Wurbus
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Everything posted by Wurbus
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Finally seeing the first flurries here in the Cedar Bluff/Karns area in Knoxville. Temp at 28 and dewpoint at 18.
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I know everyone is focused on the current storm, but that was an absolute banger of a 6z GFS run.
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My temp drop seems to have leveled off around 23. DP still quite low though.
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Slight uptick on the snow average on the plumes across most of East TN. Generally about .2-.5 increase compared to 9z. I think most of that is due to slightly less mixing.
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ICON hammered the valley
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What is the difference between the ARW & NSSL on the HRW model? NSSL does have some WAA entering the valley toward the end of the run.
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Looks like snow means increased for most everyone compared to 15z on the SREF plumes. Closer to what they were at 9z this morning.
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Highs were in the 40's and 50's leading up to the event last year in Knoxville. Lows were in the uppers 20's or low 30's mostly.
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I noticed the 3pm plumes also came down about an inch average for KNX and Chattanooga decreased a fair amount as well.
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GEFS mean remains beefy, but the biggest amounts shifted from Chattanooga area to Arkansas and Memphis.
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Did the 0z CMC run? I don't see it available on pivotal or tropical tidbits.
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Let's all agree to toss it.
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Looks like some mixing issues or an energy transfer issue for the East.
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How was the 18z Euro?
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MRX posted this on Twitter about an hour ago.
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Let's hope the ICON leads the charge into a Happy Hour to remember!
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Still some lingering flurries in the east, but much beefier on that pass!
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18z ICON looks much healthier across the state
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The ECWF-AI had about .3-.4" of QPF for the whole state. Extreme southern counties were around .5".
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Like John said, it kinda falls apart over our area, but that turns into a monster for parts of the NE. 2'-3' of snow for parts of New Jersey and NYC. 969 low sitting just off the coast before it goes to sea.
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ICON has a light snow event across the state as it falls apart.
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Waking up to 0z Euro finally getting on board and a beautiful 6z GFS run!
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Someone in the Southeast forum posted the 3-4 week Outlook from the NWS and I thought it would be relevant to post here as well.
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Just missed the phase on this run and energy is being held back in the SW on the system around the 10th
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Let's just lock this look in for the next week.
