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George BM

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Everything posted by George BM

  1. Moving deeper into spring. Happy Pollen Sufferers Awareness Month!
  2. New month starting. Baseball. NHL Playoffs w/ the Capitals? Booze consumption. Legit severe?
  3. Some digital severe to enjoy from the 12z GFS today over Sterling, VA. Long range caveats (of course). But if nothing else it shows that we're reaching that TOY where our threats start becoming "CAPE-ier."
  4. June 13, 2013. A strong morning MCS stabilized the atmosphere a bit and we were downgraded to a SLGT by the 1630z update. Parts of the region particularly from northern/central Loudoun county eastwards into Montgomery and Howard counties and perhaps beyond got decent storms that afternoon w/ 40-50 kt effective bulk shear and up to 1,000J/kg MLCAPE.
  5. A lot of the lightning bolts from the I-95 storms last night were strong w/ peak currents between 50-100 kiloamps (some were over 100kA). Generally the vast majority of bolts produce peak currents of roughly 20-30kA give or take.
  6. With cold temperature profiles and steep surface to 600mb lapse rates some of the most intense showers on Saturday could contain some graupel despite surface temps reaching 50+F. A rogue lightning discharge or two may even occur should any convection get deep enough.
  7. I saw a flash of lightning in the 11pm hour last night. I, however, did not hear thunder. The storms went to my east. Herndon, VA.
  8. I'm thinking maybe some of us may hear thunder later this evening w/ some small elevated CAPE. The surface looks too stable for anything severe-wise up in these parts though areas, mainly south of Fredericksburg, could see some enhanced wind gusts and/or a low-level meso w/ convection rooted closer to the surface there.
  9. There actually is a non-zero chance of some convection on Saturday. Models such as the NAM show at least a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ decent shear. Perhaps a few lightning strikes and/or enhanced wind gusts? (General/MRGL type activity)
  10. Herndon, VA 11/30/2021: T 1/03/2022: 6.0" 1/07/2022: 4.8" 1/16-17/2022: 2.8" 1/20/2022: T 1/28/2022: 0.8" 2/13/2022: 1.4" 3/12/2022: 2.5" ... Total as of March 13, 2022: 18.3"
  11. 8am: 0.5" (currently mod snow/ blowing snow) Herndon, VA.
  12. @WinterWxLuvr making me feel tingly with his reports.
  13. Yeah. Do you see the moon right now? Basically dead overhead.
  14. from LWX afternoon disco: The combination of moderate to heavy snowfall and very high winds could produce localized near blizzard conditions tomorrow morning, making conditions very hazardous for travel. A Blizzard Warning was considered, but confidence wasn`t high enough in the quarter mile visibility requirement being met for three hours straight. Brief snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour can`t be ruled out for within the aforementioned intense frontogenetic snowfall band tomorrow morning. The greatest opportunity for this to occur in the metro areas would be between 8 and 11 AM. Steady snow will gradually wind down from west to east during the early to middle portions of tomorrow afternoon.
  15. That's my favorite video from that event. The day Cedar Rapids, Iowa became 'Rapids, Iowa'.
  16. IAD with a 44kt (51mph) wind gust. RMK AO2 PK WND 19044/1600 T02330128
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