George BM

Fairly wet start to Meteorological Fall in general.

Thread created August 23, 2011 at 1:51pm edt. Earthquake occured August 23, 2011 at 1:51pm edt. I'm just picturing Kenny weenieing bigly ninjaly whipping up the earthquake thread while mass chaos ensues all around him.

A slightly smokey sunset this evening.

Is that lightning detector actually accurate with the strike locations?

The storm west of Manassas actually seemed to have some weak rotation when it was in eastern Fauquier County.

Yeah the thunder woke me up around 2:10am this morning. Got brief heavy rain/ gusty winds in Herndon, VA. One of my first thoughts looking at the radar and seeing a nice little bow-echo moving thorugh was: "If it had come through during the afternoon hours with steeper low-level lapse rates..."

Is it at the top of a poll? Because if it is you can butter/oil/grease the poll up and watch the show.

Wet.

Bring it on Mother!

The GFS is further west...for now.

Late August through the first half of September. If it were peak season with the upcoming pattern of a high amplitude trough with the trough axis just west of the Appalachian Mountains, I would think that we would be talking about tropical systems tracking along or up the eastern seaboard potentially giving us decent impacts.

Now if we could have this pattern 5-8 weeks later...

Congratulations to you NA101. Hoping for good times for you in college.

Really sorry about your dad. I hope life treats you as well as it can in the furnace that you're moving to. I wish you the very best. Please don't be a stranger.

I'm curious...How many inches in diameter are the fireworks that are usually shot up at fireworks shows from towns and cities across the region?

The bangs are coming.

73/71 IAD

Not an expert but... a hypothesis of mine is that the dynamics that would warrant us being under a higher risk (particular with west to east ring of fire type low pressure systems ) often allow the previous day's storms, which would otherwise die out and leave us with only nuisance cloud debris that morning, to survive the overnight trek through the Ohio Valley and cross the Appalachian Mountains into our region by or just after dawn (June 13, 2013,... June 23, 2016 (though that event might've been a wee bit south to start)) and mess up our instability by shifting it south. Sometimes it can take longer than modeled or longer than the SPC anticipated for the atmosphere to recover enough to allow for good afternoon/evening storms for us. With the deeper troughs that can warrant higher risk days for us cloud debris from storms that outrun the cold front and/or the lift available in general can often lead to cloud cover that is extensive enough to tamper down the intensity of storms that form from what was expected though the strong lift, especially near the front, can still allow storms to form more often than in the case above. Like I said I'm no expert. I'm just an amateur and this is my opinion based on what I've observed over the past several years. Weather is very complicated and I know that there are many other variables to consider that I didn't touch on.

Where's @Jebman?

Eskimo Joe intrigued while Yoda is 'meh'?! What universe am I in and how do I get back to the correct one?

Lots of convective models are actually hinting at a thunderstorm cluster affecting at least parts of the sub forum tomorrow afternoon with fairly decent CAPE (especially southwest).

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch includes the District now. WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 84/85 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 504 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2018 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-510-600-610-130300- /O.EXA.KLWX.SV.A.0084.000000T0000Z-180513T0300Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 84 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES IN VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA ARLINGTON CITY OF ALEXANDRIA CITY OF FAIRFAX CITY OF FALLS CHURCH FAIRFAX THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALEXANDRIA, ARLINGTON, ASPEN HILL, BETHESDA, BOWIE, CAMP SPRINGS, CHANTILLY, CLINTON, COLLEGE PARK, FAIRFAX, FALLS CHURCH, GAITHERSBURG, GERMANTOWN, GREENBELT, HERNDON, LAUREL, MCLEAN, POTOMAC, RESTON, ROCKVILLE, SILVER SPRING, SUITLAND-SILVER HILL, AND WASHINGTON. $$

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 85 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Delaware Central and eastern Maryland Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 455 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will spread east towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast through the evening. Low-level wind profiles on the cool side of a quasi-stationary front will favor a few rotating storms with mainly a damaging wind and tornado risk.

Based on the current visible satellite southern areas look like they will see the most sunshine today.