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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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No one wanted this mess looks like my old haunts had a tornado I'm sure the power was out there for a few hours it always happens in weather like this. It rained here for 6 hours between 12:30 and 6:30 with temperatures in the low 60s my heat turned on. I didn't lose power but my TV signal went out from 2:30 to 6:30 when the sun came back out the TV signal came back. It always goes out in heavy rain. Got 1.5 inches in 6 hours so no flooding but lots of water ponded in the grass.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
This is exactly why I stated we are approaching entropy. In that sense ACC is entirely normal because the entire universe is headed towards entropy. Also see my post in the El Nino thread about there being no ice on this planet for 85 percent of its history. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LibertyBell replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I dont know how many of you are aware of this but for 85% of this planet's history there was no ice anywhere on the planet. That being said yes the planet self regulates and as an example the Amazon even controls its own rainfall. The planet will be fine even either way the question is will humanity? Human beings are not the only creatures to alter the planet and ACC is nowhere close to the worst thing that's ever happened to this planet. Blue green algae aka phytobacteria altered the entire composition of the atmosphere and without them we wouldn't be here. The K-T event that ended the dinosaurs and 75% of all life on the planet was far worse than ACC is and happened in a much shorter time frame and the planet recovered just fine. As a matter of fact ACC can be thought of as the revenge of the dinosaurs as it may cause the climate to return to what it was like before the K-T event by literally burning their remains! -
I dont know how familiar you are with our climate but summers are supposed to be dry and moderate summer droughts are entirely normal. Alarmism based on color coded maps is unnecessary and unwarranted. Flooding is FAR worse than a moderate drought. Droughts normally end in the Fall anyway no need to spoil the summer even more.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LibertyBell replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
As long as it's in the winter. I like my summers hot and dry to keep the mosquitoes away and to get a good view of the Perseids. This is the 40th anniversary of the first time I saw them, 4 nights in August 1986 and that was a whole week of nice clear early Fall kind of weather no haze and temperatures in the low 50s. No mosquitoes either!. -
I distinctly remember August 1986 as a very cool and dry month like early fall. I dont mind a cool summer as long as it's dry. Was that a developing El Nino too? That was my first year of viewing the Perseids and the best weather for them four nights of completely clear skies, cool, no haze and no mosquitoes! Never saw anything like that since. This house in the Poconos was built in 1986 and I was here in July for the 4th but for the Perseids in August I was back on Long Island.
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This is yet another reason I love hot and dry weather far fewer mosquitoes.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LibertyBell replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I thought so too but there were some amazing and widespread heat waves back then that haven't been matched since. Early July 1911 is a case in point. Mount Pocono was 98, 99 and 103 for three straight days and has never been higher than 95 since then. I thought this had to be an instrument error but then I saw Boston all time high of 104 is from the same period and even the mountains of northern New England were over 100 degrees. That was some mega heat dome and for reference a 103 degree reading at Mount Pocono is a sea level adjusted temperature of 114 degrees! -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LibertyBell replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How could there possibly have been a 4 year el nino in the late 1700s? That has to be fiction. What we did have back then was a gigantic volcanic eruption in Iceland called Toba and that altered our climate in a big way for years to come. -
This list is interesting to me because the top 2 came after great winters and the previous summers were super hot especially 1966. Number 3 also had an epic end to the snow season and the previous summer was also extremely hot. It's also interesting that 1977 is on this list when it had one of the hottest two week stretches this region has ever seen. Ditto 1953. I wonder how this list looks for Mount Pocono, I know how cold it was here in the summer of 1992 I had my fireplace going most of the summer. Chris do you have a list of that and also the summers with the most highs below 70 degrees at both JFK and MPO? It was only in the mid 60s here yesterday and I remembered how much I hate it when the high temperature is below 70 and it's cloudy all day. It's bad enough that we have to deal with that in Spring and Fall, Summer is not supposed to be that way, Summer should be sunny, dry and hot with maybe one or two hours of rain per week that doesn't interfere with the sunshine or the heat. It's fine if it's cool and sunny because I have a ton of skylights that bring in the solar warmth but my house gets cold quickly if I dont have the heat or a fireplace on and there's no sunshine. On the flip side because of the size of the house and how much of it is tiled and the outside is insulated with both fiberglass and stone it does not heat up quickly in the summer even if it's hot outside. Even without turning my window AC on the house is 10-15 degrees cooler than the outside temperature in the heat. That's a good thing because only two rooms in this house are supportive of window AC a bedroom upstairs and the living room downstairs. In terms of heat when JFK was hitting 100-102 in early July it only got to 93-94 here and that 4 day stretch was the only time it was 90 or above here. It's never been higher than 94 here in all the years this house has been in our family, it also hit 94 in July 2011. I think there was a 95 back in 1954 and the only time it's been hotter than that was the torrid 3 day stretch of 98, 99 and 103 in early July 1911.
