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George BM

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Everything posted by George BM

  1. A little bit of everything for all preferences verbatim.
  2. Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out until 9pm for much of the area.
  3. ~1.45" in the gauge from yesterday. Brief gusts into the low 40s(mph) w/ the initial line... pedestrian IMBnFY.
  4. This got lost in the severe tracking but that 12z GFS run for Friday the 18th was total lolism. Temps in the mid 80s+ at the crack of dawn w/ 110+F highs across the region during the afternoon. OBVIOUSLY 18z is more realistic with no Desert SW-like heat.
  5. Going on 270 posts in the severe thread today w/ storms not even in the main region yet. Impressive winter-like activity.
  6. It's actually from the same link you shared yesterday. Thanks for that, btw.
  7. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic to the southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Scattered showers and isolated storms are forecast to be ongoing over the OH Valley Monday morning with more widely spaced convection trailing west-southwest into the Mid South/Ozarks. Considerable cloud cover with northward extent over a large moist/warm sector will limit destabilization into portions of PA and north. Farther south, heating of a very moist boundary layer will yield a moderate to very unstable airmass (1500 to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) from PA southward into the southern Appalachians. Multiple bands and clusters will likely begin to develop towards midday over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians. Less certain is convective timing over the TN Valley where a large spread of model solutions is currently depicted. Nonetheless, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon and become quite extensive from northern AL/GA into PA/VA/WV/MD. A mix of semi-discrete cells and clusters are possible initially and a risk for all severe hazards is expected given favorable shear profiles for storm organization/low-level rotation. Upscale growth is expected as storms move into the northern VA/MD and Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the late afternoon/early evening where the wind risk will seemingly be maximized. Much of the activity will eventually move east of the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening and areas farther south through the Carolina Piedmont and into the coastal plain. Fun sounding disco for this region.
  8. MJJ ONI: 0.8C (nearest tenth deg) MJJ RONI: 0.33C
  9. Where are you now? Northern MD?
  10. A band of relatively thick smoke is currently moving overhead. It looks like it's overcast and the sunlight is very dim and orangish.
  11. Wow. IAD w/ more than twice that (5.09") just miles away. Hope you get more hits this month.
  12. Welcome to the second hottest month of the year. Dewpoints currently in the 50s.
  13. Today: Partly sunny early, then clouds increasing late w/ a few showers possible. Record high temperatures expected. High 73. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%. Tonight: Showers and thundershowers early, then a steady soaking rain overnight. Some snow or sleet may mix in late. Low near 35. SSW winds at 10 to 20 mph shifting to NE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall possibly over one inch. Monday: A wind-driven heavy snow throughout the day with blizzard conditions expected. Thunder possible. A morning high of 34 with temps falling into the lower 20s by the afternoon. Winds N at 25 to 40 mph. Snow accumulations of 18 to 24 inches expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph. Monday Night: Windy. Snow showers early, then skies clearing overnight. Low near 10. Winds NW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulations of less than one inch.
  14. Yeap. Good call. Funny enough it was IAD that would take the triple 98s.
  15. Some of you folks probably got verified severe winds(50+kts) from storms two days in a row.
  16. Lansdowne and Belmont getting spanked by a microburst(?). Some 60-70mph pixels from TIAD radar there.
  17. A Hazel redux would sure be fun. ... IAD down to 77/72 w/ light rain.
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