LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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we had this all the time in the 80s, see my previous post to see how it happens
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Thats not how it usually works though. What usually happens is when the weather is cold it's also suppressed. In between cold shots we get a cutter and rain. It can be a -3 January with 4 inches of total liquid but 80% or more of that is rain.
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The sun this afternoon melted some of the snowcover here, went from 80% down to about 60% by sunset.
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Don when did the December so-called average temperature become so high? I distinctly remember December average temperatures being around 36 only a couple of decades ago.
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depends on what people consider a great pattern. I'll set my markers as follows If we get at least 4 storms of at least 2-4 inches of snow and single digit cold in at least two outbreaks I'll be happy. We already had one of those 2-4 inch storms in December. That would be better than either of the last two winters by a long shot.
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and no HECS or above 29" winter between 1983-84 and 1991-92
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It's easier to predict cold than snow most definitely. As far as NYC is concerned, at peak cold, I think single digit temperatures are a high probability. Not 0 or below because that's very rare anyway but 5 or so might be a reasonable possibility.
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It would be nice to place some benchmarks for the type of cold we might see. I notice you often use NYC and ATL for your benchmarks. I'm not familiar with ATL climo but as far as NYC is concerned, at peak cold, I think single digit temperatures are a high probability. Not 0 or below because that's very rare anyway but 5 or so might be a reasonable possibility.
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This is why it's safer to assume we'll see a few 1-3 inch events like we got in January 2009 rather than some blockbuster event, especially in such a fast flow pattern. It's not a matter of luck but of the actual pattern regardless of the state of the indices.
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HO HO HO How long has the sun been out for you
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just need to correct that they got 2002 backwards
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also need to factor in the lag effect of the solar max for upcoming winters
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Not only that you are actually getting winter during peak climo winter rather than waiting for February, this is a lot better than the torch Decembers we get in el ninos
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Maybe by January 20, but at least we can have a wintry period when the days are shortest and when we have our peak climo coldest weather.
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This might be controversial, but I'd rather have a La Nina than an El Nino. El Nino winters torch early and seem to enhance the effects of global warming. Thanks to La Nina we at least got a cold and somewhat snowy holiday period. I'll take this over a torch December and praying for a fluke January/February blizzard which is what you need to get to normal snowfall in an el nino. This is MUCH better.
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Ed, I saw that the skies were clearing out by you early on, the sun only came out here about 20 minutes ago so maybe that delayed the melt here a little. Merry Christmas, this is the most wintry it's felt around Christmas in a few years.
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thank la nina I hate torch Decembers -
I must be at the lower extent of the white in SW Nassau, we have 1" of snow here on all natural surfaces, I posted pictures in the other thread. I love that 2.5 off the south shore of Fire Island lol
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this is exactly why I'll take a la nina over the typical el nino torch December
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This might be controversial, but I'd rather have a La Nina than an El Nino. El Nino winters torch early and seem to enhance the effects of global warming. Thanks to La Nina we at least got a cold and somewhat snowy holiday period. I'll take this over a torch December and praying for a fluke January/February blizzard which is what you need to get to normal snowfall in an el nino. This is MUCH better.
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You also have a lot more sun than we do, the sun only just started to poke through here a few minutes ago.
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It's been cloudy all morning, the sun just came out 15 minutes ago so not much meltage today either.
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You have a lot less snow than we do here Thats a surprise
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wow what the hell you have a lot less snow than we do, we have about 80% coverage here
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to be fair though these storms usually happen after the holidays. you rarely get them in December
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