larrye

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Everything posted by larrye

  1. Exactly. Will there be some places that end up under a band a get a few inches? Yep. But it's 2PM. And it's looking more and more to me like if you want to accept reality, this was way overblown (probably because of the mishap last year where that major storm was underforecast in advance). And I'm not so sure the NWS has been "decent". They started out with 6"-12" north/northwest of NYC. Then 3"-6". They're still showing 5"-10" for northern Westchester. Depends upon how you define "decent".
  2. And the same people always wishcast. Both are always represented here. What I'd like to know is where are the Mets (I'm clearly not one)? Are the pressures dropping off the coast? Why aren't we seeing the radar fill in with more QPF ... and why aren't we seeing the QPF expand to the west a bit before progressing eastward? That is what usually happens with a rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Unless I'm missing something, that's a pretty narrow "band" of QPF with lots of holes that haven't been backfilled.
  3. Large flakes moderate to heavy in Tarrytown. Seems to me sooner than expected. Don't know how long it will last, but ...
  4. Snowing heavily now in Tarrytown. Streets and lawns covered. Was sleeting earlier up until about 30 minutes ago.
  5. Snowing heavily now in Tarrytown. Streets and lawns covered. Was sleeting earlier up until about 30 minutes ago.
  6. Thanks. Will hope that the airlines waive their change fees.
  7. I am due to fly in to HPN around 7PM Wednesday. I presume from what I am seeing/reading that there is a high likelihood of impacts to travel?
  8. Well, it will weaken ... but as to how much ... this may also not be the final track. You're absolutely right, but we don't yet know the amount of land interaction.
  9. Anyone have any sense for what the patterns look like (at least for now) in the longer term ... out into week of 8/5 and 8/13? I am looking to plan a staycation and am just wondering if any particular week looks stormy/rainy vs. not.
  10. Sounds like Upton has this starting as rain. Anyone have a gut feel as to the changover time Sunday afternoon/evening in the Metro Area?
  11. Just changed over rather quickly to sleet after mixing for a few minutes in Tarrytown. Maybe got an inch of snow on the ground prior to changeover.
  12. Just changed over rather quickly to sleet after mixing for a few minutes in Tarrytown. Maybe got an inch of snow on the ground prior to changeover.
  13. Same here in Tarrytown. Snow, no mixing yet.
  14. And others accused other posters of "throwing in the towel" too soon when they saw this as a likelihood a few days ago. Some people here need to stop wishcasting and if they do want to wishcast, go ahead and wishcast with some model or climatologic facts and move on ... without the editorial comments towards those who choose to go with what they feel is an accurate forecast (subject to change, of course) that might be light on snow. It's nice to be able to come here and just read and review the analysis from different people. Just my 2 cents.
  15. It's just people reacting to what they see as the probabilities resulting from some degree of recent run-to-run consistency on the part of the GFS with some confirmation from the Euro 4 days out + a lack of blocking. We will have to see what the next day or so brings. I don't think people are completely giving up, just expressing what the current likely scenario might be.
  16. Am I seeing a more zonal-looking flow in the upper levels starting around 8/8? Maybe shifting out of this pattern?
  17. Anybody have any clues from the GFS or Euro as to how long this upper level pattern is going to continue? I saw some indications that it might clear out for the weekend but now in the NWS 7-day, it looks like it continues through at least the middle of next week?
  18. OK, so my two cents on this. Take a look at the NWS forecast for this week from Monday. Pay particular attention to Mon, Weds, Thurs, Fri: .TODAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs around 90. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the upper 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent. Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Now, take a look at the extended forecast for next week so far: .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. For someone who is (for example) looking for a week to take vacation, which one would YOU recommend? And with all respect, do you mean to tell me that the extended forecast for next week doesn't look "wet" compared to this week? Mostly Cloudy doesn't even equate to Florida weather in the summer where the sun shines for most of the day and you get some popup convection every afternoon.
  19. I hear you. But the reason why other districts do it is because they have a plan. That's all it takes. If NYC had a plan, they could do it. If they announce the day before that it is likely that they will have early dismissal, it requires the same type of planning for parents as it does if they announce a complete closure. It's something NYC needs to do IMO.
  20. Just cause you've never heard of it doesn't mean it couldn't be done, and doesn't mean it wouldn't have been the smartest choice. Other districts do it all the time.
  21. I'm not gonna argue with you. The statement was that the ground was cold. The ground may be exposed to below freezing temps at night, but given the time of the year, it has been exposed to above freezing temps during the day. All I'm saying is it may not be as cold as you think.
  22. The temperature hit 46 degrees today in Central Park and 42 yesteday.
  23. Looks like you may have been right after all :-).
  24. So I get that the models have trended northward over the past 24-48 hours. But has anyone taken a look specifically at surface temps in NYC + precip intensity + the amount of progged snowfall during the day vs. night (at least as progged currently) to see if the precip is likely to accumulate? SnowGoose69 makes the point that this time of year, you really need low surface temps + we all know that sun angle and ground level warmth play directly into the forecast.