George BM

Welcome to Meteorological Fall!

Unique seeing both of you desert rats with more rain than me for the month despite my wet total. Just like last September.

I measured 2.2" of rain in the gauge tonight with it still raining lightly. I'm up to 7.08" for the month of August. A wet month.

This mornings convection appears to be developing off of an EML between ~850-750mb. 750mb fits pretty closely with where the cloud bases have been. (8,000+ft)

IAD at 99F.

There's the HA for tomorrow. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 236 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ040-051-053>055-501-502- 505-506-526-527-280245- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0015.240828T1700Z-240828T2300Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Laurel, Gaithersburg, Washington, Ballenger Creek, Herndon, Lisbon, Alexandria, Sterling, Culpeper, Centreville, Jarrettsville, Baltimore, Elkton, McLean, Ashburn, Greenbelt, Franconia, Rockville, Camp Springs, Odenton, Chantilly, College Park, Dale City, Arnold, Manassas, Turnbull, Reston, Bowie, Frederick, Ellicott City, Arlington, Purcellville, Annapolis, Columbia, Falmouth, Haymarket, Warrenton, Severn, Leesburg, Clinton, Suitland-Silver Hill, Severna Park, Damascus, Silver Spring, Annandale, Lake Ridge, Germantown, Falls Church, Glen Burnie, Cockeysville, Bethesda, Reisterstown, Eldersburg, Montclair, Aberdeen, South Gate, Westminster, and Woodbridge 236 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees expected. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. && $$

But also a non-zero severe chance with a bit of an EML moving overhead. Seems like there may be a bit of a cap to break and timing with the front is still in question but, otherwise, CAPE (and DCAPE) look decent enough with a NW flow.

13 years ago we were grooving.

Cloudy, breezy and a cool 67 at Dulles after 11am. Fall!

I hadn't been following moon news but I knew I wasn't crazy when the moon seemed a little bigger and brighter than normal during my predawn run this morning. Looked gorgeous.

A bit of training action got me to about 1.02" from this afternoons heavy downpours. Winds gusted to 25+mph at one point with an embedded weak downburst. Up to near 4.15" of rain for August. (Herndon, VA)

The 12z hrrr was fairly aggressive with CAPE for tomorrow afternoon (locally 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) with good looking sim-radar across a good portion of the area. SPC has upgraded the immediate DC suburbs eastwards to a SLGT for tomorrow as well.

Hazy.

Measured roughly 1.97" from late Wednesday night through today. Had some gusts to near 30mph this morning. (Herndon, VA) Not bad.

Up to 1.8" since Wednesday night here. (Herndon, VA) Some 20-30mph S/SSE wind gusts this morning. The strongest surface winds (35-40+mph gusts) appear to be mostly along and east of the convective band bisecting the DC beltway.

Correlation coefficient.

New Tornado warning with the Middleburg storm.

Vrot near 45kts with the couplet for one radar frame. Pretty strong.

Warned.

Just got Tornado warned.

That cell to the east of it is looking good as well.

I'm assuming 50/20 tor probs?

Flood Watch expanded eastwards through most of the area. Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 509 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-502-506-526-527- 090515- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0021.240808T2109Z-240810T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Westminster, Chantilly, Herndon, Aberdeen, Odenton, Lisbon, Damascus, Turnbull, College Park, Washington, Arlington, Laurel, Germantown, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Montclair, Greenbelt, Gaithersburg, Clinton, Camp Springs, Columbia, Annandale, Leesburg, Dale City, Lake Ridge, Alexandria, Baltimore, Ashburn, Ellicott City, Manassas, Eldersburg, Arnold, Jarrettsville, Reisterstown, Falls Church, Rockville, Silver Spring, South Gate, Cockeysville, Woodbridge, Elkton, Annapolis, Severn, Sterling, Suitland-Silver Hill, Haymarket, Franconia, Centreville, Bethesda, McLean, Reston, and Bowie 509 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northwest Prince William and Southern Fauquier. * WHEN...Through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The remnants of Debby will move northward through the area, leading to heavy rainfall this evening into Friday. A widespread 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall is expected within the Watch area, with localized storm totals up to 6 inches. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$

Exactly 1" here since last night. (Herndon, VA) Up to 2.15" for August.

I'd say so.