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caviman2201

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Everything posted by caviman2201

  1. caviman2201
    Doesn't the progression of the low look a little odd? At hr54 its at the CBBT, hr55 its 10mi offshore, hr56 its off the southern tip of Chincoteague (all fine so far) but then at hr57 it jumps 25mi NW over Deale, MD, moves due N over Cambridge and then moves NE from there. Hr53-54 on 18z was significantly SE of Hr59-60 on the 12z before that random jump NW where it 'corrected' to match 12z's SLP track.
  2. caviman2201
    This is going to be a pure nowcasting event for everyone within 15 miles of I95. I really don't think any of the models are going to know where the 925 and 850 0C boundaries are going to set up with any lead time. This will be an HRRR and CC NEXRAD day for people like me living close to Baltimore. I'm putting no stock in the models other than 'its going to be very close and I'm going to see a mixed bag throughout the day, possibly ending with some nice deform.
  3. caviman2201
    This is 24hrs old...
  4. caviman2201
    Yea but... That's harder
  5. caviman2201
    Pretty sure I took Physical Geography with him too in the 2003-2005 timeframe. Neat.
  6. caviman2201
    Doesn't this include things like compaction and melting? I think most of us understand (I hope) that in a storm like this 10" of snowfall will in no way mean 10" on the ground at the end. Even a short period of mixing would knock down all the front end snow to dense slush.
  7. caviman2201
    Does the RGEM have the 'amped at range' issues that the NAM has given that they are both short range meso models?
  8. caviman2201
    Sorry if already posted... WBAL/Tony Pann going kinda conservative
  9. caviman2201
    So when can we expect to see your forecast? Tomorrow?
  10. caviman2201
    Very.. I'm in northern AACo and feel like I'll be able to drive 30 mins to either a slushy inch or a foot. If that means I get 3-6 I'm perfectly fine with that but the bleeding must stop. Euro walked me off the ledge a little which is kind of rare.
  11. caviman2201
    Eeeek... the kiss of death...
  12. caviman2201
    Also, weenie rule #35 - CAD always takes longer to scour out than modeled My bar is so low a 2" front end thump would make me happy and that seems almost likely at this point forum-wide.
  13. caviman2201
    Euro'ing incoming... H is stronger and further west @ 102
  14. caviman2201
    Agreed. One hopes they just got tired of the chase with no reward and decided to take a break.
  15. caviman2201
    Isn't it supposed to be windy or something? 12Z NAM 3k has my area experiencing 25-30mph sustained w/ gusts in the 50s at 10am. I barely see the leaves moving...
  16. caviman2201
    I often wonder about this myself when I see people's posts on here about very severe storms. While I realize that people's hopes on a website aren't going to change where a storm hits, everyone is a hardass about tornadoes until one destroys their house or worse. I also think a lot of the people who root for tornadoes live in buildings they don't own... apartments, rentals, etc. That or they just don't think it can happen to them and don't much care if it happens to anyone else.
  17. caviman2201
  18. caviman2201
    Like this? https://www.mediaite.com/tv/don-lemon-bursts-out-laughing-as-panelists-mock-trump-and-credulous-boomer-rube-supporters/ "News" indeed. Both channels (cable news in general) are a mockery of journalism.
  19. caviman2201
    Its better on Pivotal than on WxBell... i may be cancelling my subscription soon and sending my $ to Pivotal lol
  20. caviman2201
    Crushing the analogies today, aren't we...
  21. caviman2201
    Makes total sense - thanks. Effectively the climo has shifted N/NW by a few miles... which since we were almost always extremely close to or on the R/S line, we're now more often than before S/SE of it. So BWI's climo is now more like Annapolis's was 40 years ago. Yours is more like BWI's was 40 years ago.
  22. caviman2201
    Maybe I'm dumb, but every chart I've seen depicting CC shows approx a 1 degree C bump globally since ~1980. Is that tiny amount really enough to cause such a drastic change already? I'm sure it can't be explained in detail here, but just looking for the Reader's Digest explanation. To the layperson like myself, 1 degree C warmer over a 40 year span doesn't seem like enough to change our climo drastically.
  23. caviman2201
    I feel like this has happened before... maybe recently... Just brutal.
  24. caviman2201
    Looking back at previous year NOHRSC Snowfall season maps to this date, we really aren't that far behind our typical climo for most years. Maybe everyone already knows this, but the data show the vast majority of our snow falls after today's date. Maybe others can fill in whether in previous years, by this time we could see a near term workable pattern or not, but at least its a small reason to still be optimistic this 'early'.
  25. caviman2201
    You can keep the scythe holstered for now... watch list if both of the next two storms are a fail...
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