LibertyBell

it's why Suffolk County is closer to a coastal New England type of climate.

To be fair, a lot of the differences between this season and 2011-12 can be shaved off by removing the October rare snow event (which is why ISP is close.)

as long as it happens after January 31st so the new January record can be set, sure.

1-3 inch storms can happen in any kind of pattern.

for the upcoming week, Don, does it look like the storm will begin on Friday instead of Saturday? In this case, the record driest January record may not be set.

30 inches of snow near Boston seem extremely unlikely

With how extremely cold it was back then, DC area snowfalls were probably much higher lol. I don't know of a great southeast winter from the 80s outside of December 1989 and you really do not want that analog lol (although there was a very minor snow event in April 1990, after JFM all torched!)

Thats the one. 5-8 inches of snow followed by a 3-5 here. Either side of the solstice. First 6 inch snow event in years too.

1983-84 la nina after el nino, extremely cold in December and January, snowfall was moderately low (better than this year though) and there was a March snow event in March 1984. February 1984 was pretty warm too.

Look up the snowfall season of 1991-92 and the two snows we had in late March that season.

Yes, the pattern would have to set itself up in the second half of February. We'd likely need two of those kinds of storms, one in each month. Doesn't seem likely. The only March I remember getting two decent snowstorms while the rest of the winter was snowless was 1991-92 when there were two March snowstorms of 4-6 inches around the solstice while the rest of the winter was nearly snowless.

Interesting correlations here. So when NYC gets 4" of snow, PHL gets 4" 49% of the time but BOS gets it 64% of the time. When BOS gets 4 inches of snow, NYC gets it 42% of the time but PHL only 26% of the time. When PHL gets 4" of snow NYC gets it 67% of the time but BOS also gets it 54% of the time. This shows that all three have somewhat distinct climates from each other. If we compare PHL to BWI and DCA, I think we'll see a stronger correlation there than with PHL and NYC.

Chris, are these mismatch years much more likely when a la nina comes after an el nino? Maybe thats why these years are much more snowy than other la ninas?

I've never believed drought monitors, they are unscientific to an extreme degree. This is the driest it's been here since 2002.

how about warm and an occasional snow event a la February 2008?

earthquakes?

we can get near 20" if we get a March 2009 style moderate event.

it seems like ever since 2009-10, they are much more with Baltimore and DC in the snowfall department than they are with us. The same was the case in the 80s, when storms like February 1989 affected them much more than they did us. They have a more inland midatlantic based climate. I still argue for NYC not being part of either the midatlantic or new england. Their summers are also much more like the midatlantic (much hotter than ours). Other winters in which they were much more like the midatlantic than us include 1993-94, 2009-10, 2010-11.

I think we benefit more if it's later in February and in March. We would need March 2014 style suppression to miss out on it that late in the season.

Noway, it takes me 3 hours to get to NE PA. There is no part of PA that's less than 3 hours away from here.

Yes, I remember something like this during the early 90s too-- was it 91-92? There were two back to back 4"+ snowfall events after a snowless winter near the spring solstice.

The funny thing about el ninos is that it's usually the ones with the snowy December that are the best in terms of snow overall. Examples are 2002-03 and 2009-10.

But we also have to deal with the fact that when the first half of winter has less than 10 inches of snow, March is often also not snowy. 08-09 did have quite a bit more snow at this point in time.

More than 50% chance NYC finishes with less than 10 inches of snow and no 4 inch snowstorm.

he's talking about shortening wavelengths changing the way that the la nina affects the east coast. you are correct too though, March isn't as snowy when the first part of winter isn't snowy.