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LibertyBell

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  1. LibertyBell
    Only one 90 degree day in August and even that was a very weak 91, how often has August not had any 90 degree days, Don?
  2. LibertyBell
    Was 1963-64 an el nino summer Chris? If so there are two el nino summers ahead of it, 1963 and 2002. This was an extremely front loaded summer, no really hot days after the middle of July. Summer ended after July 15th. Too much rain for it to be hot. The early part of July was like a less extreme version of 1966 but the pattern didn't hold because the dryness in 1966 lasted until the blockbuster winter of 1966-67 began. What do you think of the idea that a very wet last month of summer leads to a warm less snowy winter?
  3. LibertyBell
    The top 3 in the coldest lows range are all close to me and 1986 is the year our family purchased this property and the year this house was built but back then we only spent the summers here. From Tony's chronology I can see that 1982 also had a cold outbreak around this time. Both strong el ninos. Meanwhile that super heatwave in 1953 was fully underway by now. It seems like back in the 80s and 90s it was both hotter and drier and colder and drier. Back then we could get desert dry air from the southwest which is how August 1980 was so hot and how JFK hit 100 in both July and August in 1983 and how NYC almost hit 100 in September in 1983 and why those 1988 and 1993 heatwaves were so long or polar dry air from the north which is why we got those early fall like airmasses in August 1982 and 1986. Now you need rain and a muggy onshore wind to get cool air. With poor sky conditions too. Chris is Lake Harmony the only coop that reports snowfall around here? I've been trying to find snowfall averages around this area. Can you locate other snowfall reporting sites around here within a 10 mile radius at or above 1500 feet? Thanks!
  4. LibertyBell
    That's excessive for me too. I experienced 116 out in the desert and it was way too much. I think 110 and higher is too much. It feels like being stung with burning needles. When JFK had a heat index of 117 on back to back days in 2019 I think it was although the high was only 99 on both days that was too much. I'm fine with 103 degrees and 30 percent humidity but not 99 degrees and 50 percent humidity. The hottest I've experienced in NY is 103 I dont buy those 106-107 degrew temperatures reported on the south shore of Nassau county the last two summers. The houses are just too close together and there's way too much traffic to accurately report temperature, I learned that after relocating here and having 2 acres of land to properly place weather sensors I'm always within a degree or two of Mount Pocono even though I'm south of there and over 300 feet lower in elevation. I experienced July 1977 in Manhattan when it hit 104 but was too young to remember it, all I remember from that summer is being scared during the big blackout and all the police sirens. Although I have issues with how the heat index is calculated because I hated the 81 degrees with a dew point of 81 in June 1996 during a supposedly cool summer the heat index was only 93 but it felt more like 113 to me. My big problem with this summer are all the stuck fronts and cutoff nonsense that's not normal for us. I'd like either hot and sunny or cool and sunny. If fronts are going to come in they should just keep moving. I love my pristine blue skies just like we had today. Next week looks like a humid disgusting sky nightmare again.
  5. LibertyBell
    First fall like day had a low of 47 here at 7 am this morning and a high of 73 at 4 pm pristine blue skies. First 40s here since June.
  6. LibertyBell
    I think people complain mostly about the humidity not the temperatures per se. I distinctly remember a few people on here who said that they were surprised how enjoyable they found the dry low humidity heat of 2010 even though it was above 100 for July 4th weekend just like it was this year. That was the ideal summer 100 degrees with 20 percent humidity. I'm not surprised they enjoyed that weather either, dry heat is VERY therapeutic to the human body. That was my favorite summer of all time. Followed by the 1993 summer which had the greatest heatwave I've ever experienced.
  7. LibertyBell
    1955 was very similar to 1999 both were very hot summers. Part of the well known 11 year cycle.
  8. LibertyBell
    There are also such things as pools and beaches. I have an inground pool here myself but only used it for a few days this summer because it's rained so much. Today was a really good day though, around 75 here and mostly sunny and a nice cool breeze at 1600 feet. Looks like a clear night coming up, why couldn't we have had this last night for the eclipse instead of those nuisance thunderstorms? It didn't clear out here last night until after 1:30. I really dislike thunder and lightning I'm always worried it will hit me especially up here. I had to hire a logging company to clear all the tall trees within 100 feet of this house back in 2018 when a microburst happened and I had to replace part of the roof and the railing on the bedroom balcony.
  9. LibertyBell
    Yes and I think that drought also caused the record heat in the triple digits for multiple days at coastal locations like JFK. That will likely resume next summer after this el Nino ends. I fully expect 90 degree heat to begin early in April next spring and continue through September. What I don't expect to see are the super heat waves of double digit length we had in years like 1953 and 1993. That did not happen even in 2010. So lots of 90 degree days and multiple 100 degree days next summer even at JFK but probably no 7 day plus heatwaves.
