George BM

Lol

Brief small CC drop with the Tornado warned storm north of Culpeper.

Seeing up to 70mph winds above the surface on radarscope over the Madison part of the line.

What analogs are they showing?

Yeah CAPE actually looks fairly decent later, especially towards the mountains (1500-2000+ mlcape). With modest shear in place as well a few warned storms wouldn't surprise me later... especially out that way.

I'm seeing the most vivid double rainbow I've seen so far in my life behind as the sun comes back out near the back edge of this rain.

Well it took all night but around 4:45am I noticed the skies FINALLY clear here in Herndon. I was able to see some faint vertical brushes of "not as dark" sky in the northern half of the sky with my eyes which I realized were pillars. It was like seeing faint streaks of virga. On my phone camera the pillars were a reddish/hot-pink color. It was in the nick of time too as the eastern horizon was slowly brightening throughout the 20 minutes I was outside.

I like how lots of folks in here have picked up on how DCA has fallen off in recent years. DCA: 108F IAD: 110F BWI: 110F RIC: 111F

91F at IAD breaks the record of 88F set in 2018.

Looks like a warm start to the month.

Baby Yoda: Lwxkm robbed? Forecast Discussion Thursday, May 30, 2024 10:58AM EDT Very strong and compact closed, cold-cored upper-level low will continue to move into and over the region as we go through the day. The cold front and rain/downpours associated with the front have moved east of the Bay leaving partial clearing and a rapidly cooling airmass aloft. This system is bringing in a record breaking cold-airmass for the end of May into our region. 500mb temperatures overhead will drop to around -32 to -33C w/ 850mb temps holding around -1 to -1.5C. Surface temperatures will climb a few degrees into the mid/upper 50sF for the afternoon. Now, for an airmass this cold, dewpoints will remain fairly high (around 40F or so) partially due to the compact nature of this low and higher dewpoints surrounding. This will lead to MLCAPE of 500+ J/kg by this afternoon which is, again, unusually high for an airmass this cold. In fact, the SPC has the area under a marginal risk of severe weather for today and are considering upgrading us to a slight (2 of 5) risk in the early afternoon update for wind and hail. Even during these late morning hours there are already some intense showers w/ a few lightning discharges mainly west of I-95 with some hail/graupel being reported. These will overspread the region, become more numerous and intensify as we go through the day. With the steep low and mid-level lapse rates in place combined w/ the instability in place as well as such cold thermodynamics, storms will be capable of 45-60mph wind gusts w/ torrential hailers looking likely. Some hailstones could exceed an inch in diameter (quarter-sized hail). The most intense storms could drop several inches of hail/graupel and briefly knock temps down into the upper 30s/lower 40s which will make travel treacherous for a time. By the evening the upper low will start moving to the east and showers and storms will, accordingly, taper off from west to east. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s by dawn. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM Lwxkm: @Baby Yoda Good thing hail doesn't count as snowfall. While there may be graupel, I can't imagine that graupel as oppose to hail will be the main precip-type. I guess I can root for the three main local airports to get missed by today's hailers. RodSney: Nah. You've already been crowned. You won't have to forfeit your trophy. Now if some local airports get buried in graupel today causing someone else to have closer numbers, then I might make a trophy for them. But why is this even a thing we're discussing? It's practically June. Get with the program Mother Nature!

IAD has peaked at 91F so far breaking its daily record of 89F from 2017.

Just had quite a bit of dime to quarter-sized hail with that western Fairfax county storm.

Nonstop thunder in Herndon.

I noticed a fire blow up on satellite and radar SE of Fredericksburg, VA yesterday afternoon. I wonder if that could be the source?

Lol. A little part of me dies every time this occurs.

Question for those of you who saw totality in both 2017 and 2024. I notice that the width of totality with this eclipse was larger than it was for 2017. My question is: Did this eclipse's totality seem darker than 2017s?

Temp dropped from 74F to 69F at IAD.

Had two more brief bursts of frozen precip. One just ahead of the main line and one with the main line (rain/graupel) w/ 30+ mph wind gusts. Temp has dropped into the lower 40sF. IAD: 43/38

Now I just had a heavier shower (moderate downpour) w/ pea-sized hail/graupel.

Just had some brief ice pellets w/ a shower in Herndon around 15 minutes ago.

If it makes you feel better there've been many significant to record-breaking snows with the general pattern leading up to this eastern severe event in the western US mountains w/ Lake Tahoe and the California mountain peaks getting 10-15 feet of snow through the past week. Crazy for late April.

Verbatim... an elevated supercell/multicellular cluster w/ hail. Surface temps in the upper 40s locally at that time.

That line approaching Charleston, WV means business. It has a tornado warning box the size of some of the STW boxes we get here. Lots of kinks in the line.

Starting wet and possibly thundery.