larrye

Yeah but so can Audrey Puentes.

I expect it to be east of Riverhead or on Cape Cod.

But if it was better, it wouldn't be time to nowcast?

What if you're right in the right direction?

Completely agree. I think that's why many mets blend the models to get their final forecasts.

I never said that it wasn't. But that is nothing compared to what's forecast to happen out east. As I said, this storm has had an east bias all week long even on the Euro.

Just because its solution isn't what you want? Face it, even the Euro has had an eastern solution the entire week with the highest totals on LI and in NE the further east you go. This may be a realistic trend, or it may be an anomaly or a wobble. We'll find out later. But even in prior runs, this wasn't really looking like much of a NYC and points N&W storm.

Wouldn't that depend upon where the energy consolidates?

Really sorry to hear - my condolences to you and your family. Just lost my Mom 6 months ago so know what you're going through.

Respect your opinion, you probably know more than I do about this stuff. But 39" in western suffolk? Knowing that the NAM usually overstates QPF? It would have to get under some pretty good banding for several hours and I don't know if the intense banding will get far enough west for that. I guess we'll see. But I would prefer to use the 10-1 ratio maps and add a bit to increase the ratios if appropriate for temps ... then stating that higher amounts can be expected underneath areas where banding sets up.

Come on ... some of those amounts on the Kuchera maps you know are not gonna happen.

That's not a big deal compared to how crushed eastern LI would get.

How often does the H5 in mind with no surface back up turn out to be valid vs. a bust?

I dunno. To me, I saw this coming all week long. I didn't look at the Kuchera maps. The GFS was never consistently at or inside the benchmark that I recall. And while the Euro was better, from what I recall, it also was either a bit east at times or was developing the storm too late. I didn't know how much would fall, but I pretty much was thinking that it was looking like this was a NE and eastern LI storm with lower amounts as you go west and not much north and west of NYC. I didn't think we'd see 35" near NYC.

Forgive me ... but why would the model put down surface output that didn't reflect what it sees at the upper levels? There must be something that is causing that.

I'll ask you the same question I asked someone else earlier. What good is a favorable H5 if the surface doesn't reflect it? Are you also saying that perhaps the surface features on the next run will better reflect the H5?

In other words, the "facts" are that the 12z GFS did come west just a little bit more, but its track is still east and given the strength, its depiction of the point at which the deepening occurs, and the 12z depiction of the surface features, it has not converged with the Euro's solution and depicts a less intense solution ... ALTHOUGH, the upper air features on the 12z GFS do indicate some improvement and if that continues, MIGHT be the harbinger of a more favorable surface change on the 18z or 00z.

Well, let me ask you a dumb question then. What good is an improvement at the upper levels if there isn't any corresponding improvement at the surface? Doesn't the surface ultimately reflect the QPF? Seriously, set me straight.

Actually, even though the 00z NAM came back west, if I remember correctly ... it called out about 10" on LI and even less in NYC proper. And the NAM usually overstates QPF. Not exactly in agreement with with the UK and the Euro.

The way I see it, it's foolhardy to declare it either way at this point.

The question is where? To my "novice" eye, it looks way out east on LI or in NE.

And doesn't the NAM tend to overstate QPF?

Huh?

I also have my doubts that LI is going to get 32" of snow. That would be pretty historic.

Maybe it's just my novice eye, but I have trouble seeing where N&W of NYC can get a foot or more of snow with the center as far east as the Euro has it and it bombing out as late as it is.