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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Measured an inch on hard surfaces such as snowboard and Vehicle. Heavy dusting on grass although lying leaves had a decent coating.
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Picked up 3.03" Total Rainfall from this system. Quite a soaking. Some minor flooding .
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Most times models underdo nw Flow snowfall amounts. Particularly Se, Ky and portions of Lee, Wise and Dickenson Counties in Va.. It is these areas that get first "pick" at the lake and wrap around residual moisture. I don't know if this is incorporated in the model's, If not, it should be . Not just elevation. Model's are only as good as what's programmed into or how accurate the data is going into them.- 1,666 replies
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Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
Daniel Boone replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
I lived and worked in Pennington gap in Lee County at the time and remember this well. I also recorded the event in my daily weather log. My records from then were unfortunately lost during relocation. However, memory serves me quite well. Snow began in Pennington around 8:30 p.m. and quickly became heavy. By 6:30 the next morning there was 6 inches with just a few flakes falling. I worked for the city at the time and was outside throughout the day and only observed a few light flurries and can recall reports of heavy snow just to our south in Rogersville. Snow began falling moderate to heavy just after 4 p.m. and lasted untill 9 or so with an additional 4 inches falling for a total of 10". The morning low there the 5th was -21 with the official afternoon high of 4 below. This was recorded at the radio station there as well as my home in Pennington gap. A report of -30 (via, WCYB) from the Rose hill area in western Lee County. The Jan 21 1985 outbreak was about the same with -24 Low, -4 High with snow depth of 7".- 127 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Happy Thanksgiving to all !- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
He was talking about the advertised +AO.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hm replied to my tweet regarding this and said he expected this to happen but, it should be short lived.- 1,666 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Glad youre on the mend Jeff. Great to have u back.- 574 replies
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- early winter
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I see CPC IS going warm for most of the country for December. Following those climate models. Of course, cpc is warn biased anyway as most of us know.- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thanks buddy. Just being an old timer with experience and memories that help. Brother, you definitely add valuable insight to the forums. Let's hope the Ghost of those winters of yore pay a visit . Although, I couldn't enjoy them like I used to. Tough to handle the cold anymore.- 574 replies
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2019 ENSO
Daniel Boone replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Radiance, first off, kudos on the work u put into this. Good stuff ! The biggest difference this winter compared to last I believe is going to be blocking. Enough of it and you can have cold cover much of the U.S., coast to coast, including the upper Southeast even with a -PNA. Ala., 1978-79. Of course on back, the '60's featured this fairly consistent. Blocking was so strong it congested the flow to create a +PNA at times with a -PDO background . Of course, as so many make a point of, we are in a warmer Climate era now so, things are different now. Yes, this is true but, a watered down version to the pattern those years is still possible. Also, we are in a decent Solar Minimum now and let's not forget the descending QBO. -
Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
This period coming up is going to be tough. So many variables juggling for position.- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
My bad on the gefs. Actually saw on ma forum that it was mild too. May of been an earlier run they were referencing although last I had saw the eps was mild, gefs cold. I'd bet models would be going with the warm-up back the in lr as well, only to of reverted at closer range. Also, makes u wonder how the MJO acted then.?. We know HL blocking was prevalent most of the time. I, like you Carvers, feel HLB is and will play havoc. Enough of it and even the MJO warm phases can be rather cool. Food for thought.- 574 replies
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- early winter
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
MJO may actually deter end of month mild pattern eps,gefs indicate. I wonder how models would have done during the late 70's Winters .?. The repetitive persistent cold pattern that lasted for months.- 574 replies
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Hm is all in end of Month. He is really touting the Aleutian L.p. pattern setup..via his tweets.
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Verbatim, that has snow threats written all over it, depending on how much cold is available of course.
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Last checked, Kmrx hadn't put out anything on it. Models all underforecasted amounts for Lee County. The Euro came closest. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
The Nov. 1950 storm was a monster ! Great writeups and pics can be found online. My County received 1 to 3 feet with much higher drifts. The official reporting station in Pennington gap (ele. 1400 ft) recorded 17". A relative of mine was in for Thanksgiving from Dayton Ohio and said his Car looked like a hump, completed covered when he went out to get ready to head back to Dayton. The Weirton Museum online has alot of pics from that part of WV in their site. 4 feet there. Most reported was in southern WV where 5 feet was reported ! -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
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I'm in a rather elevated area at 1729 ft.
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Measured 3.5 to 4 inches here Lee Co. in far SW Va..
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Measured 3.5 to 4 inches. 4" in grass. -
Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
Daniel Boone replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
That September setup of a -Nao hooking up with a SE Ridge is a somewhat typical setup in summer months but, not Winter. Has happened but, rare. So, hopefully the law of averages works in this case.- 574 replies
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- early winter
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Showers started here about an hour ago. -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
Daniel Boone replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
I remember years past, mainly 70's and 80s of this occurring with arctic frontal passages. Several inches would fall , even in the lower elevations.