Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Yes, THAT is how we win and its inside an established pattern. Not a wave breaking into something as we're setting up. Really would like to see at least a slightly -NAO to help lock in our cold air though.
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37 for the low. Another weak sauce cool shot.
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High is in a bad spot. Southeast winds just eroding the cad.
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Several gusts near 40 mph from Garrett County east through the immediate DC/Baltimore suburbs.
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^that would give everyone north and west of I-95 close to December climo snowfall
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Randy lives in the real world.
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Hopefully we don't get above 55 degrees all winter. There is something deeply unwholesome about 70 degrees in the middle of winter.
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Full climo for the month and we reinvigorate the December 5th Rule. Sold.
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Bittinger and Frostburg mesonet sites showing a flip to westerly winds. Looks like the front is starting to crest the Eastern Continential Divide. Here's hoping we don't torch into the 70s prefrontal.
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12z GFS really tries to see something up around the 5th, 8th, and 10th. If we can't score at least climo snowfall then we'll need a regional exorcism.
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RSTM2 COOP site: M0.47" overnight M1.63" November to date. Glad to see additional precip. Our aquifers need it.
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My benchmark is 1" - 3" that doesn't get washed away. Would get us to December climo.
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12z GFS has a much better CAD signature compared to its 00z/06z iterations.
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We still have a week to find our fail point. Could be any of the following: 1.) High slides offshore and we nibble away at CAD with antecedent southeast winds. 2.) Last minute de-amplification trend. 3.) Primary drives into Pittsburgh and it's just cold rain.
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Good luck. We're all praying you two have the mojo this winter.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The 00z GFS/UKMET/Euro and 06z GFS/GEFS would get most of this subforum to climo snowfall for December by December 5th. Very impressive. -
I could hear that all the way in Gaithersburg.
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The Canadian high on the 06z Euro is a tad east for my liking. That setup can erode the CAD situation with prolonged southeast winds. Would like to see that backed up further west into the St. Lawrence River Valley.
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It's La Nina...the odds of the big ones aren't on our side. I'd be happy with several light to moderate events that yield snow-on-snow.
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100% agreed. I do not get excited for acute threats until we're inside D3 anymore.
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Honestly that's pretty impressive. If that mean output would be anywhere close to verifying then many of us would have exceeded monthly snowfall climo by mid month. Yes please! I would be very, very happy to eat crow and see snow falling.
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Give the lowlands their due. They always deserve to score.
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Ray's Winter Storm Archive, while focused primarily on New Jersey, is an excellent resource for winter storms during the 1993 - 2013 time frame.
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Now that would make me eat my words. Huge ridge out west with some increasing heights in the NAO domain.
