larrye

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Everything posted by larrye

  1. If there's one thing I've learned from the past week ... it's not to speak in such absolutes. I'm not a met. But frankly ... over the past day or two, I've seen signs that Irma just isn't as well organized as it once was. The northern Cuba coast and the islands may not be mountainous, but there is still land interaction going on. And someone earlier did mention some possible dry air entrainment. Am I saying that it definitely won't strengthen once it makes it's northward turn? No. But somehow, my gut is telling me that this just isn't the storm it once was. I could be wrong.
  2. 10 days out, but I see that. As we've seen with Irma ... will change a thousand times between now and then.
  3. Perhaps. It just seems to me that even with a significant distance ... prior situations where a strong Tropical System has just traversed that same area don't usually lend themselves to development. I could be wrong. Would be interesting to hear from a Met.
  4. Definitely not my understanding. My understanding is usually, the upwelling and outflow from the first storm prevents the second from strengthening ... and often ... prevents it from even developing tropical characteristics.
  5. I think there's a lot more to it than this. First of all ... It's almost as strong ... a cat 4. Secondly, it was my understanding that up until now ... a tropical system was highly unlikely to strengthen (or even develop) when it is right behind another strong tropical system.
  6. Speculation on how/why Jose managed to become a Cat 4 while right behind Irma? I would have thought that "traditionally", we would not expect a Tropical System right behind another to develop into another strong one due to upwelling?
  7. This is insane. One post says Lake Worth is looking better, another says Miami to PBI is getting the eyewall. Jeesh people. How can you draw conclusions from a 10 mi shift in the GFS?
  8. Anything's possible, but highly unlikely at this point.
  9. In reality, all the NHC can do is put out a best guess. I was down in FL last year for Matthew. You don't really know the final track until it happens. If trends continue towards the west, it may turn out to bode well for eastern Palm Beach county ... IT MAY ... but to draw that conclusion now based on a run or two of the GFS is not pragmatic. There is a reason why the NHC uses the cone as opposed a guess as to the specific track.
  10. You've got to be kidding me. What about the winds in and around the eyewall ... going right up the center of the state? And the tornadic activity?
  11. Yes, but CNN ... in their continuing need to sensationalize without care ... is reporting it and making a big deal out of it.
  12. Am I the only one who thinks that it's looking a bit asymmetrical over the past few hours?
  13. Depends on where she lives. Mandatory Evacuation zone is east of US 1. However, even well west of there ... there may be substantial power outages for days.
  14. Well, this latest 12z GFS run should serve as an adequate answer to the poster who was asking why the NHC didn't move the cone more to the east after the 00z and 06z model runs.
  15. Because you don't significantly move a probability cone 72-84 hours out ... just based on the few model runs we see here ... and some degree of apparent model consensus just in the past 9 hours. These cones take other things into consideration including meteorological experience, judgement, climatology, and other models that we don't necessarily review in detail here. Imagine if they moved the cone eastwards, and at 12z ... a couple of major models or ensemble means shifted back west. You have to realize that the cone is an overall probability, and that further ... its position potentially affects millions of people and evacuation orders.
  16. If that is the case ... and the "shifting" was anything more than "noise", then I stand corrected as far as the GFS is concerned.
  17. Unless I'm mistaken, it is only the 18z GFS that has shifted a bit east. Why would the cone change significantly just due to one model having moved east? What if it's an outlier or a anomaly? There would need to be a general trend, or a good solid reason to think the 18Z GFS was "more right" than everything else.
  18. I don't think anyone is "tossing" very much of anything. This 12z run of the GFS is just slightly east. They are just model runs.
  19. And you don't see the possibility of the ridge changing at all?
  20. I think it's been that way since 00z, hasn't it?
  21. I think the pressures could be 50Mb higher and the media will still be going insane very soon if nothing changes on the models.
  22. No one's discounting the pressures that the models are forecasting. Only that they are likely overdone. The way I see it, the Harvey situation is different because it was caused by a stall and some kind of blocking or lack of steering. Could there be a hurricane that is deeper in pressure than anything seen before? Sure. Just like there can be a record low or high temperature for a location that's never been seen before. But in attempting to forecast, you take the norms/odds of an anomaly into consideration.
  23. Perhaps not a hard right. And you may turn out to be right. But you also have to look at climatology. And like I said, the very features that you are using to make your judgement could change again over 9 days. If the models continue with this with some consistency as we get inside a 7 day, 6 day, 5 day period ... I think many will say that the probability is increased significantly. Right now, it's increased over what it was a few days ago ... yes.
  24. Because models can be unreliable at this range? Because their representation of the upper air features have been changing over the past bunch of runs and could change again? Yes, it looks (to me, a novice) like there is more run to run consistency and some degree of convergence between different models. But I don't know if there are many people who would say that "all things pointing towards a US landfall" right now.