larrye

At some point, there will be an "official forecast" of accumulations. While I agree with you in terms of trying to "microanalyze" what they are going to be, I assume you're not trying to say that we have no clue at this point? It would appear to be a light/minor event (at least at this point) with likely accumulations perhaps 1"-3" for the general area? Am I wrong?

I don't see where anyone has said anything with 100% certainty. But you also have to be realistic based on the data that has been made available, with the trends, with climatology, and with previous history with snow events and their likely modeling trend progression. Things can change, and they probably will. People are commenting based on data 4 days out.

Worth mentioning when it's day 12 and the GFS appears consistent over many runs at the very least showing an EC threat. Not saying that long-range is reliable or you can draw any conclusions. Not saying it won't disappear completely tomorrow. Just sayin' it's something to watch over the next week (just as we did for Lee at that point).

Probably a slower hurricane that just isn't getting caught up in the trough, or possibly a stronger influence from Margo?

That's not what I recall seeing on the Euro. There were some runs a few days back where it was a hit for the Cape, but in the last few days, it's pretty much been a hit for NS (albeit usually further west than the GFS). I think it's been more consistent than you think over the past couple of days.

Do we still have an Omega block pattern in place and if so, any indications on the long-term models as to when we can expect a change?

I think they consider "White Plains" to be HPN, which is actually about 5 or so miles north of White plains.

It certainly consistently overstates QPF.

Preface by saying I'm not a met. But I DO know that the NAM usually overstates QPF and must always be taken with a grain of salt. The fact that there is some validation from the ECMWF makes me raise an eyebrow, though. But I wouldn't get too excited based strictly on the NAM.

I was wondering if anyone would notice this.

Anybody care to comment on the 00z GFS solution for Ian? Seems to drive the remnant low inland over the NC/VA area. Then it appears to spurn a secondary low off the coast on Sunday, and then either another one on Tuesday or it's actual the remnant low that strengthens off the coast? 00z Euro seems to do something similar.

Some chatter out there about a possible tropical low developing in the Atlantic next week: https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1521538363106471941?s=20&t=RA2iZe897rOAe7xSAJpJqQ

"Be careful with clown maps" here is like saying don't do drugs to an addict.

Final outcome of WHAT storm? There never really was any model that with any consistency indicated anything beyond a few inches for the NY metro. There was never any solution that truly bombed out near or right inside the benchmark. At least for the storm last week, there were some consistent indications at this point (72 hours ahead of time) even though there were variations in the solutions. Look, technically, you're right. There's always a chance. You never know. But you never know if the Yankees are going to win a ballgame on any given day either.

When people are screaming 35" on Long Island and at 1'-2' in the NY Metro and it doesn't happen, you're going to have a certain group of people that call them out on it. Face up to it.

You're dreaming. I see 1"-2" in NYC and you're forgetting about the frontal passage.

Here we go again with H5 with no surface support.

Huh? The surface is OTS with a possible brush of LI.

I'm actually hoping it slows down a day cause I have a flight out to FL that day :-), but the GFS has had it off and on for a few days now and it's stuck with 2/14. So I guess we'll see.

I know it's far out. But at a glance, the GFS seems to hint at something around 2/14, although the Euro seems to push it OTS. I didn't take a look at the temps - are they too warm?

I'm pretty sure the temp on my Echo devices are fed from the Westchester County Airport even though it says "Tarrytown", but in the past half hour, it dropped from 42 to 28. Wow.

So let's see when the storm finishes if there are any towns in Nassau Co with 35".

You can't necessarily take model outputs literally. Go look at the forecasts for NWS, and for any of the local TV stations and you will see that none of them reflect literally any of the model outputs. The GFS nailed the "eastward" bias of the storm and the Euro was kind of hinting at it all week long also.I believe both the GFS and the Euro (and the NAM also) showed the dual surface lows. Most Mets will use their experience, model outputs, climatology, etc and come up with a blended forecast ... unless a model output is so outlandish that it looks to be an outlier when they will just discard it.

Isn't this exactly what the models depicted? What happened to the claims that the surface depictions never properly reflecting the H5 levels? I think it's turning out that the models were pretty accurate. And the models ... including the Euro at the surface ... were really depicting this all week long. An eastern biased storm with highest accums over eastern LI, RI, and eastern MA ... for the most part not anywhere near the Kuchera maps ... with lesser amounts as you travel west towards the city and N&W.

Sometimes yes, sometimes no.