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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    I guess it depends. For some people seeing a simulation of snow on a map is almost as good as the real thing, so when it doesn't happen it doesn't matter because in their minds they've already received the high they get from tracking it. So in a way it's already happened for them. And who knows, maybe in an alternate earth in another universe it actually did happen....
  2. LibertyBell
    cool, let's have an early summer then wait, did I say cool.... I meant HOT
  3. LibertyBell
    Was the same the case in 1955-56 (that winter gets compared to it).
  4. LibertyBell
    Yes, you know my favorite enso phase is a la nina after an el nino, those are great for hot and dry summers and snowy winters. I'm hoping for this combo after this fiasco of a winter.
  5. LibertyBell
    But you can take out the SSW part and just say we need the Pacific to cooperate and it's cold enough. This would work with or without the SSW, so maybe the SSW isn't important at all?
  6. LibertyBell
    We also had the nice St Paddys Day storm in 07.... my doors were stuck shut lol
  7. LibertyBell
    Best ice storm since 1994. I would also argue that 14-15 was another season where we started out bad and ended up with a very good season. 1977-78 too but that one is held sacred lol
  8. LibertyBell
    Yes, I've found that as long as it doesn't change over or mix (much), JFK does better because it's close to the ocean. Was February 1961 also one of these cases-- did JFK have more moisture than NYC in this one too, Don?
  9. LibertyBell
    Maybe undermeasured at Central Park, like perhaps February 1961 also was.
  10. LibertyBell
    I wonder if some of those 60s storms were undermeasured at Central Park because there's a few of them that had more snow at JFK. Besides the Lindsey storm (which also dropped 20" at LGA), there was also the February 1961 blockbluster which dropped 24.1" of snow at JFK (even though it mixed over at times!) That was the biggest snow storm at JFK until PD2, which was then exceeded by January 2016.
  11. LibertyBell
    Wow, I thought it might be more like a lesser version of April 2, 2018 The Lindsey storm was an HECS lol. Why do we make these models available to the general public?
  12. LibertyBell
    Happening at the right time of day and preferably night will also help.
  13. LibertyBell
    It's good to see both the GFS and Euro show a south of benchmark track, however we will need some cold air, because a good track with not enough cold air is just cold rain or a cold rain changing to snow showers at the end.
  14. LibertyBell
    I like that we use only 0z and 12z model runs for this and the amounts seem to be going up, slightly.... I like a forecast of 2-3 for now.
  15. LibertyBell
    I think we should be happy if we get 2-3 from this storm. 3-5 is still possible but unlikely near the coast. I just don't understand the forecasts saying zero accumulation for the coast.
  16. LibertyBell
    Is the real issue not having enough - NAO blocking? I noticed that even when the AO is negative, the NAO doesn't seem to turn negative anymore.
  17. LibertyBell
    What the lack of blocking does is keep the rain/snow line close, which is why there were so many mixing events in 1993-94 and a few in 2013-14 too.
  18. LibertyBell
    1965-66 one snowstorm winter (and we were on the edge of that snowstorm, look at snowfall totals for DC and Norfolk, VA lol) 1987-88 one snowstorm winter, it was one of the best snowstorms between 1983 and 1993, we barely missed getting into double digits with a 9 plus inch snowstorm in January, it was the second consecutive year we got a 9 plus inch snowstorm in January (January 1987 was the other one.) The next time we received a 9 inch snowstorm was in the 1990-91 winter (the famous 36 hour wet snowstorm in February) we discussed before, which also had two 5 plus inch events.
  19. LibertyBell
    The middle three years were really awful, the first year wasn't that good either, it was just one storm, and we were on the edge of it lol. Look up the snowfall totals of 1965-66 for DC and Norfolk, Virgina. And that was a strong el nino and has been used as an analog for this season. The following year we were at cold neutral close to weak la nina and look how great 1966-67 was for snowfall. So maybe next season we'll finally get a good season. I'm not expecting 1995-96 or 2010-11 type la nina after el nino, but hopefully we'll get closer to average snowfall next season.
  20. LibertyBell
    And there are some years when we had zero blocking but still had a great deal of snow and very cold temperatures, 1993-94 being a case in point.
  21. LibertyBell
    Don is it possible the rapidly strengthening storm will bring down even colder air? The weather channel mentioned the storm will get down to 950 mb (!) and will stall out, but that's when it's near Nova Scotia. Still this storm is going make major headlines next week.
  22. LibertyBell
    I think the clouds moved in too quickly, and low clouds at that. I saw obs further east and it's still mostly clear in Suffolk County but there's a low overcast here.
  23. LibertyBell
    I'd be shocked if we at the high end got more than a couple inches, but none of the official forecasts have even that much for us right now. The only ones who are talking about significant accumulations near the coast is the weather channel, and it looks like they're going by the straight model runs lol. For example, my local weather channel forecast has snow (no mix, just snow) all day Tuesday with a high of 40 after a low of 34 Tuesday morning.
  24. LibertyBell
    The storm that immediately comes to mind when we had a nice snowfall with temps just above freezing was April 2, 2018. That was much later in the season, but our weather had been cold for weeks before that storm-- still it's strange to say early April was more favorable for snow than early February lol.
  25. LibertyBell
    It was a bit weird though, the colors in the sky were best well before sunrise and then now they've faded into grey even though the sun hasn't completely risen yet. Usually the best colors happen right at sunrise or a little after.
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