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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Clouds have come back in force this afternoon.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Hard to say. On a synoptic level, this is a pretty decent setup at least for southern WI. The big question mark though is whether that cap can be broken, especially before dark. Almost has the feel of many a springtime Plains setup in that regard. The annoying thing is, in most springtime setups in this area the problem is not enough cap to prevent early/messy initiation. Edit: 16Z HRRR says no joy except some mess across western lower Michigan. Local soundings are solidly capped.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    15.4 degrees C at Omaha according to SPC and that will be advecting into the risk area on southwesterly winds at that layer. It represents a quite strong cap which is why @hlcater is not enthusiastic about this setup.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Not super pumped with those 700mb temps but definitely worth keeping an eye on things locally this afternoon/evening.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Yep, some nice boomers this morning. Probably the best all warm season, just in time for it to end. Vis sat shows much of IA and SW WI clearing nicely. Clearing line should be passing us here shortly.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Well, you were the guy who scored Kalona (ONLY storm that day that sustained long enough to do that) and Iowa is notorious for stupid things like that. Probably not worth the drive for me from Madison, though with work at 3AM Monday.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Lacking the visible inversion there and 0 on the SBCINH. SRH and lapse rates look good, perhaps the best I've seen in this region this whole lousy year. Low level winds look weak and veered, but the winds veer further and increase nicely in the 850-700mb layer. What is the significance of the temperature and dewpoint coming together (100% RH) just below 850mb?
  8. CheeselandSkies
    g0oOFus is proving worthless for predicting Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis >48 hours out this year. Euro hasn't been much better but at least it's trying. Also, GFS actually does show systems. I refer you to: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2849976#p2849976
  9. CheeselandSkies
    How does the one in the Gulf not landfall??
  10. CheeselandSkies
    @hlcater, where and when are those forecast soundings valid for? Off what model?
  11. CheeselandSkies
    @ldub23 this season. TBH I'm starting to get there, too and so are some others based on the state of the season thread lately.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Maybe super-compact intense hurricanes like Andrew and Charley had similar pressure drops in their cores.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Fascinating to think how tropical cyclones in one basin could influence the eventual track of others 180 degrees around the planet. They just seem too far away for that to be possible, but it happens.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    So in other words, they are "upgrading" the GFS again just a year after the FV3 became operational?
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Guess we'll have to busy ourselves tracking more hurricanes...although @ldub23 says there's too much SAL.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    Down to slight, 5% moved to our NE. I'll keep on saving the gas money for next spring.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    (Cartman voice) Weak. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1609.html
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Yep, looks like 2020 will join 2018 as a one-and-done chase year for me (August 10th was the only time I got out, to get in the northern fringes of the derecho). In 2018 I didn't get out till a day in October, when a bunch of tornado-warned minisupercells randomly blew up (none actually produced in WI).
  19. CheeselandSkies
    I think we are hosed for later today, the way this line is moving in southern MN with some training/back-building in far northern IA it's not going to clear up here by noon unless it breaks up and dissipates. *Ironically there are actually some breaks in the clouds now (which I wasn't expecting, as I was expecting the overnight line to be here right now or within the next hour) so maybe it can intensify some and be the main show. Still probably nothing worth chasing.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    Of course ARX radar is down as I want to see what this line coming in is doing. Apparently it was a planned outage of which today is the last day, so naturally there would be severe weather in the area. https://www.weather.gov/arx/SLEP_pedestal
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Warnings going out locally this afternoon. Wasn't really expecting the action until overnight and tomorrow.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Perhaps someone more thoroughly versed in atmospheric physics can chime in: Why is Laura not getting yanked up by/merging with the midlatitude s/w trough that presumably is responsible for today and tomorrow's severe threat, the way Cristobal was in June?
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Just came on to say that SPC upped us to 5%. Worth noting we just passed the 15th anniversary of 8/18/05, which was a fairly subtle warm front setup. Will see if the hurricane remnants to the south throw a wrench in things (big Gulf Coast hurricane was about 10 days away in 2005), but the juice should already be in place up here. Will definitely be keeping a close eye on things tomorrow afternoon. 12Z 3K NAM has a bow echo about to hit us at 00Z Saturday, HRRR has nothing. Gotta love the long-range CAMs.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    Harvey, Michael, Hanna and now Laura. Bombing on approach to the Gulf Coast is the new weakening.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Laura is beginning to star in some next-level satellite porn. I wonder if @ldub23 is getting his fix or if it only counts if it gets named east of 40W?
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