LibertyBell

I know we had something like this in New York in 1998 towards the end of March, but the one I remember the best is the epic warm stretch in mid March in 1990 when we wore tshirts and shorts to school lol. It came close to 90 degrees! But after this it got cold again and we had 1-2" of snow in early April. And all this was after an epically mild January and February (for back then anyway) which came after a historically cold and dry December which came after our biggest Thanksgiving snowstorm which came after one of our most destructive fall severe seasons on record. The period from October 1989 through April 1990 was about as extreme as you can get in terms of weather.

I guess from JFK to NYC? I'll add in ABE and MPO JFK-2" NYC-4" ABE 8" MPO 12" Does this sound like a good estimate with the info we have right now?

do you still think the pattern breaks down by the 24th or will the SSW keep it going to the end of the month or even first week of March?

when?

Sounds like Presidents Day is our best bet. I'll be happy with 2 inches with this one.

Don what do you think here? The NBE is slowly increasing so maybe 2-4 is a nice call here to account for the Euro?

to be fair, I think he's only talking about the people on TV.... and he's right, they're not very good.

why don't we have a blocking high to the north-- wouldn't that be climo for early February? I also saw that the AO is negative, doesn't that mean there's blocking present?

Okay so here's an idea, if it's the western parts of the oceans that are warming more rapidly maybe it's because the continents are warming more quickly and because the general air circulation pattern is west to east, it would cause the heat to transfer from the warming continents to the western part of the oceans first? But then we have to deal with the effects of upwelling.... This is complicated lol.

Okay so let's go with the idea that this is cyclic and we are going to see a repeat of the 70s through the 80s. But if this is cyclic then we should have seen something like the 70s through the 80s before. But we didn't-- those two decades (let's forget the 90s they were near normal snowfall wise, let's just stick with average snowfall)-- really stick out for being the lowest on record in the entire history of record keeping at Central Park. Pre 55 was pretty good for snowfall, certainly MUCH better than the 70s and 80s, we had some of our snowiest and coldest years in the 30s and 40s (and yes also some of our mildest in the 30s.) Now if we say it's a combo of cyclic AND climate change, then it makes more sense, because that would explain why the 70s and 80s were so much worse than the previous snowfall minimal decades. But that would also mean that what we're now entering will probably be worse than the 70s and 80s were.

I just saw that climate scientists are worried because about 40% of the jump in warmth this year can't be explained-- even after accounting for the strong el nino and the regular increase of 0.2C per decade. For some reason we saw a 25x increase in just one year.

Vampires live there.

it's nice to see the sun, cloudy and mild is what sucks, cloudy and cold too unless it snows.

no one has properly explained why the WPAC is so much warmer than the EPAC? what makes that part of the Pacific so different from the rest?

wow so the 1899 and 1934 arctic outbreaks happened on the same day? It looks like they came close to matching our all time historic winter in 1783-84 that we have talked about previously? it would be interesting to see national maps of the cold for all three of these arctic outbreaks (I'm sure a map can be made using the available data on 1784, 1899 and 1934 so we can compare the three?) It looks like the cold in 1784 extended for a much longer period of time (many months) than the other two? Were they all accompanied by big snowstorms? That is the difference between the arctic cold back then vs the big arctic shots in the 80s-- those were all cold and dry and on bare ground not snow covered ground. 1899: One of the most significant cold outbreaks to ever impact the United States occurred early to mid-February. From the 8th-11th, the statewide average temperature across Iowa was 14.6 degrees below zero, making it the coldest four-day stretch on record in the state. On the 8th, Sioux City experienced its coldest day on record, with a daily average temperature of 24 degrees below zero. Then on the 11th, they reached their second-coldest temperature on record with a low of minus 31. Overall the coldest readings were obtained on the morning of the 9th when reported low temperatures included -21 at Keokuk, -23 at Des Moines, -33 at New Hampton, -35 at Le Mars, -38 at Estherville, and -40 at Sibley. The cold across the middle of the country was so extreme and persistent that ice floes down the Mississippi River into the deep south, emerging into the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans on February 17th. This has happened only one other time: February 13, 1784. The temperature dropped to 63 degrees below zero at Norway House, Manitoba, Canada setting the province's low-temperature record.

I know but it seems like unstacked lows always seem to mix or change to rain on the south shore. There hasn't been an all snow 6"+ storm here since 2017 or 2018.

The most recent example we have of this is April 2, 2018. We don't need to get to 32.... but it needs to be 33-34 at least, 35-36 won't cut it for more than an inch or two (at the very most.)

I like the top one better, the bottom one seems to indicate more rain.

Thanks, it's in my floppy disk collection around here somewhere. Back in the late 80s was when we first started using those 3.5" disks (I liked them a lot better than the larger 5.25" disks because they weren't as "floppy" and were a lot more durable and didn't have an exposed magnetic surface like the larger sized floppies do.)

He would want rain to Greenland if this was the Greenland subforum lol

too bad they were too little to remember 2009-10 and 2010-11 2010-11 honestly was our best winter since 1995-96. I've not seen actual snow cover that high before or since. Snowstorm on top of snowstorm on top of snowstorm.

add 1997-98, 2001-02 and a few others to this list too.

Wow I wrote a short story called The Last Snow back in February 1989 as a sophomore in high school when yet another busted call for 6-8 inches turned into virga. It was a story set in the future about a group of storm chasers celebrating the last snowstorm that the Planet Earth would ever see.

They brought in January 1961 into this too? LMAO Why not February 1961? January 1961 was the least of the three big storms that winter.

You know this is why I prefer vertically stacked lows that move very slowly or even loop, because the 700/850 lows are right where the surface low is. Less chance of mixing or changing over.