Holston_River_Rambler

7 flurries here. Also saw some sandhill cranes migrating on these winds.

A lightning strike popped just north of Louisville KY with a squall. I was kind of hoping that the clearing might enhance lapse rates for places that see snow.

Pretty good radar returns over eastern KY this AM well ahead of the shortwave rotating through this evening and overnight. Looks like folks above 2500 feet could already be seeing some snow.

Euro OP at 240 looks like a better pattern evolving:

Kind of an aside, but something I noticed beyond the usual SPV talk, is what's modeled to happen over Greenland at 50mb: temps and anomalies: heights: With some of the talk about potential NAO blocking in January, this is something to watch to see if it can percolate down to atmo. levels where it matters more for us. Even the GEFS mean is pretty enthusiastic: The Euro isn't quite as enthused: Obviously this is still way out there, but something to think about down the road.

End of the RGEM looked nice for upslope Monday but it is the end of a hi res run.

One thing I've been wondering, and it might not have much bearing on the upcoming pattern, is how will this jet extension behave when it hits the convection at the dateline and eastward? How will that convection modulate it and what do I mean by that? We've seen these jet extensions that aim at the west coast in the past and they usually roast us, but I'll be interested to see what happens when that extension actually gets to the more convectively active part of the Pacific. The whole point of watching all this tropical convection all the time, when there isn't anything more immediate to analyze, is to see how it impacts the Pac jet. I think one of the reasons we like Ninos for blocking is that these jet extensions, as long as they're not Godzilla strength, add Momentum to atmosphere in the higher latitudes and thats why they can have more blocking and SPV disruptions. Does the ongoing convection strengthen it? Weaken it? Redirect it a bit? How exactly will the convection look when the jet extension happens? The much feared jet extension is still 3 days away as far as I can tell. The ongoing dateline convection has already changed some over the past couple of days, but it seems to me that the tropics along and east of the dateline still look much more active than when we've had these jet extensions and accelerations over the past Ninas. IDK, maybe just a bunch of ramblings after lunch, but something to think about since there's not much else going on. PS: After the 12z GFS, the "Is this a deviation from the inevitable Torchmas, or is it another head fake?" debate in some of the more... I don't know...fussy subforums, should be fun over the next few days for those of you (like me) who like to watch those kinds of things.

I can't wait to see if the NAM spits out some wild solutions with this weekends storm. The way it handles convection, it may have a tropical system in the Gulf or Atlantic at some point with like a 950mb pressure, lol.

I was just poking around on the satellite for tropical convection and noticed how much moisture this upcoming system has to work with. I've seen these moisture trains back into the Pacific, but never one like this in the Gulf to help pump up the precip:

Actually Pivotal has it too:

Some of the soundings from the 18z GFS show snow at the mountain tops. The ever-reliable for showing the most snow College of Dupage site even has it on their maps: the time stamp for that is 09z Monday

I think this big jet extension that is coming was poorly forecast at longer ranges. It seems to have been caused by a Siberian high that is sinking down into China and causing one of those mountain torque events that get sub seasonal jet weenies so excited. It seems, to me at least, to have caught some of the folks favoring a colder second half of Dec. off guard. If I'm remembering correctly this was all started by that mid-level Greenland high that turned less into a -NAO and more into a -AO and played some role in sending a lot of the polar cold to Siberia. Here is an image of the higher heights from about 6 days ago, I tried to make a gif, but giphy is having a fit right now: Here is the high in the process of dropping down late next week and the jet extension that comes after Big high descent into east Asia is still a few days off and then the jet extension a few days after that. So, hypothetically this could still change, but the mechanics of the big Siberian high -> jet extension seem like they've worked brutally well the past few years that I've been watching this at least. This jet extension gives us the big Chinooks that scour the cold in Canada. All this seems to have evolved pretty quick over the past week or so. Not so long ago, that even the warm loving folks thought that initial Greenland high could be the start of some early cold fro the eastern US: It didn't play out that way, but it is what it is. One thing I'll add is that I haven't seen this much tropical convection near or east of the dateline since I've been watching: It's not perfect but it's not the absolute cluster we've seen is some recent years. Hopefully that's a good sign from when the jet backs off.

On MRX radar's correlation coefficient it looks like snow levels are falling pretty quickly.

