pages from random books Lazarus hides throughout the park. If you've never seen the documentary on the race, I recommend it: http://barkleymovie.com/

Same down here in Morgan county.

0z GFS with the reverse Dandridge Dollop:

0z and 6z still have the storm for next week. CMC and Euro have slightly warmer solutions since they bring the vort. out later. Kind of hard to buy anything at this point, but the ingredients are there.

While we're on plants, I went to see my friend in Boone this weekend and got some exciting weather, my first CAD storm on my way home: Near the intersection of NC 184 and 105: Grandfather Mt Saturday AM:

0z GFS:

On a less cynical note, I have never seen the MJO do this while I've been watching it, so hopefully it means, if nothing else something has changed in the tropics with regards to ENSO. Maybe too late for this year, but hopefully not next.

A new way to fail.

EPS mean has officially gone off the charts:

Will the MJO come in off the RMM charts in phase 8 today? It has been trending a little bit closer on the Euro Ensembles mean each day.

Happy hour GFS gives some love to extreme NE TN, SWVA, and parts of the plateau: This is for the system this Sunday.

We have contact!:

Well another day another dollar. Time to see how many people survived the overnight runs in the MA forum.

Here's an interesting gif with two wundergound stations. One is near me in Morgan County (Plateau), the other is near Rockwood in Roane county (Valley). the plateau location is actually east of the valley location, but seemed to have higher winds earlier. Storms rolled through between 2 and 3ish, it does look like the higher plateau elevations (even only the 800' between these two locations) made a big difference wrt the timing of the wind field. Just eyeballing a location in Haywood county, it looks a lot more like the plateau graph, but with a second substantial uptick:

By the time I got home around 5 the winds had already hit the valley, but there were some hellacious gusts around 7 or so up on the plateau (approx 1300' for MBY) and then it started to slowly wind down.

That's interesting (obviously not good for y'all). I wonder if ground friction held the winds back at our lower elevations? I wasn't up on the plateau yesterday afternoon so I can't say what we had up here.

So did the line of storms outrun the high wind field? TBH, if that is the case, I'm glad they did and couldn't tap into it. Like everyone else said above the wind field seemed to lag a couple of hours behind the storms and the strongest winds didn't really hit here until just after sunset. Everything has died off now though and it is chilly. We've reached the point where 41 feels downright cold.