Wurbus

I'm near Karns, and my God it is absolutely ripping. I have to be closing in on a foot. For reference, the tops of these 2 bottles are wine bottles....

Looks like the Ukie finally came around. Shows .9 QPF and 9 inches of snow for KNX

Looks like almost all the models are showing the heaviest band to setup just south of Knoxville. Through Monroe, Blount, & Sevier counties. Still looks great for most everyone though.

I wonder if the Ukie still has some mixing issues. It shows .9 QPF for KNX, but only 4" of snow

CMC has over half an inch of ice for the 2nd system around the 19th followed by some extremely cold air. Hopefully, that doesn't pan out. That would likely be on top of several inches of snow from the 1st system.

GFS totals are going to also be very similar to RGEM & ICON.

ICON going to look similar to RGEM I believe

LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 Key Messages: 1. Probability for an accumulating snow Monday into Tuesday is increasing. Differences in amounts are still significant, however. 2. Very cold temperatures in the wake of the potential snow. Single digit temperatures and near or subzero wind chill possible Wednesday morning. 3. Additional wintry system possible late next week, details highly uncertain. Discussion: A rather uneventful start to the period, other than the weather will be cold with a biting wind. The awkward bit is Sunday will be one of the warmer days of the week. A strong jet streak will pass to our north on Monday heading into the Mid-Atlantic, and below that isentropic lift will draw moisture northeastwards into East Tennessee and southwest Virginia. Guidance seems pretty consistent in showing thermal profiles very favorable for snow, with temperatures throughout the vertical profiles being supportive of an all snow event. The biggest question continues to be how much QPF we see. 12z Euro shifted more towards the GFS today, with the GFS still being aggressive with QPF, and thus snowfall. With us stepping closer in time, ensemble probabilities of accumulating snowfall are increasing, a good sign for snow lovers. Sunrise Monday will probably be dry, with perhaps some virga visible from the clouds as the lower levels of the atmosphere are modeled to be quite dry. Caution will be to not let this fool you, as once the atmosphere can saturate, snow will be able to begin falling to the surface daytime on Monday. With cold temperatures Sunday night, any marginal daytime high on Monday should give way to subfreezing temperatures. Apart from still substantial QPF differences within the guidance, one of the components will be how long the snow persists into Tuesday, with the most recent guidance keeping snow showers into early Tuesday morning. Past the snow, the big headline will be the frigid temperatures moving in. Both the Euro and GFS are modeling H85 temperatures below the 10th percentile from Nashville sounding climatology Wednesday morning in association with the passage of an upper trough. With the influence of the snowpack, ultimate low temperatures will be dependent on snow cover and cloud cover, with potential for single digit lows. Factoring in any level of a breeze, and wind chills can be knocked even lower, closer to zero in the valley. We`ll enter a slight warmup getting back above freezing on Thursday, but an approaching trough in the long range guidance signals another bout of both troublesome precipitation and another shot of severe cold.

18z NAM seemed slower and setup the main band through west TN, north Nashville, & into Kentucky. Precip doesn't even make it to East TN by the end of the run.

Just had some thunder in knox county

This is for TYS, but I think we all know which one is member 7

Crazy uncle takes a better track with the low through the panhandle and southern GA and has more snow than GFS on the back end. Knoxville is going to wind up with over 14" on the Kuchera map

Canadian looks pretty similar to the GFS so far on the snow totals through 90

GFS holding serve so far through 84. The precip field looked a little stronger to me compared to 06z.

There was one SREF Plume that gave Memphis 17" this morning

I feel like Carver knew what was upcoming on the models and went to bed early to avoid the heartache

CMC hammers West TN (Especially NW TN) before the low forms in southern GA and then moves out to sea. Mid TN gets 1-3" and nada for East TN on that run.

I think it is more that it is following the Euro trend of holding the energy back and popping a low off the coast. More of a potential boom or bust scenario for us in east TN I believe.

Just had a flizzard and strong winds with that small cell in Karns. Wind was just ripping outside.

That was one of the most insane temp runs I've ever seen. We are talking about -30 to -50 departure from normal temps for an entire week for the whole state of TN. If it does indeed snow before, it isn't going anywhere for a long while.

I'm going to need to get my gas fireplace fixed just incase if this happens

Sheesh....-10 to -20 temps in middle TN after the system moves through

Happy Hour delivers!

I hit 19 at my house in Knoxville. I got below freezing the 1st 4 days of November and the last 4 days of November. Everything in between was above freezing.