caviman2201

Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think we've ever seen this many events fall apart in the last 24-36h. I'm the past it felt like it was the exception, not the rule, that an event fell apart so late. People told stories of last minute fails. What the hell is going on with the models being so consistent in the 2-4d range and then completely unraveling in close? Obviously all that is irrelevant if this thing comes north tomorrow and the confluence is weaker than modeled like it was in the 1/31 event. That time it screwed the cities. This time we need it and watch it not do it.

Fwiw 18z HRRR is much better on the north side than the Euro

Can someone smarter than me tell me what they're thinking about ratios on this? Seems plenty cold but soundings show very little lift in the DGZ for this event. WxBell showing Kuchera ratios around 8-10:1. Does that seem reasonable?

This is what gets me the worst this year... We've seen plenty of 48-72h trend fails over the years... but this year takes the cake of ripping my heart out within 24h. I was conditioned to wait until inside-36h to start feeling good but this year has shattered all that. Thats why I'm just not buying this one. I am going to expect this to keep trending S until I finally complete my Baltimore snow hole. Its looking good to the N, but to the S is lacking a bit. If this storm comes through for me and drops 6-8" of powder from Rt. 50-south, the great AACo Snow Hole of 2021 will be glorious. The 00z Sunday NAM had my house at 3" within 9hours of precip onset. I ended up with a slushy half inch. Maybe it wasn't quite in its "wheelhouse" yet.

12z QPF roundup for posterity... still pretty significant differences in northern extent of precip:

This looks tasty...

Not sure if anyone else noticed this, but PivotalWeather has added soundings for both the CMC and Euro (as well as all the others) if you pay the $7 month. Pretty good deal. I haven't seen Euro soundings anywhere else.

I wish I was that close to climo... BWI region has had it much worse than NoVA this year, so... perspective. I think BWI climo is 18" and we've seen around 7-8". Not sure what their official tally is at this point.

Total GFS Precip for both waves... all snow ~ north of Rt. 50

I couldn't resist...

Oh look... It's the last second north tick that's happened all year. This year it seems that if you want the goods, you want to be north fringed at 48-72h, ideally worrying about suppression

If we get that last second tick north that we've seen every storm now, DC and Baltimore will be in the best stuff. Hopefully we can get it one more time

If only I had any faith in the models at this point. I think I've had 2-3ft of modeled snow within 48h of onset this winter and have only 6" to show for it. Baltimore has been getting Lucy'd pretty hard this year

What did Baltimore do to anger the snow gods this year? This is pathetic. Mostly Rain. 36/30. Maybe a quarter inch of wet slop on grass

41/21 Glen Burnie

We're 24h from onset. I want them as meteorologists to make a forecast of a range of snowfall without a bunch of caveats and let the chips fall where they may. I'm happy to read all the disco/explanation but make a call on a map. Sorry if that's asking too much. With that I'm going to let it drop.

Lol people rag on CWG's 1-20" boom/bust/high/medium/low confidence forecasts every day on this forum and I'm getting the business from an account that posts once a decade over my first and only jab at them.

Except they're supposed to tell me something I don't know by looking at the spread on TT...

Quickly becoming the minority here in the 11th hour. We seem to keep having storms trend worse in the homestretch.

I would take the 12z NAM verbatim. Let us flatlanders get one

Does anyone else struggle in this timerange (before NWS puts out any watches/warnings, but close enough to feel comfortable that it is going to snow some) with telling friends/family/wife/kids about the possible snow for fear of jinxing it? I feel like every time as soon as I say something to the family that's when the models start trending to screw us.

Maybe we flatlanders can get one this year... it wouldn't be the worst thing ever for it to not be a fall line special

I don't know why you guys are giving rgem such a hard time... I got well over 10% of it's advertised short range totals. Beats the heck out of dropping dirt into the breeze.

Its been that way all season. The snowfall gradient on the seasonal map is very telling. I know a lot of the forum is feeling pretty good right now but it has been very painful E of 95 this year.

North trend right up to gametime for NYC jack?