Holston_River_Rambler

@Carvers Gap I saw someone ask ChatGP or whatever to generate a forecast in the tone of Cheech on twitter today and it inspired me to try again: I tried asking it to post in the style of specific posters, but sadly, that didn't work out.

Nice 50/50 / -NAO dipole on the 6z GFS. We'll see if it can get reeled in to non fantasy land. Really like to see that 50/50 be a consistent part of the pattern

Do you think since it is the last run of work day, someone(s) at NOAA tweak something in its algorithm throughout the day just a bit (sort of a daily tune up) and that's why we sometimes get "happy hour" solutions? Just to be clear this is mostly meant as a joke., but not entirely.

Two things I'll mention about the SPV stuff this AM. 1. Most of the reputable twitter folks are just talking about the initial actual SSWE happening soon (the wind reversal). And that's fair. It's within a few days and will be the official day of the event. But if you go further out into what is typically la la model land there's a second pulse that obliterates the SPV after day 10. That's probably the event that has the most potential to eventually drip down to offer some potential for high latitude blocking. Here is the first event in a different graphic than usual just to change things up here is the second event in the usual tropical tidbits graphics: 2. Models haven't run far enough out in time yet to see the second event start to drip down: The red shows the wind reversal and it has only sunk down to around 50mb by the end of the GFS run.

I’ve finally got some very wet snow mixing in too.

You've summoned it!

Got nice rainbow pic from family up in Kingsport:

That lightning showing up on GOES derived imagery as well:

I think what is going on with regards to the weird feature on radar I posted a few posts above is that there is a little front swinging in from the SE that denotes the cold pool associated with the upper low. Could be very wrong, but that is my best guess for now.

Just saw a lightning strike on radar scope in Monroe County between Tellico Plains and Madisonville: that band is swinging your way Knoxtron

There some really weird radar depictions this morning as well: South of a line from Huntsville, AL to about Dalton, GA it almost looks like the precip is being warped. I have no clue if that is a data issue or is there is some weirdness going on wrt the precip type/ freezing elevation and radar beam. Correlation coefficient shows some sort of a precip type line there moving N and W:

If you were to tell me this satellite image was from early November and showed a Tropical storm after it made landfall, I would believe you: If you had the cold boundary for it to ride, it would have some of those higher, colder cloud tops to the NW, a nice baroclinic leaf. We have a half leaf Looks like some places on the plateau though (not me sadly) are getting close to if nothing else some fzr:

No question now. All rain.

I would almost swear there's very wet snow falling here now mixed with rain. It's so hard to tell after dark. In these sorts of evaporative cooling situations sometimes I feel like you can get wet snow at onset of precip before it changes over to rain. i would be very interested to see what @Shocker0 and @Knoxtron have right now.

We've reached the "giant hail" classification on radar scope now. I really don't think there is any way there is any sort of hail let alone giant hail. I think the radar just scans horizontally and vertically and makes a "best guess" for precip type. There must just be some goosefeathers and graupnel falling just above the surface:

It would be so cool to have a drone that could go up about 2000' in that area right now.

MPING just shows rain, but it could just be raining so hard with big drops of melted snow mixed in.

I think I can make out some wet snow mixed in on this camera on the MDOT website: Just east of Jackson.

The red is apparently hail, even though I have a hard time believing that. Look at it now, lol: The radar site is under the "o" in Jackson in the above image. It looks like mixed precip or melting has overtaken the radar site on Correlation coefficient:

I can't see us worrying about rates with all that lift over central MS heading our way. Maybe downsloping takes some away? Some of that is bright banding but I don't think it all is. I think a lot of it is just hellacious lift.

There is some strong bright banding over MS right now near Jackson, MS. radar site is KDGX Here is a still image since the gif resolution is pretty low. I can usually look a correlation coefficient and see a rain snow level or line, but there is A LOT going on in that radar image and its over my head. Here is the hydrometeor classification for those interested. If it is right, snow is really trying to reach the surface: The light blue is "dry snow" and the darker blue is "wet snow". The pinkish color is "graupnel" and the red is "hail," the yellow is "big drops" and the green is "little drops." sorry for the random quotes but I was trying to denote that those terms on radarscopes, not mine.

SPV looks like it will be annihilated by the end of the month. Those gifs are starting about hr 90, so it's not all that far out there now. Not sure the exact day that we will see a SSW, but I think one will be official in the next 10 - 15 days. Here is the 3D vortex: Now we wait and see how this will play out by the first week of March or so. I don't necessarily think we will see impacts here by then, but I suspect there will be some impact on the N. Hemisphere's pattern by then. For once in a long time, the MJO signal wants to fly through the warm phases on the Euro and GEFS suites: Looks to me like it is trying to make it fully into the western Pac in 7 - 10 days. I would almost be willing to say we have a shot at a storm in 20 - 25 days based on that progression, and how the pattern has been playing out since Fall, so March 3 - 8? How the literal fallout from the SPV lands could impact this progression constructively or destructively though IMO. For example, let's look at the Feb 2018 SSWE that occurred around the same time this one will. Radar illustrates the pattern's evolution from progressive to blocky, specifically a -NAO. Radar loop starting Feb 24, 2018: SE ridge city. Boundary primarily over the TN and OH Valleys. Around the 28th, things start to change: The boundary is still in relatively the same area at first, but after the first wave rides it, notice how that storm kind of gets stuck over New England. After that instead of everything moving from the TX panhandle to the OH valley, you see most shortwaves running from the Midwest to either East TN or a bit north of us in the Mid Atlantic. That would be an NAO. From Feb 20 to March 1st the N. American H5 pattern goes from this: to this: Looks like the Pacific pattern was not so great that year (imagine that), but the NAO at least offset that a bit. This year we have had a pretty regular window of a week or so each month where the Pacific gets a bit better. Can we time that up with an -NAO like we did in December? Will shorter wave lengths help us this time around? I think we want to start to look for some sort of a jet extension. Right now it is really retracted. In the left exit region of the Pac jet, you usually get a trough. For now that has been in the far western Aleutians or Kamchatka: Ideally we want the jet extended to around Hawaii, so we get a semi permanent trough over the central Aleutians or Bering sea and that ever popular trough just east of Hawaii and ridging into the EPO and PNA regions. Look for reliable people on twitter to start talking about an east Asia mountain torques. I forget which one we want, but one will give us a jet extension. We just don't want the jet to extend too far lol. If it is all the way across the Pac like it was in early January that is more of a super El Nino pattern that floods the CONUS with Pacific air and you get the Central Canada Hudsons Bay ridge downstream of a mean trough over AK and western Canada, instead of -NAO type ridging.

MRX and WPC are expecting pretty much zilch below 3500' and even only a mix on the plateau above 2000'. MRX does favor SW VA enough for a WWA. WPC was much less bullish in their overnight disco. For posterity:

Welp, here we go: Strengthening, cut off upper low, ample Gulf moisture with storms firing in the gulf aligned meridionaly (so no cut off of moisture), cooling cloud tops over MS and AL headed our way, and a for @PowellVolz, a NE wind as evidenced by the low clouds streaming into middle TN from eastern KY. Good luck to everyone!