Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Oh wow
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Base off the 12z Euro, I could see Washington County, MD and parts of the WV panhandle get added to the watch.
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Amazing trends at 500mb. Clearly closed, neutrally tilted mid level low.
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From a WPC met:
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12z GEFS mean liquid equivalent is 1"+ from I-95 east, 0.75" line back to Hagerstown, 0.5" line back to Oakland.
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Looks like the 12z GEFS again shifted west, much closer to Ocean City, appears any easterly outliers are gone.
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I would still trust the global guidance until 00z tonight. After that, I'd put more weights on the mesos.
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Looks like WPC probabilities of 6"+ are 50% for inside the DC Beltway, 70% further north into Annapolis and most of Baltimore metro.
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It's a Miller B, in DC, in LA Nina, at the end of February. Those are heart breakers 9 out of 10 times, yet we're still going to get snow. Where do I sign?
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Literally issued as I typed that.
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Wild that Calvert and St. Mary's counties have a winter storm watch but DC doesn't. EDIT: not anymore!
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00z GEFS mean snow is 6"-10" east of US 15.
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Let's go for broke. 12"+ east of I-81. Just do it. Go out with a bang.
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To be a fly on the wall at WPC, CTP, PHI, LWX, and OKX right now.
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Yes. Absolutely a move to the GFS.
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From the Philly subforum. Legit F O L K S
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Even if you cut the Kurhcera snowfall map down by 60% on the 00z GFS, it's still an impactful warning level event.
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One the 00z GFS the surface temps are marginal to start, but once we get to late afternoon things crank up fast and everyone gets between 29-32 degrees and it's ripping snow at night. Perfect.
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$20 says once the 00z Euro comes out the watches are expanded everywhere
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00z GFS 988 low tucked just east of Ocean City, MD at 00z Monday!
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This is why I always harp over the importance of a pronounced western ridge. Even in a marginal pattern, it can save you. It's improved incrementally almost every run on every model.
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This is the kind of storm that significantly impacts the power lines and trees while it struggles to accumulate on the roads.
