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larrye

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Everything posted by larrye

  1. larrye
    You really think these Kuchera totals will verify N&W?
  2. larrye
    Exactly. People need to stop freaking out one way or the other. It's Tuesday and we're talking about a storm that is 72 hours off.
  3. larrye
    Same reasoning applies to the Euro.
  4. larrye
    Can anyone provide the technical difference between the Kuchera and the Euro actual snowfall total maps?
  5. larrye
    Well now you're saying SECS. Yes, perhaps the 00z Euro today approached SECS, not sure about the other runs you referenced (looked to me like less). And I would still submit that this was not exactly a resounding consistency of runs on the Euro ... together with no validation at all from the GFS. And as you can tell, there are others who are more skilled than I who are commenting on the Upper air pattern who are saying it doesn't appear to be favorable. Look, have a party if you want. I'm not giving up yet, but far as I'm concerned ... I look at probabilities and for a higher probability at this point, I'd expect to see more consistency between runs and between models.
  6. larrye
    So you see one Euro run at 00z that is a HECS with no validation from the GFS and you jump on the bandwagon? You don't consider consistency at all? Take a look back at the Euro runs over the past three days for the upcoming weekend. How many have a HECS? And I would even question whether the 00z today had one - it looks a little far east of the benchmark to me, but I could be wrong. Look, I'm not saying it can't happen. I'm just saying that at this point, it's silly to accuse people who are being realistic (and representing what the models are really saying up to now) as being negative. Is it something to watch and could it change? Yes.
  7. larrye
    They're not doom and gloom. They're realistic. People love to wish for snow and are disappointed with reality. Right now, Both the GFS and the Euro are OTS and although the Euro has been closer, they both kinda have been for a while. Could that change? Sure. But up to now, they are OTS.
  8. larrye
    Some Met named Mike Masco has been tweeting about CAD and saying that the models aren't picking it up.
  9. larrye
    We get power hits here in Tarrytown all the time from heavy rain. They last typically a few seconds or at most a few hours. But they happen repeatedly. It's almost like there's a ConEd box somewhere that water leaks into.
  10. larrye
    Thank you. So is PVC an upper level feature? Mid-level feature? Talking ridges and troughs makes me think upper level.
  11. larrye
    vs. those who wishcast.
  12. larrye
    They're not weenie posts. They're posts based on current radar observations and model pattern changes.
  13. larrye
    A question on Thunderstorms in the greater NYC metro. I think I grasp the concept that T-Storms, when they approach the coast, often encounter marine air and lose their intensity. We also know that T-Storms normally lose their intensity later in the evening when daytime heating is lost. But this doesn't always hold true. Sometimes, T-Storms do not lose their intensity as they move from west to east closer to the Atlantic or Long Island Sound. And sometimes (albeit rarely), they do not lose their intensity diurnally. Can someone explain in both cases, why? What are the dynamics responsible for situations where T-Storms don't lose their intensity as they approach the coast or during the night? Thanks in advance.
  14. larrye
    I think I grasp the concept that T-Storms, when they approach the coast, often encounter marine air and lose their intensity. We also know that T-Storms normally lose their intensity later in the evening when daytime heating is lost. But these concepts don't always hold true. Sometimes, T-Storms do not lose their intensity as they move from west to east closer to the Atlantic or Long Island Sound. And sometimes (albeit rarely), they do not lose their intensity diurnally. Can someone explain in both cases, why? What are the dynamics responsible for situations where T-Storms don't lose their intensity as they approach the coast or during the night? Thanks in advance.
  15. larrye
    Any tropical system or storm of significance is going to create significant issues for the area going out for some number of miles from the center. There were models (and media) that were forecasting the center to make landfall anywhere from NYC to central Nassau to central Suffolk to Montauk. Hurricane basics: the top-right quadrant is the most dangerous. In this case, the further west the center WOULD have made landfall (theoretically), the more significant the issues would have been for the area in and east of the center, and the further west (theoretically) the issues would have been. I'm not sure that it's accurate to imply that whether the center would have made landfall on the south shore and where wouldn't really have made much of a difference. Especially if Henri had turned out to be a stronger storm.
  16. larrye
    Usually overdoes QPF pretty consistently even within 48 hours from what I remember.
  17. larrye
    Tarrytown. 7" with moderate snow/mixing at times with sleet.
  18. larrye
    Understood. But you can't just throw away climo. You just USE climo as with any other forcasting element ... as something to factor in but with probabilities or not at 100% guarantees.
  19. larrye
    Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?
  20. larrye
    Yep, and the 00z GFS keeps it west of NYC.
  21. larrye
    The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.
  22. larrye
    Having checked the latest GFS, Euro, HWRF, GFS-Para ... they all look to me like they have shifted even moreso west for Tuesday. Almost looks like if this pans out, the heaviest precip may end up NYC and NW of NYC. Any mets out there who can comment?
  23. larrye
    Well to me (novice), the 00z Euro and the latest UKMET along with the CMC and the 06z HWRF all seem to be west when it approaches NYC and the 12z GFS is coming closer to them. In fact, unless I'm reading it wrong ... the GFS-para would now seem to be the outlier taking it a little further east.
  24. larrye
    Based on what I'm seeing at least as of now, I'm gonna guess that other than delays associated with wind/rain, I shouldn't have any trouble flying out of HPN around 4PM on Saturday?
  25. larrye
    So what is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?
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