LibertyBell

anyone who says the models are never wrong is in denial, they have been wrong plenty. But if you can't admit when they are wrong, you're not going to be open to help fix them either.

no one anywhere called for an HECS but many were calling for a significant storm at least, including well respected Cornell graduating meteorologist on our major networks.

it's not just one storm it's been the entire season and it's been happening for several years now as Chris pointed out. As met fan said the models should not be run past 5 days or at the very least don't make them accessible to the public after 5 days. Meteorology isn't an exact science.

la ninas have become more common haven't they? that explains why New England remains more resistant to snowfall decline but doesn't explain what's been going on down south this season.

The question is what changed so greatly between 2017-18 and 2018-19? Was that when the marine heatwaves in the West Pacific began or just when they reached the threshold to cause the Pacific jet to interfere with the spacing of shortwaves?

The single greatest predictor of the weather is...... persistence. Unless something game changing happens, expect more of the same.

it's born out of being cautious and models failing multiple times. You've seen the bipolar attitude on this forum, it's safer not to trust anything you see until it's within the *certain* range.

But having none at all work out for 3+ years and you understand why people are tuning everything out. At this point, nothing can be trusted until it's within 48 hours.

all the most extreme changes are positive none are negative?

From the assessments this looks to be a Tunguska sized event, so not an ELE but it can be pretty dangerous if it hits a populated area.

Those things have caused megatsunamis in the past, read about how Chesapeake Bay was formed....

Not as cold as it has been though. 40s with sunshine are pretty tolerable right now. Might even hit 50s a few times.

1990 and 1991 were two of our hottest years on record with 22 out of 24 above normal months, there was also a solar max around then.

Is Ryan Maue a protege of JB?

it's the dark blue area in the upper right of that map, maybe just north of Japan-- Kamchatka Peninsula?

Indeed, I have been saying this for months lol. 88-89 is one example.

Was this the famous Norfolk and Atlantic City snowstorm that was a big bust up here, Tony? 1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

haha it's going to be in the mid 40s with sunshine on Sunday

Yeah okay meanwhile we will have zero precip for at least the next 7+ days and milder weather starting Sunday and continuing into next week

it's not getting pushed back, forget the GFS

looks like warmer weather 45 degrees finally gets here by Sunday the 23rd and possibly 50 by next Tuesday? Best part is it will be sunny!

Yes to see that in a la nina might mean we are turning a corner. It's like how 2000-01 was an indication of snowier winters to come (even though we took a temporary step back in 2001-02.)

Yes, the higher variability and the extremes are because of CC. Higher precip storms too (intermingled with periods of less precip-- like our 0 rainfall in October and dry January.) Another thing to look at are cycles of wetter periods followed by drier periods.

it seems like less snowy seasons come after periods of high snowfall 1955-56 to 1968-69 were snowy, 1969-70 to 1975-76 were not snowy, 1976-77 to 1978-79 were snowy, 1979-80 to 1991-92 were not snowy, 1992-93 to 1995-96 were snowy, 1996-97 to 1999-2000 were not snowy, 2000-01 to 2005-06 were snowy, 2006-07 to 2008-09 were not snowy, 2009-10 to 2017-18 were snowy, 2018-19 to 2024-25 not snowy. Obviously there were some mixed periods in there too, but predominantly these thing go in patterns snowy and not snowy.

That's music for our ears, it could be like the early 2010s with the solar min and the better Pacific.