LibertyBell

One of my favorite storms, never changed to rain (the rain/snow line was north south rather than east west).

it only changed to rain in the last hour or two here from what I remember. Around 8 inches at JFK?

what would it take for us to engineer the climate to prevent this from happening? just from a hypothetical point of you.

It's okay I wouldn't have had a chance to enjoy it, I got an intense stomach bug around 8 PM last night after eating a banana of all things, a sharp fever and shivering, nausea and dizziness and eventually vomiting. Now starting to recover but finding it hard to believe that eating a banana could cause all this. Now I don't want to eat any solid food today and just drink juice lol

January 1991 is the one I remember from the early 90s I think. We hadn't had a 6+ event in a long time and everyone was excited that we'd get a 6 inch snowstorm even though it would change to rain later. It snowed most of the day and didn't change to rain until after it was dark, which was perfect timing, the reverse (snow at night rain during the day) would not be as nice. Of course the following month, February 1991 I think it was, we had the 36 hour 9 inch snowstorm, so we ended the 6 inch snowless streak with a bang (and a busted forecast, as no snow was predicted, it was just supposed to be a frontal passage- and neither BOS nor PHL got snow like we did.) On the topic of snow to rain, wasn't January 87 another heavy snow to rain storm? Maybe just at the end?

Ever wonder why the reason is that long range forecasts are so inaccurate? It's not just about not having the right tech or enough data..... what if it's that the future is in flux and it isn't set in stone until it actually happens? It would mean that no amount of AI or quantum computing could ever pin down something as specifically chaotic as snowfall amounts and rain/snow lines weeks or even days in advance. Think about it, what if a whole myriad of futures is possible and little unpredictable chaotic black swan events can alter it radically so there really is no way to predict the future until it actually happens? For us, an example of a black swan event was the Boxing Day blizzard in December 2010. Before that snowstorm happened there was talk of a snowless winter because we had less than 3 inches of snow in December and you know how it goes with la ninas with less than 3 inches of snow by New Years Day. When the GFS latched on to it, everyone laughed because none of the other models did. The rest as they say is history.

They just had a child together!

When I was a kid and saw this happen I tried to calculate how high a wall would need to put up to block the warmer air from coming in off the ocean or failing that, how much liquid helium we'd need to dump into the ocean to freeze it solid.

Yep I think 4" is the point where it's okay if it flips over. I remember we had a storm in the early 90s (maybe Feb 93) with 4 inches of snow in 4 hours and then rain for 4 hours. We got 4 inches and Central Park got 6 inches because they were snow for an extra 2 hours before it changed over there. There was still enough snow left over at the end for it to look wintry here. Anything less than 4 and it's not worth it.

so thats when we could get something other than an SWFE snow to rain.

this could be a good thing to fight back against suppession

anything is better than *puking*

It doesn't change the fact that the pattern will get much better after the 10th. Let's just hope it doesn't lead to suppression.

he showed you!

It's interesting that there's 15.1 inches south of us in Delaware and 14.6 inches north of us in CT, so are these 3 systems a mix of SWFE and suppressed?

Maybe not quite as anomalous because it's February and not March? A few of those systems were quite borderline so more snow should be expected than we had that month since we're still in the middle of winter.

ugh not more suppression..... why can't it be suppressed until it reaches the ocean and then climb up the coast?

Don, are the Euro HIRES and EPS nao projections accurate though, they have the NAO around -2 to even -3 (EPS) by the 15th also (between the 11th and the 17th)..... the Euro AI drops it down even lower than that all the way down to -5.

are they forecasting a time loop too (or three).....

Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.

Thanks, Tony, back then we used to have subzero arctic shots followed quickly by HECS!

the wisest people are those who realize that the more they learn, the more there is yet left to learn.

so a stratospheric polar vortex disruption is also *canonical* la nina?

Here's to 1961 the coldest Groundhogs Day of all time, soon to be followed by a 2 foot blizzard!!

storm coming in backwards, east to west, Walt?