CheeselandSkies

Wisconsin, the land of cheese and random tornado warnings on marginal risk days.

Not amplified in the right places though if you like spring for storms.

Raining harder now than it ever did during "Cristobal" yesterday.

Maybe Cristobal has a little more up his sleeve than I thought. Wind Advisory now hoisted for MKX's eastern counties (not including Dane, but does include Rock). 999.1 MB at KMSN as of 3 PM. Don't see a whole lot of sub-1000 readings.

For as meteorologically unusual an event as this is (apparently the last time the center of a remnant TC circulation crossed into WI was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, and that only clipped the SE corner), it appears the impacts won't be all that memorable. We're not under any wind headlines, not even an advisory. Just looks like a run-of-the-mill inclement weather day.

Gorgeous morning here so far.

Naturally. What has happened to "King" Euro? Time was, if it was the one showing an impact event you sat up and took notice. And if the GFS was popping PDS TOR soundings everywhere you said "Meh, I'll wait and see what the Euro says."

Yeah, after flirting with it in 2006, '09 and (IMO) 2018, I think 1988 has officially been dethroned as the worst season in the history of the practice (I was 2 at the time so I don't remember it personally). Ironically, our chief meteorologist said today that year was also the last time the center of a remnant tropical cyclone tracked into Wisconsin (Hurricane Gilbert, although that was at a more seasonable time of year for such an event-September). I was hoping for some good storms to take my mind off the COVID pandemic, but instead I think the pandemic and more recently the Floyd fallout have taken my mind off the lack of storms.

Looks like the good wind whiffs south-central WI to the east. Gets into the eastern part of MKX's CWA though, and they are still pretty mum about the possibility.

MKX not really buying into that yet. My point forecast for Tuesday night says "winds could gust as high as 30 MPH." Wednesday is "A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75."

I can't help but wonder if without Cristobal in the picture we'd be getting a more predictable/high-ceiling early June regional severe weather event with that shortwave.

Does the fact that Cristobal has been stuck over the Yucatan for several days and will likely have to rebuild its tropical convective core from near-scratch as it comes back across the GOM have any bearing on impacts for us vs. some of the runs which showed it getting back over water quicker and becoming a Cat 1--2 hurricane? If some of these runs are to be believed it could become quite a bit deeper over the Midwest than it ever does as a tropical system.

@madwx direct hit on us by Wednesday morning lol

About half an hour ago.

Yeah, seems like HRRR whiffed pretty bad. Did not show robust development this far east this early.

HRRR still doesn't want to give southern WI much of anything. Shows Madison remaining nearly dry overnight.

Kinda dredges up memories of summer 2012, although it didn't often get that humid.

Pretty violent outbreak and kinda far south for the time of year. By June you think of northern parts of IL/IN/OH plus MI/WI/IA/MN getting in on the action. I mean the affected parts of IL/IN are roughly those along the Tri-State (mid-March) path.

1630 update: 30% hail probabilities trimmed away from us, 5% TOR removed, but hatched area added to 30% wind.

Is it me or is the SPC site getting worse and worse with not displaying outlook updates? 1325 and the 13Z update still does not show for me no matter how many times I refresh. It's available on COD (as usual) which shows it was issued at 1258. Thank goodness it's not this bad for shorter-fuse products like watches and MDs.

Pretty big expansion of the enhanced risk into WI on the Day 1, now clips the Madison area. Still not overly impressed with the CAMS, though.

Despite our being in the slight risk, the 3K NAM (notorious for blowing up giant MCCs at the slightest provocation) doesn't show southern WI getting much Tuesday night. WRF-ARW seeems to concur. HRW NMMB and WRF-NSSL (not too familiar with those last three CAMS vs. the 3K NAM and HRRR) at least give us some thunder, but not looking to impressive either. This looks like yet another year where severe events go from missing us to the south, right to missing us to the north.

Bring it.

Par for the course, but I wouldn't mind an actual decent ring of fire setup that actually affects southern Wisconsin.