Jump to content

Daniel Boone

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,846

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Many times over the years Noaa/CPC broadbrushed Nino Winters with average Nino Climatology.
  2. Daniel Boone
    If that is indeed the Case for this Winter, you've hit on the probable Reason.. at least from what we can logically see. Formidable upstream blocking will still mitigate the -PDO effects if it does rear up, providing HLB is present.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Won't you just love it snowman if we get strong blocking and wind up colder and snowier than you want ala, 1968-69.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Interestingly, the upper South (SWVA/ETN mainly) recorded a major Snowfall in November 1951., 15-20". That was lower elevation Totals , btw. Rather out of Character for an RNA Nino and November. Also, the other -PNA Avg Winters you listed were good Snowfall wise in these areas as well. The worst falls in the+PNA Winter's listed with 94-95 and 53-54 being paltry.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Exactly what I was thinking. Looks almost opposite of what it should in much of the lower 48. Maybe the Countries that stand to gain financially from the Climate agenda had some influence on those Models.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, looks to probably be a close to normal Winter temp wise in the SE , depending on whether HLB is dominate or not , below average if so. Snowfall around avg.. Above with HLB. That was my early opinion on Winter. After reading some of the posts here with probable outcomes with historical backing, I had started to lean maybe colder but, it does appear the Pac Jet will once again be strong. There is some correlation to a cold pool off Newfoundland and more sustainable 50-50 lp and a - NAO. That pool has developed in that area. Would like to see it strengthen and expand somewhat. Maybe we'll get favorable MJO and HLB in conjunction at times that'll offset a strong canonical Nino Pattern. Just an opinion from my rusty, antique mind so, disclaimer galore.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Don't you just love the pick and choosers.. They have several Model's to use but, instead of at least coming up with an avg. of all, they pick what goes along with either what they want or think will be right, lol. Eric appears to be one of those.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Amazing at how much of the US is so dry. Hopefully, the STJ will become more active and propagate northward. A good soaking across the deep South from a rather rogue non named system in the northern Gulf. Hopefully, we see more of these that pull further north.
  9. Daniel Boone
    I see something of interest has developed on the Atlantic side. Cold pool off Newfoundland. Hopefully, it'll continue to cool.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Looks good.
  11. Daniel Boone
    In my reply to your Outlook, I mentioned your Outlook looks similar to 72-73 and 82-83 . The Snowfall outlook looks more like 72-73 in the East. I gave my thoughts there. No need to rehash. UKMET latest outlook looks about what I'm thinking. Normal to above Snowfall should encompass a broader area in the East than your map indicates imo. at least up to the lower MA or MD Line. MJO looks favorable much of the time for theses areas.
  12. Daniel Boone
    I envisioned a similar setup when stewing over everything that influences the Winter pattern a couple weeks back. Since being a rusty Relic now, I just can't delve into the work, coming up with maps, graphs etc. Kudo's on the Work you put into the Outlook. The Outlook looks alot like a blend of 72-73 and 82-83. Snowfall looks more like 72-3 as 82-83 normal to above encompassed a larger area of which included the upper South and portions of the MA. I lean more of an 82-83 but, not quite the extreme Eastern warmth as that Winter featured in December. I think there'll be periods of decent blocking and the MJO looks to be favorable for at least the lower MA and SE a good bit of the Season. Just my 2 cents coming from a mind of antiquity.
  13. Daniel Boone
    My sentiments to a T Jeff, lol. It's actually beginning to get under my skin how it just keeps happening. Anguish ! Lol.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Good post and excellent points on your part too man !
  15. Daniel Boone
    Totally agree !
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yes, they were. Thanksgiving 1971. 8 inches at my house. I remember it melted rather quickly and sliding off the roof in big sheets. Heavy and wet.
  17. Daniel Boone
    I know in recent years October snow has been an omen for the Winter. That wasn't always the case in the Past. October 1977 comes to mind as measurable Snow was recorded throughout this Area on the 13th. That went in to be a long, cold snowy Winter.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Brings to mind the strong '82-83 Nino. Very warm December but, basically average to slightly above average seasonal Snowfall . Oddly, even though December was much above normal we managed a major 6"+ Snowfall and a minor 1-3" deal just 4 days before the record warm Christmas here in SW Virginia.
  19. Daniel Boone
    I see we have the battle between the warministas, the JB Jack froster's and the rationale's. Which will come out on top when all is said and done .... stay tuned for updates.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Same instance around here. 37 at my house at 1721 ft. 32 at the Airport (k0vg) at 1411 ft.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Good Winter here as well. 32.4" Season Snowfall.
  22. Daniel Boone
    I agree totally with you Carver. I was just listing the fear of said outcome. Even the super Strong Ninos of 82-83 and 97-98 featured some major Snow Storms in our area. The PDO is the biggest concern I believe as an east based Nino doesn't appear to be a problem now . '09-10 however, had a -PDO(not as pronounced )and was snowy. Blocking was great that Winter as we all know. MJO pretty much a guarantee of traversing cold phases at decent amp. So, yeah it will have an affect. My thoughts at this juncture are an overall average Winter Temperature wise if blocking is dominant and above average Snowfall. If no sustainable blocking, milder than average with below average Snowfall. Pretty much what many probably think considering the Global Drivers. The -QBO along with the favorable MJO outlook may very well assist in accomplishing blocking scenario as is a no brainer.
  23. Daniel Boone
    -PDO along with Strong El Nino should equate to Heavy Snows in at least Central and Southern areas of the West. The worries imo irt to downstream effects in our area are if the STJ comes further North in the West and Lp's forming,whereby possibly pulling the Polar Jet South westward and forcing downstream ridging and flooding us with warmth. We'll need strong blocking to counter that.
  24. Daniel Boone
    El Nino Fall 2002-03 progressed similarly as I recall.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Great work per usual Larry !
×
×
  • Create New...