LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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long nights and very cold mornings. I can't handle mornings in the 40s, its very cold.
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We don't really need so much rain anymore. Half an inch is just fine.
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Isn't there some way to destroy these annoying pests?
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They were also doing that in the New England subforum lol.
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Don, what about Cold October followed by Mild November? Some of our snowiest winters had this combo.
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This was the first time I've ever seen Greenland in the forecast cone of a TC!
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Intuitively, I would say a lot of mixing events? Maybe the 1993-94 winter was like this for that reason? Perhaps this pattern is so inherently chaotic that predictability of storm snowfall amounts and p-type percentages would be very low unless within 48 hours of an event (lower than they'd normally be anyway.)
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Don, what do you think is causing this historic behavior? Is it because of that recurving typhoon?
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Nope, we got just over a foot so can't complain here either, we get a bit of the central/south NJ storms as they come up just offshore.
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Well, that is unusual-- but the NAO is slightly positive right now isnt it-- forecast to go negative in about a week? Also, I remember a correlation that was posted that the AO and NAO are in tandem about 80% of the time (the same sign).
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That is-- I notice it's a local hot spot for snowfall maxes lol. You also do better in the storms that slide "under" NYC
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Sayonara to my Poconos growing season, it was in the 20s there. Still got awhile to go here-- it's very rare to get an October freeze where I am right now-- it's only happened twice in the last 30 years. Are you near MJX? They have sandy soil and radiate heat as well as FOK does.
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Don posts info that the AO is the highest it's ever been this time of year. It would be extremely unusual for the NAO to be very negative right now. It may do that in the near future, but right now the blocking is Pacific based.
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These kinds of Octobers were more common in the 80s/90s/00s, I remember we would get minor trace amounts of snow frequently in October in that time period, but it was the cold that was really memorable.
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Reminds me of the glory days. Also, I can't stand Aaron Rodgers. The only thing I didn't like was the game was too early in the morning for me.
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What -NAO? The AO is about as positive as it can get and the AO and NAO usually go hand in hand. Our blocking is Pacific based.
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Don what were the lows at the airports and the park? I didn't get below the mid 40s.
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are there even really "el nino" and "la nina" patterns? some la ninas have amongst our snowiest winters on record and we've had cold Octobers before in these patterns. and a couple of el ninos are amongst our warmest winters on record. what about 2000-01 as an analog, it was a third year el nino
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February-March 2015 was MUCH better I don't know why people make it seem like 2013-14 was so great, we had above normal snow but most were mixed events and March 2014 was cold and dry. 2013-14 had quantity but not quality, 2014-15 had both quality AND quantity!
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We've been seeing this become more common in October and November, been awhile for October though (2011, 2012).
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So Nov 2017-18-19 all three had extremely anomalous early season arctic cold shots or heavy snow. That 238 day period without a 6" snowfall that year also looks like the shortest such period. I wonder if there was ever a reason uncovered as to why this happened during that 3 year stretch but not for a long time before or since?
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Amazing how short the growing season was in 1976 (although we did go from 25 on 4/12 to a 90+ true heatwave a week later lol.
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Wow I think one of those was also accompanied by NYC's earliest 6" snowfall?
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Thanks, Don. So it's really early October for our area....NYC on the last day of September 110 years ago also has to be the monthly low record.
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Chris, do you have a list for the earliest 30s for the NYC airports and the park itself? Going back to the 70s and overall site records? I'm thinking it was back in 1976 and in late September?
