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George BM

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Everything posted by George BM

  1. There's a good chance that I won't hear a single rumble of thunder this month. Not to common to not hear any thunder in the month of May here. There may have been audible thunder at my location on the 20th but I was busy doing some things and didn't notice.
  2. Different view of the same dust devil.
  3. Extreme Congratulations! A Severe Celebration Warning is in effect.
  4. This will be the last of the smoky haze for a bit. Definitely the haziest May that I can remember... at least when it comes to smoke being aloft in the atmosphere.
  5. 54/52 at IAD as of last hour w/, of course, hazy skies.
  6. Indeed. Probably not much happening with it but NHC has a 10% lemon on it.
  7. GFS... Anyways... currently 57/55 at IAD.
  8. A relatively thick band of smoke from Canada's fires moving in overhead this morning. The sun will look dark and strange. 61/50 at IAD.
  9. Tomorrow looks hazy with smoke layer currently over Ontario moving overhead.
  10. Here comes a little of that Alberta fire smoke haze for sunset.
  11. The GFS shows MLCAPE >1000J/kg on Monday in the region w/ that modest NW flow. We are getting closer to peak severe season in these parts.
  12. Starting off cool and breezy w/ damp soil.
  13. Forecast Discussion Tuesday, June 20, 2023 10:58AM EDT Flash Flood Watch in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until 5am EDT Wednesday, June 21, 2023. Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until further notice. Discussion: Heavy rains will continue to overspread the region as the center of Tropical storm Bret moves up the Chesapeake Bay. Interaction with a shortwave trough to the west over the Ohio Valley will help enhance lift and, therefore, the rainfall in the area extending roughly 50-100mi west of the center. This, of course, will put these enhanced tropical rainbands over The DC metro and the western half of the Baltimore metro. With Pwats of around 2.5”, high freezing levels (~15-16kft) and strong forcing from the trough to the west a large 50+ mile wide band of 2-3”+/hr rainfall rates w/ even higher rates in embedded bands. This will allow much of the area between I-81 and the Chesapeake Bay to receive upwards of 12-18”+ of rain w/ local amounts eclipsing 2' possible. This will lead to catastrophic flooding not only in flood prone areas but also flooding in many areas that don’t normally flood or have NEVER flooded before. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur over the region between midday and 8pm this evening. Another factor from Bret will be strong NE, northerly, then NW winds. The highest winds will occur between 2pm this afternoon and 9pm this evening when winds could gust 40 to 60mph. This may lead to scattered to numerous power outages from fallen trees especially when considering how wet it’s already been since the end of April. … Bottom line is that this is the beginning of a very high impact event for the region. Impacts from this will be felt for many weeks or even months. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM
  14. Torrential rain w/ 25+ mph gusts when it came through here in Herndon. A few lightning strikes.
  15. Nearly 2"/hr... wait... wrong precip-type.
  16. 0.88" so far at IAD. Getting breezier with a 27kt gust there.
  17. April 6, 2017. February 7, 2020. Not that I believe it will be like those events but those are two examples of what you mentioned. Deep-low, neg-tilt trough...
  18. Wow 89F?! The storms are going to go BALLISTIC over you.
  19. This seems like a less severe version of April 6, 2017 when there were 7 EF0s and widespread 50+mph gusts... at least in Virginia.
  20. When the line moved through Herndon earlier... Brief gusts peaking at 35+mph followed by brief (1-2min)torrential rain/pea-sized hail w/ gusty breezes. Sporadic to occasional lightning.
  21. @Maestrobjwa When you type in "@poster" a list of posters with the first letter or few letters of the name you're typing out should appear below the curser. This list will diminish as you continue typing out the name until you are left only with the poster that you want. Though you can click on their name before fully typing it out if you see it in the list.
  22. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the region now. NOAA weather radio.
  23. IAD has tied today's record high of 88F so far.
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