Daniel Boone

'60's had quite a bit of -PDO -NAO dominate Winters. Interesting to see what you come up with regarding '66 John.

It ruled the roost here irt snowfall forecast last season. However, that was at much closer range.

Merry Christmas to all !!!

When did they do that outlook ? Before todays guidance and subsequent huge changes ? Could be, they're cautious even if written afterward until the writing begins to show on the wall. So many headfakes it's hard to blame them really, and I'm not a fan of CPC.

Sorry to hear of the health issue Jax. I pray for a speedy recovery. Merry Christmas to you and yours !

Sad but true ! Maybe we luck n2 a 1972 or '75 type Feb.

With all the destruction with the recent severe outbreak, lets hope we don't deal with more severe, although wouldn't be surprising. Anytime you have extreme warmth in Winter, that's one of the drawbacks or in many cases, price to pay. Anytime there's a clash in distinct opposite airmasses,regardless of what time of year, that's always a threat. I love wx action in any form for the most part but, even if Severe was my only liking, I'd bite the bullet and pray or hope against it now.

Carvers, that's what our thoughts have been, once that block is realized. Maybe, some of the younger crowd will take note. As you and a couple other Veterans have basically preached; Models are not good with blocking and generally(although,not always as we've saw in recent years with a SER,-NAO connect)adjust as they are more realized in range. Happens more times than not.

Good post and work Chuck !

You'd think those SSTs there would be cooled enuff from all the tcs there recently that development there would cease, or at least weaken their strength if they move thru there. Confounded area! Lol

We do need at least a shift with the Aleutian ridge. If the -NAO can help shove that GOM/SE Ridge west n2 the SW, think things will be much better. NW to SE moving Jet with embedded Shtwvs. Several -pdo/nina winters featured that setup.

I'm not a fan either. Although a weak one as well as weak Nino tend to avg out as our best snow/cold winters. I don't like a strong -PDO Lanina combo. However, my statement on the - NAO has proven to be true time and time again. Models do underestimate its affect much of the time. Hopefully, same case this time.

Yeah. However, on the plus side, Models tend to underestimate the effects of the -NAO So, things may actually look up faster than expected.

They are rather confused, lol

Exactly. Makes sense. If we can get that Neg. NAO AO Combo over the top connection to it, I think we'll be in business.

Definitely what to hope for brother !

'71-72 and 74-75 have been coming to my mind lately. 98-99 was actually similar to those although at least there was a 4-6" Snowfall Dec. 30, 98. 71-72 had an arctic outbreak in February with a coastal developing on its heels dumping a major snowfall from our area NEward. 74-75 only had 1 decent snowfall in lower eles. That being in March .( 5" in Pennington gap). There were a couple Snowstorms east of the Apps from Coastals in Feb...As I remember, Asheville did quite well with those. Also of note, March '99 produced about 6" in Pennington gap from 2 events. So, may be some late action this year IF follows similar path. Tbh, hopefully not. If the MJO can make it to 8 then cod. I think this one should fair better.

Good stuff! 95-96 featured those se moving storms that were miller A/B hybrids. Man, those can really hammer us !

To add some enlightment to that. For NOAA/CPC to put EC over us is a great sign. Hard for them to do that even without La nina. If the block is formidable during January and we get the MJO go slowly thru cold phases, that ec will be bn and possibly encompass areas further east as well. As we all know, even if Canada were to go milder than avg. that air funneled down here would still be cold for us. Even the sour winter of 2001-02 featured the right setup in early Jan and Canada was very mild. We still received a significant snowfall during that in much of the area. Just thought I'd throw that out there to strengthen the positive about the likely looking 500 mb pattern. Not saying Canada goes mild but that has been known to happen . Doesn't look likely this time though. I agree with Carvers totally in that IF that Pattern continues to be advertised, Models will adjust colder.

Was looking at that earlier. Looking interesting in the near future.

With all the convection within the 6-7 area, it is possible for a pattern reflecting a 6 to 7. Hopefully, the HLB is being instigated thru other dynamics and counters the MJO until when or if it goes cold phases. We can still get snow with enuff blocking regardless.

Yeah, I remember that tucking too. Rather odd but yeah, can happen. Seems oddities have happened moreso in recent years. Reminds me of the QBO antics couple years ago.

Misinterpreted ur earlier post irt Grit. Yeah, if that happens with MJO and HLB in place. Just Wow !

Grit is east of Mountains. They had a basically snowless winter last year. Granted, this year may be a dud this side of apps too but, may also be similar to last, if so Grit etal will look good I guess for east of Apps.

My 2 cents. Again, last Winter was -PDO and La nina. How often was MJO in cold phases ? HLB was prevalent. I recorded 29.3 " snow here. Canada wasn't near as cold as it looks to be this Winter. So, regardless of who or what says no snow with a -PDO LA nina Combo without favourable MJO. Formidable HLB ftw !