Wurbus
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There is some agreement with the GEFS and Euro AI on the 27-28th storm
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Anyone know how accurate the Euro AI model has been in the long range? It's been showing something on the 27-28th for a few runs in row now.
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Also, that is one hell of a fantasy storm for the SE on the GFS at the end of the month. Crushes everyone except TN so it's plausible.
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Knoxville is warmer than most of Florida this evening. Looking at a temp map is gross right now.
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round 2 incoming.....
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Early Friday Happy Hour!
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Canadian has it as well about a day later
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Even the SREF plumes backed off at 3pm for East TN compared to 9am. At 9am we probably had around 10 plumes showing a decent snowfall for Knoxville. Now, there are only 2 showing a good snowfall. I'm still hoping a miracle can happen, but trends definitely are not looking good (shocking I know).
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I know the Canadian typically overdoes the cold, but that is some cold air early next week. Lows close to 0 and feels like in the -10s.....brrr.
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I'm not too enthused with the upcoming wave on Wednesday night/Thursday morning for Knox county. We might see some flurries/light snow, but I doubt we will get anything more than a dusting. Hopefully NE TN gets a little more from it. The weekend system could be interesting because of the potential for high ratio snows with how cold the models are showing, but we still have a ways to go for that system.
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Euro also has the system on the 18th for East TN at least.
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Full Canadian run is more for East TN as wekk and still snowing in East TN at the end. GFS also has a good hit for East TN around the same timeframe!
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Haven't had too much to comment on lately, but let's just lock that happy hour run in and take our chances with multiple waves.
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I wound up with about a tenth of an inch in Knoxville. We had a band come through around 7pm last night that dropped that. Other than that, had a few off and on show showers throughout the day with sun mixed in between. Great early November treat to start off the season!
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I'm limiting my expectations for this one in Knoxville, but seeing light snow/flurries in the air this early in November is a huge win. If I get a dusting, I'd be happy! Not looking bad at all for plateau, NE TN, & the mountains.
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I wound up having 3 storms roll over my house and got 3.12" yesterday. That is more than I received during the entire month of June (2.72"). My yard was starting to bake in the Summer heat but this should help it out for at least a week.
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It's far out there and probably won't happen, but happy hour delivered for East TN, NC, & VA.
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Way out there, but 12z GFS has snow along the gulf coast in early March. That would be impressive! Adding to an already historic winter there.
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I wound up with about 1.5" here in Knoxville. Roads are mostly fine, but could be a mess late tonight and early morning if moisture is still lingering. Also wanted to mention if you look at the US winter map warnings, there is extreme cold warnings down all the way from Manitoba to southern TX, except for southern half of South Dakota. Kind of odd they didn't issue any there, similar to the Chattanooga area not receiving a WWA until this morning.
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Yeah. Someone mentioned earlier about all of the bad signals for East TN and I agree. These types of systems typically just don't perform well here.
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Don't look at the 9pm plumes for Knoxville. Mean cut in half to .2 qpf
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Just took a look at the SREF's and ,unsurprisingly, it appears the greater valley has mixing issues. Not 100% sure it will happen, but it does happen as energy transfers around here quite a bit.
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Look at it this way.....The CMC is due to be right once.
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I wound up with 3.1" the past 2 days. Was a weird event because it basically rained for 48 hours straight, but it was mostly light-moderate rain. The highest rate I had was only .38" an hour.
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Euro AI has it as well. Warm nose straight up the Eastern valley while everyone around us looks to be snowing.