  10. LibertyBell
    The drought is just a natural cyclical feed back response to the excessively rainy years we have had since 2002. Consider the el nino summers of 1991, 1994 and 2002 to see summer heat during a developing el nino. We are now cycling back to that drier era and after this el Nino is over that will only increase.
  11. LibertyBell
    No but they love heat. Just look at where the greatest growth and movement of people is happening, to warmer climates. This can be explained if you look at where humans came from-- Africa. So we are naturally attuned to a hotter climate. Most of the die offs our species has had were associated with ice ages not heat. If you asked people to chose where to live strictly based on weather most people would pick hot summer over cold winter every time. They just don't want to pay excessive heating bills. Look at it this way the warmer the winter is the less the amount of fossil fuels that will be used. This summer was not hot not on the level of the truly historic summers I often reference. Speaking of death traps the highest number of heat related deaths happened in years like 1980 and 1995. We really have not had that kind of widespread coast to coast heat that lasts for months since then. Flooding is far more of a concern now. I think next year we will see that kind of heat though and hopefully not the deaths or the smoke. I hate to say this but the forests need to be trimmed back.
  12. LibertyBell
    I'd like to see what kind of pattern we had in late August 1948 and late August and early September 1953 with the kind of late season heat that hasn't been matched since. Speaking of hot August weather that was some real multi-day triple digit heat! If those patterns happened now what would the temperatures be? As far as el nino heat is concerned how does this summer compare to 1991, 1994 and 2002, those are my benchmark summers for el nino heat. There is some speculation that the type of heat we had between 1944 and 1955 and 1966 which really has not been matched since had to do with nuke testing, specifically hydrogen bomb testing.
  13. LibertyBell
    Let's be honest though 90 percent of the population loves hot summers. People wait for 9 months for hot summers so they can go to the beach. The last thing they want is spring or fall weather in the summer. They drive the economy too. And out of the 10 percent who like cool and rainy summers 90 percent are on here lol.
  14. LibertyBell
    Chris numbers can be made to show anything, the point is this summer doesn't hold a candle to any of the ones I mentioned, not even last summer, let alone 2010, 2005, 2002, 1999, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1988, 1983, 1980 and those are 10 just off the top of my head that were much hotter. Yes we had an extremely hot 4 day period so this summer was like a much lesser version of 1966. 1966 also had a three day 100 plus streak at JFK but each of those days was hotter not to mention heat waves were much longer back then. Our summer ended after July 15th.
  15. LibertyBell
    1948 WOW now THAT was a real summer and if I'm not mistaken JFKs latest 100 degree day and back to back 100 degree days and NYC had three in a row in late August no less!!!
  16. LibertyBell
    I think any reset will be short lived. Nothing will stop a la nina from happening the following winter and we'll be back to a hot and dry pattern Lakepaste, the problem with hot and wet is it makes nasty disease carrying bugs overpopulate and then I have to spend the entire summer spraying even nastier chemicals both outside and inside.
  17. LibertyBell
    Good riddance? This is your kind of summer, cool and wet. Personally I can't stand it (thats what fall is for) but I'm looking forward to next summer which I'm pretty sure will be very hot and dry, just as sure as I am that the upcoming winter will be mild and rainy. Tripol you must be really young if you think this was one of the hottest summers on record lol. You dont remember last summer, let alone 2010 or 2005 or 2002 or 1999 or 1995 or 1993 or 1991 or 1988 or 1983 or 1980? Those are just the ones I remember there were a lot more before my time too. And if you think this is hot just wait until you experience next summer lol.
  18. LibertyBell
    Some of those 80s and 90s summers really were endless summers which we dont get anymore nor do we get heat covering the entire country cosst to coast like we did in 1980 and 1988. We always talk about how we dont get coast to coast cold like we did in 1979 but to be fair we dont get coast to coast heat anymore either. Its always heat in one part of the country but not the other now. Also EWR and LGA are most heavily affected by UHI, population density and increased volume of traffic and the resultant pollution from car exhaust. 1980 had the hottest July August combo on record 60 day average over 80 degrees how did both LGA and JFK have far fewer 90 degree days than NYC and EWR? Also it was around this time in the endless summer of 1983 JFK had their latest 100 degree temperature and the last time it happened there in August. One time in July and one time in August there in 1983.
  19. LibertyBell
    Chris any idea what the annual snowfall average should be around here? I get varying numbers from 50 inches per year to 70 inches per year. It must be strongly dependent on elevation. I'm actually served by the Jim Thorpe post office (the town is considered the Switzerland of the United States with its own clock tower and mountains in the background it reminds me of the quaint old town from Back to the Future lol.) But I'm regularly 7-10 degrees cooler than Jim Thorpe proper because my elevation is around 1600 feet here. Bear Creek Lake which is just to my east has an elevation of 1544 feet. When Lehighton hit 101 in early July we only made it to 93-94 on two days. The nearest airport to here is K12N 9.6 miles from here in Lehighton. Do you have any other nearby snowfall measuring locations besides Lake Harmony? Albrightsville is also near by as is Summit Hill. Need to match elevations to get a proper snowfall estimate. What is the least amount of snow that Mount Pocono has ever had in a season and the most? For monthly records I think they received around 4 feet of snow in January 1987. February 1988 and Mrach 1993. I remember coming here right after the 1993 Superstorm and the first floor of this house was buried in snow! The only time anything like that ever came close to happening on Long Island was in the winter of 2010-11.