I'm already down to about 40 at just under 1300 feet on the Cumberland plateau, hopefully it won't be too much longer for y'all.

https://x.com/clarksvilleclay/status/1733578669933666550?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g

SREF plumes average 0.25 (Knox) - 2 inches Wise/ Roane Mt. Looks like my mood flakes are still on the menu. 18z NAM even looked a little healthier wrt precip.

Guess I'll go ahead and pull the trigger: …THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 0Z MONDAY... * WHAT…Thunder in the Mountains and plateaus is possible * WHERE...Plateaus and mountains east TN, southwest VA, western NC, and eastern KY * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening * IMPACTS…thunder bolts and lightning, very very frightening PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Thunder in the Mountains WATCH is issued when the risk of THUNDER AND LIGHTNING is significantly increased during meteorological winter, but the weather weenie issuing the watch is nervesome about a warning. It is intended to provide additional lead time for those who who may wish watch the SREF plumes for anafrontal shortwave snow or a potential pattern change.

I've just been spending a lot of time (probably moire than is healthy) in the main forum El Nino discussion thread watching the folks in there to see where they think things are going to fall out. I think it started out as a ENSO discussion but has kind of e- or de-volved (depending on your perspective) into a tropical forcing/ pattern progression thread. as I see it there are roughly two sides: The bluewave/ snowman19 group who think that, to paraphrase Eric Webb from a month or so ago, that a hostile Pac jet, amped up by some sort of death standing wave in MJO phases 4/5/6, will pop an Aleutian so far east it will flood the CONUS with Pac puke. The 40/70 Benchmark/ brooklyn99/ griteater group who think a warm December is par for the course, but this will not be like 2015/16 winter (an analogue some of the other group seem to like). They think, like the ensembles/ monthlies/ seasonals are showing, that the Pac will be less hostile and assume a canonical Nino look, like many others have said elsewhere, as we move into early Jan. The above discussion is getting a tad testy sometimes (what can I say, its the internet, I like to watch). While the above summaries may be somewhat over simplified from what the above people are arguing, there seem to be a "we torch more often than not" group and a "decent Nino coming" group. I was just prompted to post the earlier comment since I know Daniel Boone has been somewhat active in that thread as an endorser (at least to my mind) of the 40/70 benchmark/ griteater/ brooklyn99 group and it seemed like he might be leaning more Bluewavey with the comment about the IO and the MJO. Dan, didn't mean anything bad by it, just poking the bear a little so to speak. All this is probably a little bantery, but I have found the above discussion a useful supplement from a seasonal perspective. Who among us isn't a little gun shy after all the recent La Ninas, neutrals, and a weak Nino though? It seems like everything is coming to a head with the current MJO wave. Does it spend more time that forecast in the 4/5/6 phases? Or does it continue strongly into the west Pac to and past the dateline? Does something totally unexpected happen? Can I type a little longer until the 18z GFS is finished running? Probably not. Right now I am with the 40/70, brooklyn99, griteater, and dare I say Carver's Gap group and think this is definitely a different beast from 15/16, but I guess we'll see how it goes.

We're not all jumping on the snowman19 and bluewave wagon?

Kind of a compromise on the EPS overnight for this weekend. A few less members showing snow, but a few more members showing a higher end potential. Here is Elizabethton, TN but most locations from the N Plateau in TN and KY to the east look similar. Someplace like Richlands, VA might have the best upside potential: I would say overall on the operational runs things are looking a little better, but not enough to get too excited yet. RGEM: Euro: Too little too late with the N stream s/w boost, but my bar is moodflakes. I feel like this set up looks really similar to one from last year, but don't really want to go back and dig through gifs at this time. Pretty wild look at the end of the OP 6z GFS too (300 hours +)

I'm so sorry to hear all that BuCo, but I'm glad to hear you have a good prognosis. My dad had some strange fungal infection and I'm embarrassed to say I don't remember what it was. It supposedly almost always affected lungs, but he somehow got it on a wound in his skin. He also had a pretty compromised immune system, but he had to take some sort of antifungal for a year too.

Some chance for our every popular wave riding a front solution with this weekend's system from the plateau east:

Actually @fountainguy97 I see there was another storm you were talking about now (EPS member 45)

EPS member 49: