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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Yep. It has been stingy regarding Snow for the area all Season. Like you, hopefully it won't score one.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Just wondered as its been terrible here this Winter.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Anyone know much about the IBM Graff Model ? Anyway, it is the "in house " model WCYB in Bristol uses. Just curious as I conversed with them recently as was curious because of its forecasted failures as far as Lee, Claiborne and Hancock Counties were concerned.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Good point's per usual Carvers. NOAA has a tendency to use the RMM and GEFS as you know. We all pretty much know their bias's.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Waterways are up here yhis morning . Measured 1.99" Rainfall from this System. That along with residual snowmelt caused alot of standing water in lawns and pastures along with some streams coming over their banks last night.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Grit posted a Noaa MJO update a little while ago in Southeastern. I didn't take time to check it out, other than them saying it's gaining amp in WPAC.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully, it'll be right . Euro's really not that far off. I think it still has a bit of warm bias so, who knows. May be reason of its Christmas Eve failure of sorts or could be it has a weakness with anafrontal situations or that was just a fluke by it.
  8. Daniel Boone
    As far as this side of the mountains, particularly the Cumberlands, the Canadian Suite has outperformed the others overall this Winter.
  9. Daniel Boone
    It has been the most accurate in Lee County and from what I gather, along the Cumberland range. The others run a bit warm for here.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Yep! Typical model adjustments during blocking.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Let's hope the RGEM keeps the hot hand.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, always a little nervous when the Euro is not "in". I believe ur right on it being the Christmas Eve event it had trouble with. Could be there's a bit of a weakness with it regarding anafrontal precip...
  13. Daniel Boone
    That's our money Model buddy ! Hopefully, it'll continue it's hot streak.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Would have had a Torch much of the winter so far had it not been for the blocking. Hopefully, we can maintain that thru Feb. and bonus March. Can u imagine if we'd had a decent PAC Setup.!? Another thing that would sure help Is if the emerging MJO can get into the "nowadays ever so elusive in winter" cold phases.
  15. Daniel Boone
    South.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Let's continue that shift another 50 miles South. Even taken verbatim, they May be doing the same as they did with a couple systems this season in undergoing amounts in the upper northern great Valley.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Hopefully blocking will be persistent and be prevalent thereby preventing a Nov. repeat.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. May trend a bit more south. HP Press.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Insult to injury there Jax. After what was looking like a sustained cold possibly snowy stretch to a not so great pattern advertised. Then that. Severe this time of year is not most in here's cup of Tea. Hopefully, it's wrong like the December outlook was for a warm possibly stormy period around Christmas.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Pretty much classic Nina pattern. Not surprising from them.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Only 1/4" Snow and sleet here. Heavier area of Snow Eastern Lee County eastward.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with a quarter of inch of snow and sleet. Roads were terrible this morning !
  23. Daniel Boone
    They all except the last system overperformed here. I'm at 17.05" for the season. Probably be about half that if most models had been right , and that within 24 hrs of events.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Right with u on that buddy. I think it could be models are having a tough time balancing what a typical trough west ridge east solution with strong counter blocking. I guess it could come up so far but, would then more than likely transfer eastward. Hopefully for us, if it does it'll do so b4 coming that far North.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Minus the real cold, can't complain up here snowfall wise, "yet", lol. We have saw warm , -NAO linkage , MJO finally gaining Amp. out of COD, on models more than once so far this Winter and it didn't happen. So, even though I'm more Leary this time, especially with the Niña Aleutian ridge in place now. However, I'm still leaning somewhat in favor of a similar thing happening this go around. EPS ftw, 60/40 %. Main thing to watch I believe is the MJO . As Carvers aluded, is prob. what is causing the warm east progression. That and of course the Pac Ridge position , of which proximity of MJO would affect as well, along with Niña forcing.
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