LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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why can't we ever have enough cold to have cold on -BOTH- sides of the pole? Has anyone ever thought about THAT?
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I've been using the 1989-90 analog for a month now lol. But believe it or not in this era of climate change, there is no way FM will be as warm as JFM were in 1990. I would like to know what caused that early April snowfall event in 1990 after it was in the mid 80s for 3 straight days in middle March. Was that the result of an SSW in 1990?
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They influence the outcome already by having all those artificial lights on around the rodent.
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it can wait for February 1st. Although I will say I hate the way the calendar is arranged just based on math. There is absolutely no reason for February to only have 28 days. I would have given February one day each from January and from March and that would make the calendar much more symmetrical, with January, February, March and April each with 30 days (31 in February for leap year if you want). January 31st should not exist. -
Because any history is still history, it keeps things interesting. I dont care about dryness, we've had decades of flooding and overly rainy patterns, now we're going back to what our climate should be. Minus the above normal temps.
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I didn't know there were betting markets for snow..... It makes sense though 3" would get NYC to close to 9 inches and that will likely be it for the season.
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If I were going to make a prediction, this is what I would say too. We're not likely to get a 4" snowstorm because those have been hard to come by the last few years and NYC is not likely to get 10" on the season. 1-3 is doable though. To break the 4" snowless streak, let alone the 10" season snowless streak, we're going to need a good pattern.
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because of high solar and +QBO?
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wow congrats, Ray, I always wanted to go on safari in Africa!
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Wow, I bet the last time before that JFK had a -10 month was January 1977, Tony? Or was it December 1989?
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it does sometimes. 15-16 had 40 inches of snow here with an average temperature of 40 degrees. Very similar to 82-83 (but even snowier). But you need a very strong el nino for that. It really depends on how warm it gets. Look at February 2018, it was a warm month during a la nina and we had a 5 inch snowstorm that month. It can happen but don't expect it to stay on the ground more than a day or two. This is the way I would put it: if it's a strong el nino you can still get an HECS during a mild winter. It may be the only major storm of the winter, but you can still get one. If it's a la nina you probably won't get anything more than 4-6 inches in a single snowstorm in a mild winter, but it's still something.
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It makes you wonder if we will ever see winters like 80-81 or 81-82 or 83-84 or 84-85 ever again (let alone 76-77)? These weren't even winters with a lot of snow (near average snow in some of those), but they all had below zero arctic outbreaks. The reason I say this is because I feel like without the effects of climate change, this would have been an early 80s type of winter, not a lot of snow (maybe average) but it would have had a below zero or single digits arctic outbreak and January would have averaged in the mid 20s. We did have 2015-16 which shows it can still get below zero here, but those winters were colder overall too.
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that's pretty much the story of this entire season
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Let's be brave... make a prediction, will NYC get more snow in February than they got in January? It doesn't have to be a snowy February for that to happen, they don't even need a 4" storm for it to happen, all they need is 3.1" of snow. Do you think January will end up NYC's snowiest month this season or will it be February with a worse pattern for snowfall?
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it could have waited until tomorrow
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it's a good thing. There's still a chance to make history!
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hopefully until after midnight
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Chris, what was JFK's average in February 2015 and how far up the list of coldest months would it have been?
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that was generally far snowier to our south (see Norfolk). we got our revenge in 1966-67, a truly historic winter.
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Nowhere near 18 inches here. Haven't had an HECS here since January 2016. January 2018 was very good, but about half of that amount of snow. It's why I call it semi-Jonas. 4-8 SECS 8-16 MECS 16-24 HECS 24+ BECS That's my modified scale, I added a higher top end thanks to January 2016. There needs to be a category above HECS January 2018 was about 15 inches here so just under HECS. January 2022 was 12 inches here.
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Mine was March 2015 2014-2015 was absolutely amazing in February and March. January was pretty good too, but some people are still stuck on the January 2015 *disappointment* of 10 inches of snow. 2014-15 was head and shoulders above 2013-14 which wasn't as great at the coast.
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Generally I'd agree with you, but the issue is that some stations have a much longer POR than other stations, so for example, you can't compare Central Park's 150+ years of numbers vs some other station (likely an airport) which has many fewer years in their POR. I think 60 years is a good middle ground, because most of our airports had started to accumulate weather data 60 years ago.
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I think we also need quantum computing. Our conventional computers just won't cut it.
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Yes please do beat KC, I want their streak of luck to end.
