Wurbus

Woke up in the middle of the night to that 00z disaster. Feels like we are the Falcons and was just up 28-3 at halftime in the Super Bowl......

GFS has Knoxville at -19 degrees Tuesday morning and Atlanta around -15

Icon did tick north a bit. Still major storm though

If they are sampling tomorrow, it probably wouldn't get injested until 18z? Even if they sample at 8am pst, 12z GFS is already rolling by then.

I just told my wife that being a snow lover in East TN is the equivalent of being a Bills fan. It's just constant disappointment every year.

I never thought goofy would top the 06z run but here we are. Check please!

GFS is going to rival its 06z run it looks like

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 122 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1258 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 - Confidence in a significant winter storm affecting the southern Appalachian region Saturday into Sunday is increasing. However, it must be stressed that details on where the axis of heaviest precipitation and resulting wintry precip totals remain unclear. This weekend`s system should be monitored closely over the next couple of days. - Cold air behind this weekend`s storm will keep temperatures at/below freezing for at least a day or two. This will prolong the effects of any winter weather, with power outages possible as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 Confidence continues to increase with regards to the potential for a high impact winter weather event affecting the southeast United States this weekend. As such, I`ll devote nearly the entirety of the forecast discussion to that event. Strong, deep troughing will remain over much of the central and eastern CONUS over the next several days, with quasi-zonal flow in place across the Gulf coast. One impulse embedded in the upper trough will drag a cold front into the region Wed night into Thu with some light rain expected across the forecast area. Afterwards a strong +1050mb surface high will drop out of Canada into the northern plains on Friday, reinforcing the front across the region and leading to some additional light precip on Friday possibly. However the main show is Saturday into Sunday. A very strong jet over the Ohio valley into the northeast, coupled with an upper low ejecting east from southern California, will result in widespread moderate to heavy precipitation across Tennessee and the surrounding areas. Timing wise, models agree fairly well on the bulk of the precipitation starting around daybreak Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning before tapering off Sun afternoon. Where there is still significant disagreement, revolves around precip types and amounts. Some guidance indicates a warm nose pushing north to the I-40 corridor while other guidance keeps it south of the Tennessee/Georgia border. The former would support significant icing in the south while central and northern areas get a significant snowfall event. The latter would support snow everywhere, with lighter totals further north and heavier amounts along and slightly south of the I-40 corridor. At this point in time, it`s difficult to tell which scenario is more likely to play out. What is pretty clear though is that a highly impactful winter weather event seems set to play out across the southern Appalachian region Sat and Sun. Regarding totals and precip types, it is worth noting that PWAT values for this event are well above climatological averages. That`s significant since it`s more likely to see unseasonably high PWATs in warm, heavy rain events versus cold winter weather events. Given the thermal profiles snow ratios aren`t going to be crazy high, so I would expect the snow to be a heavier/wetter type. This coupled with the potential of some icing somewhere means that power outages will be a distinct possibility. Lastly, whatever falls on Sat/Sun isn`t going anywhere in quick fashion. Temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday are going to be quite cold and I undercut NBM guidance a bit on Sun/Mon to account for temperatures being impacted by whatever snowpack is present.

Any other system I'd cash out now, but given what we have seen the past few days on the models I don't want the ice cutting into our precious totals!

Looks like Knoxville already has around 8" at 10:1 ratio before it starts to turn to sleet/ice. I vote we go back to the trends yesterday lol

2-3" of QPF for all of East TN on that CMC run

GFS also has that High dive straight down into the panhandle of TX and it is sitting at 1047 at 150 lol

CMC is colder through 96

CMC looks better on the baja low connection that GFS. We'll see if it goes full ice mode like it has the last couple of runs

Hard to buy anything this model is putting out right now for me

At least ice won't be an issue

Not as much interaction with the baja low and I think it's going to leave it off the coast of Mexico again. This model.....

Is the GFS leaving that baja low behind again?

Sorry to hear Scottie!! Everything will work out!

Just woke up to those monster 6z runs.....insane! Not sure if anyone has mentioned GEFS yet, but looks like most of the forum has a mean of 10-12" 5 days out!

Temps looked better on the AIGFS to me as well.

GEFS has beefy snow mean for East TN. 8-10" from Knox to tri cities.

Nevermind. Gets warm and gives most of us freezing rain and sleet

Ukie looking good so far

It might be following more climatology since that is what usually happens?