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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    Thanks, do you think we'll warm up into early March or keep this pattern? I think it was ANT, who posted the CFS which showed cold weather for the first half of March?
  2. LibertyBell
    Looks like the projected midmonth pattern change will coincide with a major SSW which will have its greatest impact in early to mid March, so the cold pattern might stick around for awhile?
  3. LibertyBell
    Have you read the material in the main forum about the Major SSW and the thinking being that the cold period will extend well into March because of it?
  4. LibertyBell
    A met in our subforum seems to think next winter may be neutral because he thinks the el nino staying strong later means there's a chance it might not become a la nina next winter.
  5. LibertyBell
    We can hope for either a 1995-96 or 2010-11 (or combo lol) Was 1966-67 cold neutral? That would be a nice analog since 1965-66 is getting compared to this winter.
  6. LibertyBell
    a very hot and dry summer followed by a cold and snowy winter is what usually happens when a strong el nino transitions to a la nina, those are my favorite combos. I loved 2010 and I'm hoping for a repeat.
  7. LibertyBell
    I've been reading that the CFS came in with a forecast for a cold first half of March too, all connected to that major SSW projected for mid month.
  8. LibertyBell
    and this is why I'm gungho about next winter even if it is a la nina, la ninas after el ninos do very well around here and 1966-67 was a very good winter (it wasn't a la nina but it was close to being one, and we have several other la ninas after el ninos that did really well here.) I also believe the upcoming summer will be very hot and drier than normal, which also happens after big el ninos. I love that combo!
  9. LibertyBell
    There's a chance this SSW extends that into the first half of March.
  10. LibertyBell
    They can keep that there.
  11. LibertyBell
    This is why it's being reported that the 1.5C threshold has been breached.
  12. LibertyBell
    a weak or even moderate la nina next winter after the el nino of this winter would be very good for snowfall, neutral not so much
  13. LibertyBell
    and you can have a dry month but with more snowfall than normal. 10 inches of snowfall is typically about 1 inch of rain. So if you have a month where half the precip is rain and half is snow, and a total of 2" liquid equivalent, that's 10" of snow and 1" of rain and it's a snowy month that's also drier than normal.
  14. LibertyBell
    Rodents are cuter than algorithms ;-) and algorithms are addictive lol
  15. LibertyBell
    hundreds of years from now, if humanity still exists, we'll be an interstellar species. Progress is logarithmic. Have a look at this blueprint, we've already achieved some of these goals. https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/research-and-technology/fusion-energy-and-iter_en#the-road-to-fusion A study on the benefits of broader approach activities under the current agreement and the expected benefits of continued participation was published in May 2021. Major achievements include the design and construction of JT-60SA, the world’s largest tokamak. On 23 October 2023, JT-60SA began operation, achieving a tokamak plasma for the first time.
  16. LibertyBell
    It makes sense since they are somewhat inland. Do you have elevation data on them? I think they're in the piedmont, so not at sea level but not highly elevated either?
  17. LibertyBell
    I remember the Carolina snowstorm in January 2002, they got a big one while we were snowless. Then again there are several winters in there when they did well AND we did well too-- 1995-96 sticks out in that regard, as do later winters in the 00s.
  18. LibertyBell
    Look at all those big ones in the 80s for them lol-- also, January 2000 really sticks out, looks like that was their GOAT snowstorm? I remember the Carolina snowstorm in January 2002, they got a big one while we were snowless. Then again there are several winters in there when they did well AND we did well too-- 1995-96 sticks out in that regard, as do later winters in the 00s.
  19. LibertyBell
    Hey that would work.....
  20. LibertyBell
    Do you mean for any season or for a good season? I'd agree with Walt here, a widespread 6"+ storm for the megalopolis would be considered a major snowstorm this season.
  21. LibertyBell
    Until it happens we won't know it happened. The encouraging thing is, at least the models aren't kicking it down the road as of now.
  22. LibertyBell
    Right, but if one had to make a prediction, the safest one to make (whatever the storm track is, north or south), that elevated areas are most likely to do best.
  23. LibertyBell
    I think it's a safe bet, either way, that areas with elevation will do best. Coastal areas are not the place to be for snowfall lately.
  24. LibertyBell
    That 1996 arctic outbreak is extremely underrated, so many people remember the Jan 1996 blizzard and then the extreme January thaw and flooding we had after that, but the comeback to winter weather by early February was historic too.
  25. LibertyBell
    Yes, right now I'm thinking if the storm track is that far south, the mountains would most likely be favored. Elevation seems to do better no matter what the pattern, so that's a safe bet to make.
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