Holston_River_Rambler

So did the line of storms outrun the high wind field? TBH, if that is the case, I'm glad they did and couldn't tap into it. Like everyone else said above the wind field seemed to lag a couple of hours behind the storms and the strongest winds didn't really hit here until just after sunset. Everything has died off now though and it is chilly. We've reached the point where 41 feels downright cold.

We’ve had some pretty wild gusts up here in Morgan County after dark, but so far seem to have dodged the worst of it.

@Greyhound Those pinwheels are from storm relative velocity under the super resolution category. The OHX one doesn't look quite as "pinwheely" now, but the the Columbus MS radar does: Sorry to use a different sort of image, but I found that the "classic" storm relative velocity looks more like the images on the website I linked above. Pinwheels aside, I just thought it was pretty incredible to be able to see winds changing with height on plain old radar. Low level moisture is moving SSE --> NNW (green arrow) and then the precip associated with the warm front (I think?) is moving SW --> NE (pink arrow)

Overnight CMC was interesting. Euro wasn't too far off. CMC: Euro: CMC absolutely crushes the MA, Le Conte gets 33 inches lol. Pretty good ensemble support for something big somewhere in the east, as others have said: And yes snowmaker it probably is too late and it will probably be cold and dry. Ideally we would get some trees good and loose today so that when their upper branches with buds freeze later this month and we get some good winds, then they'll blow over.

Most of you severe enthusiasts are probably aware of this, but something new to me were "radar pinwheels" https://epod.usra.edu/blog/2008/07/radar-pinwheels-and-wind-shear.html

High wind event likely across the TN Valley. Possibility of straight line winds associated with thunderstorms and tornados. Wind shear visible on OHX radar:

I'll create a thread for it. You can actually see the wind shear on the OHX radar this morning. Not something I think I've ever seen before in out area. Not saying that's never happened, just I haven't noticed it.

Same on the plateau and central eastern great valley around Knoxville

Not a terrible MSLP N hemisphere look at hr 174 on the EPS: Some risk of Miller A/B hybrid, but better than anything so far this winter, lol

I'm trying to post and EPS gif, but only have phone bandwidth at this time. The frame around hour 192 is causing the "brooklyn" met that posts sometimes in the MA forum, to post it with a variety of swears (in a good way), on multiple forums, lol.

Please don't read anything more into this post than what I say: Just never thought I'd see that kind of amplitude in phase 8. GEFS agrees: I've always thought models' initial conditions impact what bizarro fantasy solutions they show, so will be interested to see what wild things they show by about March 10. This hobby is always more interesting to me when there are at least fantasy storms on OP runs, whether they happen or not, or are even realistic, I just enjoy watching.

My ground is drying out though. I'm no longer the owner of a swamp. Gotta get that qpf back up lol.

Euro looked interesting at day 10, lol:

Euro control got on board the fantasy storm train overnight:

12z fantasy storm ftw:

Watching the storm next week its interesting to see the GFS basically go back to what the Euro and CMC were showing a few days ago,. while they seemed to follow it and are now gradually working their way NW. I think what's killed us with this one is that the -NAO has been having a harder time establishing.The better runs had it further west over the Davis Straits. It backed way off and although it is bringing it back, it just isn't as stout. I'm guessing that has to do with fighting La Nina. It's going to be fun to watch how this all unfolds after the 10th. Please know that is not some cryptic assertion that we'll get buried in snow, just fun to watch a blocky pattern. TBH we probably want the March 4th storm to crank up and cut now, to help strengthen the NAO.

It was down here in MoCo. We have a healthy population lol. That one was a particularly fat one though!

If enough people give this the thumbs down new reaction, maybe we can drive the below away: There are some 5" qpf means showing up over the next 10 -15 days on the ensembles.

Euro made a pretty big jump towards yesterdays GFS solution wrt to next week's system: Yesterday the Euro and the CMC had the energy coming out all at once and everything cutting (left gif). 0z Euro last night a piece is able to compress the flow ahead of the main shortwave (right gif). IMO 6z GFS shows a pretty realistic solution which is a compromise between the now far SE Euro and far NW CMC. Although I would still argue that the SE ridge will flex more and some NW adjustments are likely given this year's trends: Besides the ever present SE ridge the biggest question seems to be how much energy is flying around out in front of the main shortwave to compress the flow. In this fast flow N stream La Nina, we probably won't have a realistic idea of how that looks until 3 days out or so. But we should have a -NAO flexing and maybe even a 50/50, so we roll the dice this time with that: That would flood some areas and then snow. That would be a new way to fail, so maybe it works out this time, lol.

Bats are out tonight:

It's even more Miller A like at 18z on the GFS. There were some nice hits (maybe 4 - 5) on the 12z GEFS too. Hot off the press 18z GEFS has some nice members too (and some clunkers) Very few hits on the 12z EPS though. Like Carver's said, it's an 8 - 10 day storm on one model. Sure it's got a low probability of happening, so I would encourage anyone who doesn't want to track it, to not track it.

I just don't know if we've failed in all conceivable ways yet. We've not reached the fullness of our "snow lovers suffering" meter. March could really give us those last few chances to reach new lows.

12z GFS is hitting the sauce early today! I'd say odds still favor a cutter, but who knows and its not like we have any much hope left to lose at this point lol.

March thread is up and running. I can always edit it (at least I think I can) if it all ends up being a bust and just make it a general spring thread.