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Interesting same years appear on these lists 1988, 1993, 2010 and 2022. I would put 1993 and 2010 above all the rest region wide. Tony do you have a list for highest number of 80 and 85 degree highs too for the three airports and the park too?
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To be fair those cold summers were godawful too. I particularly remember the Pinatubo summer of 1992. I was in the Poconos that summer too and it was in the 40s here in late June and raining all the time. I remember 1996 differently since I was on Long Island most of that summer it was extremely humid even though not hot and that made it much worse than if it were hot and less humid. I actually remember blacking out one day in June 1996 when it was overcast 82 degrees with a dew point of 82 100% humidity. My most hated kind of weather.
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Today was godawful. Low to mid 60s windy with rain and ugly dark skies all day. This weather belongs in October not August. How much do we need to accelerate climate change to make sure today's weather never happens in summer ever again?
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Apparently it was completely clear last night but I was too tired to stay up and look. I wonder what the rate would have been two nights after peak? The Perseids drop off rapidly after peak and I've never tried to look two nights after the peak.
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That's why I've been wondering if the el nino really becomes historic if the bake off summer will be in 2028 rather than 2027. This one might be more like 1998 rather than 1983.
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I cant help but think this is nature's way of dealing with climate change. In an ironic twist more smoke from wildfires, more flooding rains and more of a sea breeze at the coast have all resulted in less extensive and sustained coast to coast extreme heat than what we observed during the 80s and 90s in the specific years I outlined above. Do you think the planet has a heat ceiling that is close to being reached during the summer beyond which it physically can't get any hotter? The slower rise of temperatures in the summer hint at this while winter and other seasons warm faster. Also faster warming rates the farther north you go where the heat ceiling is higher even in summer. I think we'll eventually approach heat entropy when the temperature difference between the poles and the tropics is lower than it's ever been before.
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1988 had such an incredible hot summer, this is an example of what I mean when I say the heat was much more extensive and longer lasting in the 80s and 90s in the summer than it is now. This has nothing to do with Central Park foliage issues this was literally coast to coast heat that lasted the entire summer. Other examples include 1980, 1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002. By the way in yesterday's post you mentioned that Boston's all time August high of 101 happened in 2002?
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
John it might be a black hole for humans but it will be a Renaissance for the planet as with far fewer humans the planet will be much better off. I'm also not sure it will be a black hole for humanity because we will colonize space and leave this planet. Also it's an interesting analogy for a strictly scientific reason, black holes represent peak entropy in the universe and climate change reduces the differences between the poles and the tropics which also leads to peak entropy on our planet. And black holes might not be the end but only the beginning as several theories point to black holes being the birth place of new universes. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LibertyBell replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The thing I dislike about el ninos is they produce a dulling of extremes, cooler summers and warmer winters. Hotter summers and colder winters are much more interesting. Maybe in the future when we learn to control the weather we will figure out how to prevent these kinds of el ninos from happening. I envision gigantic underwater structures that control ocean currents. Until then i will just be happy knowing that the summers after El Nino are much hotter and drier. -
The Midwest is drowning in flooding right now. Excessive rainfall is far worse than drought. Once this unwanted el nino is finished I fully expect we will return to our dry pattern and next summer should be both hot and dry. My targets for JFK for next summer are 30 plus 90 degree days, 10 plus 95 degree days and 3 to 5 100 degree days.
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Nothing last night the sky was always more than 50 percent cloud covered and there were only a few stars to be seen even in the small clear patches I think there was smoke in the air because the sky had an unnatural orange color and was bright as if the moon was causing it.
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LGA is much more polluted by artificial human structures as is Newark. You can see that with the artificially elevated mins at LGA and EWR was hotter even back in the 1990s. NYC and JFK give the most natural experience what the temperatures would be like without human engineering of the landscape. The 1990s were definitely hotter in terms of 90 degree days and length of heat waves.
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The landscape had that strange dusky orangeish color between 1 and 2 pm which surprised me because we were nowhere near the total eclipse area we only had 9 percent coverage. I didn't take any pictures of it or the Perseids because we were in and out of clouds but the view through my new 2x54 constellation binoculars felt like looking at an astroimage live!
