caviman2201

Para did the same thing as regular.. moved that heavy precip axis south compared to 12z... still a great thump area-wide

Even talking about a thread makes me nervous... the snow gods are going to think we're getting cocky

Sold.

Para looks snowy again... DC getting the goods at 84h

Just noticed WB added the GFS Para... 18z looks snowy

Doesn't it tend to run warm too?

Can we agree we all have access to NAM panels?

Seems very odd to see a banana high in the right position with a surface low dying in eastern TN and we get no snow...

Radar lighting up over central MD... HoCo, Baltimore and northern AACo should be in good rates for at least another few hours

First time I get to say it this year... Puking dendrites in Glen Burnie!

Flipped back to mostly snow here in northern AA Co... Can see the sleet line sagging south on CC radar quite clearly

36/28 very light mist/snizzle/blech

Its like transgressive art... its so hideous, so profane... that its beautiful lol

You do have to chuckle at how consistently that max mathematical computation rendered as a 2D depiction of the surface-level snowfall result of the forces higher in the atmosphere that totally isn't a forecast, yes we know, thank you always ends up right along the Mason Dixon. Disclaimer: No, I'm not surprised, I'm aware of climo - its just interesting to see how many different ways it gets there.

But you stayed up to see it didn't you lol

Not to gang up, but everything being posted is true lol. I've been here since the beginning and have had my run-ins as well. Ignoring works best.

I don't recall saying they did

Ukie went north with wave 1 and really dried up wave 2. Pretty big reduction for totals of both. Still 3-5" area-wide, but down from 6-8". Probably just coming into reality.

I'd be fine with events not getting within 5 days since I don't get my hopes up that far out. I do get my hopes up when every single model shows MBY at 4-6" within 48h. What am I supposed to do, not get excited until it's over? The models have to be better

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think we've ever seen this many events fall apart in the last 24-36h. I'm the past it felt like it was the exception, not the rule, that an event fell apart so late. People told stories of last minute fails. What the hell is going on with the models being so consistent in the 2-4d range and then completely unraveling in close? Obviously all that is irrelevant if this thing comes north tomorrow and the confluence is weaker than modeled like it was in the 1/31 event. That time it screwed the cities. This time we need it and watch it not do it.

Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro

Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable?

This is what gets me the worst this year... We've seen plenty of 48-72h trend fails over the years... but this year takes the cake of ripping my heart out within 24h. I was conditioned to wait until inside-36h to start feeling good but this year has shattered all that. Thats why I'm just not buying this one. I am going to expect this to keep trending S until I finally complete my Baltimore snow hole. Its looking good to the N, but to the S is lacking a bit. If this storm comes through for me and drops 6-8" of powder from Rt. 50-south, the great AACo Snow Hole of 2021 will be glorious. The 00z Sunday NAM had my house at 3" within 9hours of precip onset. I ended up with a slushy half inch. Maybe it wasn't quite in its "wheelhouse" yet.

12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip:

This looks tasty...