larrye

Understood. But you can't just throw away climo. You just USE climo as with any other forcasting element ... as something to factor in but with probabilities or not at 100% guarantees.

Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?

So it would appear to me that the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 18z GFS-Para, 18z HWRF, 18z CMC all take the center west of NYC ... while the 12z Euro and 12z UKMET take it over or east of NYC. Any guess as to who wins? :-). Has big implications in terms of which parts of NYC get lots of QPF vs. wind impacts.

Yep, and the 00z GFS keeps it west of NYC.

The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.

Having checked the latest GFS, Euro, HWRF, GFS-Para ... they all look to me like they have shifted even moreso west for Tuesday. Almost looks like if this pans out, the heaviest precip may end up NYC and NW of NYC. Any mets out there who can comment?

Well to me (novice), the 00z Euro and the latest UKMET along with the CMC and the 06z HWRF all seem to be west when it approaches NYC and the 12z GFS is coming closer to them. In fact, unless I'm reading it wrong ... the GFS-para would now seem to be the outlier taking it a little further east.

Good question.

I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?

What of the southwesterly shear that is forecast to interact with Isaias over the next couple of days?

Everyone still laughing at the GFS-Para? :-)

Used to be that way when NASA was running the show. Not sure how they are returning with Musk in charge.

Also seems to me that the 12z GFS has gone closer to the Euro ... putting it into the GOM by 165 hours (although crossing FL while the Euro has it through the FL Straits).

I was gonna say that the 06z GFS seems to lose it, when it begins to recurve in the western Atlantic no?

Thanks. Nice to know that there is someone here that encourages discussion and questions.

Agreed ... too far out. Was just curious.

I know it's 10 days out, but what does the ECMWF say about 92L? I get it on Tropical Tidbits out to 240 hrs, but with 1-day increments and no view of the Atlantic, it's a bit difficult to figure out what it's doing with the storm.

Based on what I'm seeing at least as of now, I'm gonna guess that other than delays associated with wind/rain, I shouldn't have any trouble flying out of HPN around 4PM on Saturday?

So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

So when is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I just looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

Like I said, nothing wrong with posting any opinion ... snowy or not ... and why you have that opinion. I think it would just be appropriate to refrain from personalizing and from editorializing as a response to someone's opinion ... who may very well turn out to be right (or perhaps not).

It would be nice if those who hoping for more snow would refrain from chastising those who want to be realistic or perhaps even see more snow as unlikely. There is nothing wrong with wanting snow ... I think we all do to one degree or another and there is nothing wrong with having an opinion and stating it here with backup. But weather forecasting is not an exact science yet and there are always going to be those here with differing opinions because there is some subjectivity to all of this. I think it would be helpful to refrain from accusing those who don't see it as as snowy an event as being negative. In this case, it would appear that they turned out to be right.

It has a 931 next to it. I didn't mean to imply that it was 931mb.

You see the 931 Low? That's hundreds of miles off the coast of Cape Cod.

The benchmark? Try a few hundred miles off Cape Cod.