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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I meant to post this yesterday but didn't get a chance: Never forget, First Creek Flamingo guy at the Fellini Kroger: https://www.knoxtntoday.com/floating-the-flood-flamingo-mans-not-done-yet/ https://www.knoxnews.com/picture-gallery/news/2020/02/07/knoxville-flooding-high-waters-no-match-man-and-his-unicorn/4692960002/
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    That was a beautiful Euro run, no doubt. Too bad it's the "new" Euro. But there is a signal across all ops for a storm that weekend.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's an appetizer though:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's not quite far enough in the run to where I could get the whole system, but I will when the run gets out like 12 more hours.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    The Euro is, I think, about to make up those couple hundred miles with a triple phaser for Valentine's weekend.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The CMC still loves you and wants you to be happy:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Alright long range GFS in banter, work your magic:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS almost went BOOM with our Valentine's day chance:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another interesting dynamic with the Tuesday deal is that there is some hint of a dual jet structure showing up. I will use the NAM for NAM purposes: The red circle could be, I think, a very subtle jet streak, and the blue circle is a relatively more dynamic one. By their powers combined, along with ye olden PVA: We get precip (switching to COD graphic because they show more qpf than tropical Tidbits): And hot off the presses the 6z Euro which keeps it further east: Some things for considering: 1. I'm not really 100% the red circle from my first gif is even a jet streak. If we were really under the dual jet structure, you would think there could be would be more precip shown. 2. Not a lot of deep moisture shown verbatim. Most moisture is 700mb and lower. 3. Any Boom potential IMO is limited to areas east of 81, so foothills and mountains. Even in upper east TN maybe just Carter, Unicoi, and Johnson counties, and maybe even Bristol? 4. More vorticity advecting in from the Plains is really trying to keep this sucker squished, so it could still just be an offshore, washed out, flat mess.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Been going back and forth, but I'm kinda sorta getting a little interested in Tuesday now. Probably not worth any images at this time, but I think there might be an opportunity for one of the shortwaves to amplify more than currently depicted. Or it could still be a flat washed out mess.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was looking at some wunderground station in Cannon county a little while ago and one was 60 and one was 37 !
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hopefully better late than never. Just got finished with a few work things.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Despite my pessimism yesterday, there does seem to be a pretty big signal for some sort of storm Valentines weekend, or just after, details TBD. There looks to be a East asian Mountain Torque event (low pressure to the lee of the Himalayas) over the next few days that should extend the Pac jet: Here is a Webb explanation for a different event in 2018 ( but it is probably the clearest and most succinct explanation of what a mountain torque does, that I've read): You can see how the GFS resolves the added momentum about a week later in the amplification of the AK ridge and subsequent downstream troughing around Valentines weekend. I think it just depends on where that ridge sets up and trough dumps. I can't believe I'm saying this, but a -NAO would be nice. But I do think the relative nearness in time of the mountain torque to the lee of the Himalayas, is giving more than the usual certainty of some sort of trough amplification in the central or eastern US around Valentine's day. Also for you east Asia rule folks, that 12z GFS at 300 was a weenie run Se and east of Japan: I think it actually has to be happening and not in fantasy range for the east Asia rule to count, though, lol.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    I haven't seen anything worth mentioning, looking off an on over the past week or so. I went back and check overnight, just see if there was something that made him mention and this was about the best I could find: The barest hint of a small split at 50mb on that run. There was someone on twitter who posted something about a strat warming showing up on some long range Euro product a while back, so that may be what he was referring to. I also think early March is when it naturally starts to breakdown anyway. Overall looks stout on the GEFS, but one member looks like it is trying:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS FRAM: NBM trend over the past 6 runs: Definitely a but of a SE trend, esp. with the light fzr accumulations.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro throws quite a bit of .qpf back towards Nashville and points west, after the 32 degree line has passed: 12z Euro FRAM ice map:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    There seems to have been a slight trend on the models to push the worst of the FZR to remain NW of I 40 overnight, except for the 6z GFS. But there also seems ot have been a trend to see a little bit more of a secondary piece of energy running the boundary after the main push of precip. The RGEM shows this the best: The NAMs seem to have something like this too, but they don't throw as much precip back. Have to wait and see if any other models pick up on this.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    It probably would help if I read his bio lol! Sometimes I see something and I’m like “ooo shiny, must share!”
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know how reliable this person is, or if this sort of bias is normal for the HRRR, or if it even matters, but something to consider I suppose:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    It drops a pretty decent amount of sleet as it ends, so that run of the Euro has less fzr as the .qpf.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro looks like it jumped southeast a bit, a little more in line with the GFS than the Euro's 6z run.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Also the Feb 5 - 6 deal, if that doesn't happen that's just cruel torture for the some of the I-95 Mid Atlantic folks.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    I really like that day 12+ overrunning set up. Would love to see something like that happen. Hopefully the GFS is having one of its lucid long range moments at 6z and 12z today!
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