LibertyBell
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Lows:EWR: -2 (1961)NYC: -3 (1881)LGA: -1 (1961)JFK: -1 (1961) Tony was this great arctic outbreak in February 1961 just before the HECS that dumped 25.1" of snow at JFK? Their biggest snowstorm until PD2 (2003)!
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Looks like primetime begins on or after February 7th and the AO bottoms out around the 15th. If we extend this outward it should become positive again by the 23rd, so we should score something by or before then.
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Around what time do you think the pattern begins to relax-- February 25th?
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Yeah I'd like someone to run some numbers and point out what our best 15 day period is for double digit (10"+) snowstorms, but I think it would be approximately from Feb 5 - Feb 20.
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a gorgeous pink/purple sunrise here and 17 degrees !!
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So this wont be a Feb 10 - 25 kind of 15 day window, Chris? What are you looking at for the peak of the pattern, from Feb 15-20?
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Driest January on record at Mt Pocono too!!
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I think that night when we were snowing heavily the winds were howling out of the south though? Maybe we can go back and check, but that was one WILD night! -
and that is our classic period for big snowstorms. For NYC it's between February 5-20 and that is exactly when this pattern gets going.
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This is the main reason to be somewhat excited....
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that the GFS is that high is GREAT even if it's not right, because how far off can it be? Even 1/3 of that amount would be just fine!
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But it's the time of year that matters. The waters are at their coldest starting now.
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as a matter of fact I remember you were the one who was amazed in that snowicane storm in February 2010 and said wow we're getting blizzard conditions on a southerly wind, now I've seen it all lol.
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how cold are the SST? we're at the time of year when an onshore flow shouldn't matter so much..... February has been known to give us snowstorms even on a southerly wind (see the last storm in February 2010.)
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yeah no one really cares about snowcover in urban areas, it's a nuisance. we just want to see snow falling from the sky. forget March, you can get snow sticking during the day in April too
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it has happened before several times see December 1989 as one infamous example that was even more extreme.
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there's no such thing as luck bro, this has happened before and will happen again, it's because of the fast pacific jet and we're just in a very dry pattern and have been for months.
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the waters of the gulf were excessively warm thats why they got those extreme snowfall totals
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and like the NWS themselves said, there's been more snow this January than the last two Januarys combined. People just need to reassess what they consider snowy, 3 inches of snow in a month is actually pretty good now.
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I think 3-5 inches of snow in February is way more likely than a 0.1 inch of ZR
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If anything it's the latter part of February where we'll have our best chances of getting snow. The pattern will likely completely breakdown into spring in March. It never happens in February, because in this month you can easily go from 60 one day to snow the next day-- seen it a million times. There's a chance that NYC could double its snowfall totals in a late February storm, similar to February 2008.
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coastal areas don't get much ZR probably wet snow or rain
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Snowman should be happy to hear this, he has been talking about the big ridge for February.
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if it's like February 2008 as some have been talking about, we will get at least one decent event and it will be in the latter part of the month.
