snowman19

I have to look up the article on the specifics of exactly how long the lag takes. It’s an old article. I know in winter, there is a lag on the atmospheric response from when there is a major SOI drop to when its effects are felt in sensible weather patterns. The SOI drops and the lagged troughing in the east (that JB always loves to use) only applies when an El Nino is in place. His followers were trying to use that this past winter every time the SOI dropped substantially and it didn’t work out because of the La Niña that we had

Yes, I believe there is a lag effect with the SOI

Not to worry, even if it goes strong/super he will still predict a cold and snowy winter in the northeast. Back in the fall of 2015 he used 57-58, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs with a raging super El Niño in place. Quite possibly the worst choice of analogs in history, but he needed retweets, likes and follows as he always does

JB all in on a very strong El Niño….never thought I’d see the day

Very rapid PDO changes now

There was spread between the dynamic and statistical models because a couple of the statistical models are on crack and showed a La Niña developing again by fall. There was very good agreement among the dynamic models actually

As the SOI gets more and more negative and the +IOD blossoms, I kind of doubt it stays that way. We’ll have to wait and see

This is very impressive agreement

The +IOD development is also looking more impressive. That will constructively interfere with the Nino. IMO a high-end strong Nino is looking more and more likely. We’ll see about super but if the Nino is in strong territory by the end of August, I would say that possibility goes up substantially. The 20C isotherm is just below the surface in regions 3 and 1+2….once that surfaces, it’s going to enhance Bjerknes feedback in those regions. Given that fact, I think it stays east-based and if it goes basin-wide it will have an east lean

The impact of the record +IOD of 19-20 was grossly underestimated. SSTs north of Australia were 90+ at the end of that summer. It totally altered the global heat budget and helped lead to the ridiculously positive NAM and NAO and SPV that winter

IMO if it does go basin-wide it has an east lean in regions 1+2 and 3. Where the actual main tropical convective forcing is if that happens is anyone’s guess

Agree. Maybe it goes basin-wide? That said, I very highly doubt a Modoki this year, if you look back at all the years that started off this extremely east-based, none of them went to a true Modoki configuration. My guess is that it either stays east-based (most likely) or it goes basin-wide

Region 3.4 is ahead of 1997 and 1982 at this point in time and we are more east-based

This is nothing at all like the El Niño fail of 2017

This is event developing like the El Niños of yester year….starting in regions 1+2 and 3 then expanding westward…..

I think we’re done with the Niña background state. The big +AAM run back in January proves it wants to change. As the El Nino continues to build I expect more +AAM/-SOI runs in the future as the atmosphere couples and feedsback as the Bjerknes effect gets stronger with time