caviman2201
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Everything posted by caviman2201
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The snow axis on the GFS has changed from NE/SW to E/W over the past few runs... interesting development
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If it had continued NE from Hr53-56, it would have been a significant move SE from 12z... maybe thats what the SLP will actually do, but maybe its something someone smarter than me can explain because 12z didn't do that. It was tucked the whole way up the coast and move more or less due NE.
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Doesn't the progression of the low look a little odd? At hr54 its at the CBBT, hr55 its 10mi offshore, hr56 its off the southern tip of Chincoteague (all fine so far) but then at hr57 it jumps 25mi NW over Deale, MD, moves due N over Cambridge and then moves NE from there. Hr53-54 on 18z was significantly SE of Hr59-60 on the 12z before that random jump NW where it 'corrected' to match 12z's SLP track.
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This is going to be a pure nowcasting event for everyone within 15 miles of I95. I really don't think any of the models are going to know where the 925 and 850 0C boundaries are going to set up with any lead time. This will be an HRRR and CC NEXRAD day for people like me living close to Baltimore. I'm putting no stock in the models other than 'its going to be very close and I'm going to see a mixed bag throughout the day, possibly ending with some nice deform.
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This is 24hrs old...
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Yea but... That's harder
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Pretty sure I took Physical Geography with him too in the 2003-2005 timeframe. Neat.
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Doesn't this include things like compaction and melting? I think most of us understand (I hope) that in a storm like this 10" of snowfall will in no way mean 10" on the ground at the end. Even a short period of mixing would knock down all the front end snow to dense slush.
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Does the RGEM have the 'amped at range' issues that the NAM has given that they are both short range meso models?
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Sorry if already posted... WBAL/Tony Pann going kinda conservative
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So when can we expect to see your forecast? Tomorrow?
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Very.. I'm in northern AACo and feel like I'll be able to drive 30 mins to either a slushy inch or a foot. If that means I get 3-6 I'm perfectly fine with that but the bleeding must stop. Euro walked me off the ledge a little which is kind of rare.
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Eeeek... the kiss of death...
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Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide.
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Euro'ing incoming... H is stronger and further west @ 102
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Agreed. One hopes they just got tired of the chase with no reward and decided to take a break.
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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
caviman2201 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Isn't it supposed to be windy or something? 12Z NAM 3k has my area experiencing 25-30mph sustained w/ gusts in the 50s at 10am. I barely see the leaves moving... -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
caviman2201 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I often wonder about this myself when I see people's posts on here about very severe storms. While I realize that people's hopes on a website aren't going to change where a storm hits, everyone is a hardass about tornadoes until one destroys their house or worse. I also think a lot of the people who root for tornadoes live in buildings they don't own... apartments, rentals, etc. That or they just don't think it can happen to them and don't much care if it happens to anyone else. -
We do this in the MIDATL... What's everyone drinking/munching on while binge watching TWC and refreshing sat shots? For me it's Paulaner Oktoberfest and peanut butter filled pretzel bites
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Unfortunately, cloud storage ain't free... but this site is.
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Man this blows... I'm supposed to take the family to Ocean City, MD next week and now i just don't know what to do... early week looks fine but after that it could be nothing, a breezy day or a hurricane sliding up the coast.
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Do the tropical threads ever get the 'storm mode' treatment we get in the MIDATL forum? If not, it needs it...
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Gorgeous dendrites ripping in Glen Burnie
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Many have used the term to our significant others when they ask what the hell we're doing putting our boots and gloves on to go wander around in a snowstorm at midnight lmao
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Pretty incredible that most of us are nearing or have already hit the minimum we were expecting just 2 days ago...
