larrye

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Everything posted by larrye

  1. Again, it's a matter of probabilities. Is it too early to call? It's always too early to call something this close. Have there have been some changes (or should we say "fluctuations") in some of the other models since I posted? Yes. But by and large, if you stand by the NAM with no other models verifying a similar solution ... especially outside its sweet spot in terms of range ... and then you have to get a storm to thread a needle (recall that sun angle and moderate airmasses become more of a problem in March for significant accums in NYC) ... IMHO ... it's not likely that we will get a storm to dump significant accums this week. Could that change? Sure.
  2. You're right. That DID happen ... once that I can recall. It's extremely rare that the NAM alone verified without any other models along for the ride.
  3. But it didn't have support from any other models? Remember, it's the NAM.
  4. It's really very simple. Weather forecasting is a matter not of completely objective black and white exactness - it is a matter of probabilities for certain solutions and those probabilities become a little more reliable as one comes within less and less time of the event. Climatology also has to be taken into consideration. Right now, people who are willing to face the facts and not wishcast, are able to see that the probabilities for a significant snow event in our area have significantly decreased and would seem to be unlikely. Is it still possible? Sure. Likely? No.
  5. Here, not so much. But looking at the radar, NJ seems to be set up underneath a band.
  6. I dunno. Up here in Tarrytown, it's 34 degrees and not sticking. I would have expected an inch or two at least already based on the forecasts that I heard. But let's see if the column cools down and we see an accumulating snow this afternoon. Theoretically, with 2" per hour ... even if the accums start at 1PM, we could see 10"-12". You guys would know much better than I how to interpret the radar and whether it will fill in.
  7. Try telling my back that after shoveling my driveway LOL. Believe me, I had it. And it was heavy wet snow. I would have taken pictures.
  8. Heavy snow now in Tarrytown, 1.5" (combo of snow/sleet) on the ground.
  9. Been sleeting here in Tarrytown for a few hours now. Snow mixed in.
  10. Snow has been moderate to heavy here in Westchester since 5PM. Just got in to my house in Tarrytown after having traveled Ardsley and Greenburgh. Easily 2.5" of heavy wet snow by 7:15PM. Roads are in bad shape (even the major highways and heavily traveled roads). Cleaned off my car after being outside in a shopping center parking lot ... started with the rear window ...and by the time I got around the car, the rear window was covered again.
  11. Honestly? Both seem like pretty good bets to me (not a met). "Last chance" taken literally? Maybe not. Likely to be the last chance for accumulating snow? Maybe. Sure, it happens after March 15. But how often? Baseball season opens the first week in April.
  12. For Northern Westchester County, New York SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 2:30PM EST THU ...HEAVY SNOW INTO THIS AFTERNOON... AT 12:45 PM EST, A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXTENDS ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER CORRIDOR DOWN THROUGH THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. THIS BAND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST HOUR. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND, CAUSING SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLY WIRES AS WELL. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
  13. I'm in Tarrytown. Started out the morning with barely an inch. Now at least 3"-4" with low visibility and heavy snow. Can't measure the wind gusts, but just from the sound and frequency ... hard to believe that we're not experiencing blizzard or near blizzard conditions and hard to believe that we're not getting it much worse than expected.
  14. Yes, but wasn't that more or less a one-time occurrence? More often than not ... much more often than not ... the NAM is usually overdone on QPF, no?
  15. I see that. But how much credibility would any reputable met put into a GFS run that is "close" at 288 hours out? If it were a long-range forecast or a statement of seeing a pattern change that far out ... maybe. But ...
  16. Anybody see anything credible in this? https://patch.com/new-york/longbeach/s/ga1sp/first-major-snow-northeast-could-come-thanksgiving?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=autopost&utm_content=longbeach
  17. Yep. Typical for it to flood during heavy rains (along with the Saw Mill River Pkway and Hutchison River Parkway).
  18. A lot of "convulsion"? And you're complaining about the lack of science in the discussions here? I suppose after hitting Florida, Maria will take a "hop, skip, and a jump" over the rest of the continental US to end up in Hudson's Bay? Look, 100% model reliability 5 days out isn't assured. But the reliable models have all been trending east. Even the GFS. And climatology favors a recurve. It is highly likely that we will see a recurve. If not, we MIGHT see a NC or VA landfall but probabilities are extremely low, almost not worth discussing. But to talk about a FL landfall or GOM at this point is a bit ridiculous. There would be a lot of people at the NHC who would be very very wrong.
  19. It would seem that at least one professional forecaster agrees with you: https://www.facebook.com/craigallenwx/posts/10155717439772720 An excerpt: This is a little out of character for me since I'm usually the one who's too fast to dismiss storms, especially when everyone fawns over the Euro but if you've been following the EURO, UKMET, the Navy's stepchild NAVGEM and the JMA, you know they are much closer and DO come close to a US landfall, somewhere out towards Montauk to Cape Cod/Nantucket. The EURO has been extremely consistent in a much closer call, slower to arrive and slower to leave. I will add that the EURO was the one that locked in on the west coast of Florida for Irma, rather than the east coast. It seems to handle the strength of the Atlantic and sub tropical ridges very well. These tropical systems are steered around the periphery of these ridges, looking for a weak spot or opening to sneak into it. THE GFS and to some extent, theh NAM (which really shouldn't be used for tropical forecasting anyway) always underplay the strength of the ridge and therefore turns storms to the right too fast. One more point....ALL models are honing in on a very important aspect. Jose will be moving north into cooler waters. As I explained yesterday, this will tend to weaken him from a 90mph + storm now, to under hurricane status by the time he gets to our latitude. However, this will make his engine (the eye) sputter and this in turns allows the storm to weaken BUT also spread out over a larger distance since it s no longer tightly wound around the center. This would allow bands of wind and rain (squalls) to extend out over 100 miles from the center so that also leads me to believe that Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday could get stormy for awhile, especially eastern sections.
  20. In terms of potential EC impact, the next one is looking much more interesting (albeit at the long range). GFS has been consistent with it over the past few runs and the last Euro is pretty close to a NC landfall. Is that 15L?
  21. But appears to do a "loop-de-loop" and sends Jose back west into NJ.
  22. 00z GFS skims eastern Long Island late Tuesday/early Wednesday. This is getting interesting. Let's see what the Euro says.
  23. Agree that we cannot focus too much on model runs 10-14 days out. But has anyone seen Jose on the 6Z GFS? Has anyone ever seen behavior like that even that far out? It appears to continue to retrograde Jose towards the SW for many many hours over the Atlantic. Not just a stall or a meander. A steady SW and then S traverse between 264 and 284.