LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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so much more snow there, but the summers suck
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That's the thing, when you learn about all the varied and wonderful features of our planet, the first thing you want to do is travel and see them for yourself. It's a pity that the income one can obtain from fascinating fields like this doesn't match the endless amount of curiosity it stimulates.
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wow nice find, I really wish they showed NYC data before 1900 but I like how our snowfall averages back then were over 30" per year for those earlier decades. I wonder if the snow was measured differently back then?
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That was one of my all time favorite classes. Oceanography is absolutely fascinating. I especially liked reading about how land masses and oceans change over milenia. Researching how whales used to walk on land hundreds of millions years ago and how they are finding their fossils now in the deserts of Egypt and up high in the Himalayas was absolutely incredible. Tethys the ocean existed where the Middle East exists today and there was no Mediterranean Sea back then either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tethys_Ocean Meteorology and quantum mechanics have this in common lol-- both have tremendous amounts of uncertainty.
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I looked at climate stats for Syracuse for April 8th and I was surprised how many mild days there have been there on that day. It seems it's warmer there on that day than it is here.... probably because it's far inland.
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Probably more likely than not, I planned a trip to north of Syracuse anyway, it would suck if it was a sunny day and we missed it.
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That's absolutely amazing considering we had 4 straight years of 40"+ between 02-03 and 05-06 That 20 year period was better for snowfall than any 20 year period since the early 1900s.
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Here's something I want to know, with this cyclical aspect of the equation, is the cycle of the exact same length each time or is there some variation? I think there has to be some variation because the number of years in each group changes somewhat with each iteration of the cycle. So it was 15 years between 1955-1969 and 19 winters between 2000 and 2018. The period in between could be a transitional phase between the two opposite ends of the cycle.
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luck or variation may have some small role to play (but not much), the way we know is that there's patterns to this, but at the same time, each pattern shows an upward climb, likely a combination of human activity, solar activity, and the earth trying to even out the imbalance between the tropics and the poles.
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it almost seems like some sort of karmic punishment for the period from 2009-10 to 2014-15 (with the exception of 2011-12 which was awful outside of the October snowstorm.)
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Wow some of those high SST records are absolutely insane. I wonder how it affected oxygen levels in the water and if the fish went much lower to escape from the heat? Thanks, you provide a valuable service, it's not easy to get SST temperatures for specific areas online.
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that's the actual difference between simulation and science.
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My next sig is going to be about you ;-)
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the 1990s had some of our warmest years on record though so I wouldn't say the warming slowed.... as a rolling average remember the 90s had to be very warm to reach that next peak in 1999. The cooler period was from the 60s to the 80s. As you'll note, we had much lower tropical activity and lower rainfall during this time period too, so this could be linked to the AMO.
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late 90s can be directly connected to extreme enso events like 1997-98 and 1998-99 we had both extreme el nino and extreme la nina. early 90s can be linked to extremely high solar activity (solar peak was 1990-1991 when NYC had 22 of 24 months of above normal temperatures) By the way we are currently at solar maximum again (though not all solar maxima are created equal.) That is why people are so excited about the upcoming total solar eclipse in April, there were likely be extreme solar activity (pink prominences, protuberances, etc.) visible off the solar limb during totality.
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It has to be both since a place like Washington DC still has sporadic winters with more snowfall than us (though obviously not as many such winters as they had in the 80s). DCA is such a miserable place to measure snowfall too- there seems to be some inaccuracy there.
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That's excellent and something I've always wondered about. And since you keep logs you probably know this-- what was your coldest SST you've ever recorded and what month/year and did you ever record SST below freezing? As you know seawater and especially moving seawater doesn't freeze even at 30-31. I remember in the 2014-15 winter, in February SST of 30-31 were recorded off the eastern end of Long Island and freezing drizzle occurred on an onshore wind. On the other end of the spectrum, what's the highest SST you've ever recorded and month/year-- I assume those would be in early August? I've infrequently seen SST in the low 80s sometimes. The highest SST I've ever seen reported was 84 degrees (!) back in July of 1993, that was one of the hottest and longest lasting summers we've ever had. For me it was only eclipsed by Summer 2010. Thanks!
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One would think if it happened before it would have happened in the 1930s, when we had some of our warmest winters. What year is that which spikes above 40 in the 1930s? Looks like we saw a second spike in the late 1950s
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it was obvious when you mentioned upwelling
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The further away you get from either ocean and with elevation, you'll get much more resistance to warming. There were maps of this posted, the Northern Rockies have had the least deviation towards positive departures in temperature of any location in the CONUS.
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Well at least SST have dropped, in the middle of January they were reported to be around 43-45. Since you've been doing this for awhile, you probably know this-- when are the lowest SST usually-- late February or early March? If this projected mid to late month cold happens, we could get widespread mid to upper 30s SST (depends on what kind of staying power it has.)
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
LibertyBell replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
the overpopulation of humans and their livestock has much more of an effect than any limited population of mammoths ever did. also-- it's worth noting-- humans drove the mammoths to extinction (along with many other creatures.) -
There's many examples of this however it's a very hit and miss scenario. To use a baseball example it's like replacing a great all around hitter .300 hitter with some power with someone who strikes out most of the time but once in a long while hits a home run. It's why we see so many feast and famine winters now, you rarely ever see a snowfall season in the normal range.
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Yes, I enjoy it all too. Sunny and dry in the spring and summer (rainfall at night is okay) to nice clear frosty nights in the fall to get the fall foliage going during the day and then snow in time for the holidays in December ideally. Having a warm start to winter spoils a large part of the season for me. Getting snow in December is important to have a good winter.
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I have read the winter up in Montpelier, VT this year has been what the normal winter in Philadelphia would be? My argument about caring about temperatures is this-- I remember you posted numbers on this last year or the year prior-- we have been setting new records for temperatures in the 60s followed by significant snowfall... I think the record is 2 days (2 days after temperatures in the 60s we had a 6"+ snowstorm?) This year the extreme warmth has been in the middle of the nation, I heard that central Canada has been in the 70s? Broke their previous record by 4 degrees! I hope this doesn't mean wildfires later in the spring and summer!