  20. LibertyBell
    I used to think so too I'm just a little north of you in the Poconos in actuality we need both el ninos and la ninas we just don't want either to get too strong. Our best summers and winters come in the transition years from el nino to la nina think 1995-96 and 2010-11. So the transition period between el nino and la nina might be the most exciting time both for summer and winter weather.
  21. LibertyBell
    I love reading your posts they are always very informative John! Are you aware of Sir Roger Penrose's Conformal Cyclical Cosmology? He uses geometry to explain how the expansion of the universe could be one in many cycles of expansion and contraction and how what seems like increasing entropy will one day maybe a trillion years from now lead to a return to a very low entropy state like at the so called Big Bang which was really a Big Bounce. It doesn't violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics as long as the universe is at least slightly larger with each reiteration of the cycle. Think of a ball rolling up and down successive hills with potential energy being converted to kinetic energy as it rolls downhill and being converted back to potential energy as it rolls up the next hill. This is how a cyclic universe would be possible with the ball rolling downhill representing expansion and the ball rolling uphill representing contraction. Reason being that going uphill goes against gravity and going downhill happens because of gravity. Each cell living, breathing and dying really is like its own universe but also cyclic in a way because nothing is ever truly destroyed (the Law of Conservation of Mass-Energy) it just changes form and becomes part of the next whole. The idea of the primary colors representing the universe are intriguing. You could have space represented by the additive primaries of RGB red green blue and the arrow of time represented by black in our universe and an anniversary with its anti-space represented by the subtractive primaries of CMY cyan magenta yellow and an equal but opposite arrow of time represented by white, so as our universe expands its anniversary contracts and vice versa. By the way are you familiar with the search for superhabitable planets John? The idea being that our planet is not ideal for life for various reasons. Based on the research paper I've read the ideal planet would have a Hawaii type climate planet wide. The idea being this is ideal for greatest biodiversity. It would have an orange type K star as its sun since such a star spends 2 to 3 times more time on the stable main sequence that our yellow type G sun will, is about 1.5 times more massive than our planet so it can retain a denser atmosphere, gets about twice as much rain as we do and has an average temperature 5 to 8 degrees Celsius higher. It mostly describes our climate during the Mesozoic before the big asteroid hit! Only one planet has been found that seems to fit all the criteria and it's about 1100 light years away.
  22. LibertyBell
    Yuck lol can't grow any of that here the rabbits and deer would eat everything. On the plus side though the big rabbits that I have here eat all the weeds and are quite tame and look at me quite calmly while I snap pictures of them near one of my ponds. August is a lost month around here and no longer part of summer I'd say. It's not quite fall either though I'd say our summers have become limited to June and July while August and September can be considered part of a new fifth season we could call the monsoon season like what they have in India and the SW. There's a nearly total lunar eclipse that peaks at 93% at 12:12 am on Friday but as usual it will be too cloudy to see anything. Two clear days out of seven is not my idea of summer. Normal summer weather in our area should at a bare minimum include 6 clear days out of 7 and I'd strive for 9 clear days out of 10 with one inch of rain every 10 days.
  23. LibertyBell
    I dislike el ninos too our most interesting weather happens during la Nina's so if there was a way to modify the climate the first thing I would look at are a network of underwater devices that would prevent super el ninos from happening. I also agree with you that la nina is the natural state and a big one is coming in the next 1 to 2 years and very likely a very hot and dry summer like 1966, 1983, 1999 and 2010 had. I look forward to it.
  24. LibertyBell
    I think a near record low snowfall season is just about baked in for next winter. I've mentioned this several times but some of our best snowfall winters are preceded by very hot and dry summers. Think 1966, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010 and even last summer 2025. I'm thinking for NYC snowfall of less than 10 inches and an average temperature for the winter over 40 degrees. Those who like rainy summers should also like snowless winters because they go together. As far any hope is concerned the only hope is that the winter after next will be great a la 1995-96 (just on a lesser level) after 1994-95 after 1993-94 (which had similarities to last winter just on a lesser level.) The chances of a very hot and very dry summer in 2027 are very high and if that happens a snowy winter should follow in 2027-28.
  25. LibertyBell
    Omg this is definitely not normal for summer the ground is supposed to be dry in the summer lol that's why people can go to the beach and our baseball stadiums don't need to be covered with domes. Granted summer is over and my heat was on all day today.
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