caviman2201

Well, we have to over-analyze and freak out about something until the GFS gets in range... would you rather people go back to extrapolating the 84h NAM?

The question is... Is this enough digital snow for Ji?

I was worried for a minute there you were going to take your ball and go home on tracking this season... glad to see you're still in it. We need you scanning the horizons to keep the hope alive.

Neither... it crushes us.

That would certainly not need much adjustment to be a HECS for the cities... verbatim it is one just N&W... happy to be tracking in late Jan.

For anyone wondering, Kuchera accums are basically identical. Maybe a tiny bit lower in the N&W regions.

Same I'm just hoping for some snow TV, more is gravy.

It'll get there

16z HRRR just remembered it needs to jack PSU

Kind of interesting to hear that they use global ensembles right up to onset... feel like I've been told many times here that global ensembles are not useful for that specific purpose because they can't pick up on meso features.

They have basically nothing E of 95... I don't even get a "winter precipitation start time". They think this is a fall line N&W event only. Meso's seem to be indicating this is more of an E-W orientation than a NE-SW. I realize I'm squabbling over a trashcan topper, but hey... this could still easily be my biggest snow of the season down here.

I feel like all season everything has trended north/warm in the last 48h before the event. Maybe this one can too... but with our luck this will be the one that doesn't

Had a ton of oranges that I didn't want to see go bad... Juicer and Tito's helped fix the issue. How's the snow coming along?

Or it jumps right over us and plasters PA...

Kind of like the cities in Dec lol

Yup. I imagine most of us S&E of 95 who got nil in Dec would agree. I'm good with anything other than 38 degree rain.

This. My wife does not understand why elevation is so important to me. She's more into square footage, age, schools and other unimportant things.

So... the north trend that has effed us all year will work in our favor to give us the goods on the 29th and not bury NC, right? That won't like be the one storm all year that doesn't trend north... right? Who am I kidding... we're going to end up with a DC-Balt snow hole of biblical proportions. I can't wait to see how hilarious the seasonal snowfall map looks late next week. This is legitimately cruel if it verifies.

As happy as I am that it improved that much, it's pretty frustrating to see even an ensemble change that drastically in one run. An op I understand but come on

What was it someone said a while back? This is a 'close the blinds' pattern until the 21st? Probably sound advice and a good idea for those of us burned out. Take a break and check for something trackable in a week.

HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.

The member view is getting much 'bluer' with each run... several nice hits in there now:

Fixed. Seems like not only is that discrete threat dead, but the whole 'great pattern incoming' idea is taking its final breaths

I think you took the snow with you when you left, Jeb

Ok I gotta ask... Hope this isn't rude but there are several folks here who often contribute in very meaningful ways who aren't met tagged. Thinking folks like psu, ralph, cape, isotherm, randy, etc as well as those no longer around like Mitch and Bob. Are you folks all pure hobbyists who have just been at it a long time or do any of you have formal met education? Been around this community a long time (since EUSWX days) and usually keep my uninformed trap shut, but aside from red tags I've learned an insane amount about weather from you guys. Anyways just wanted to say thanks and wanted to know where you all have picked up what you know whether formal education or otherwise. Cheers.