caviman2201

So... the north trend that has effed us all year will work in our favor to give us the goods on the 29th and not bury NC, right? That won't like be the one storm all year that doesn't trend north... right? Who am I kidding... we're going to end up with a DC-Balt snow hole of biblical proportions. I can't wait to see how hilarious the seasonal snowfall map looks late next week. This is legitimately cruel if it verifies.

As happy as I am that it improved that much, it's pretty frustrating to see even an ensemble change that drastically in one run. An op I understand but come on

What was it someone said a while back? This is a 'close the blinds' pattern until the 21st? Probably sound advice and a good idea for those of us burned out. Take a break and check for something trackable in a week.

HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.

The member view is getting much 'bluer' with each run... several nice hits in there now:

Fixed. Seems like not only is that discrete threat dead, but the whole 'great pattern incoming' idea is taking its final breaths

I think you took the snow with you when you left, Jeb

Ok I gotta ask... Hope this isn't rude but there are several folks here who often contribute in very meaningful ways who aren't met tagged. Thinking folks like psu, ralph, cape, isotherm, randy, etc as well as those no longer around like Mitch and Bob. Are you folks all pure hobbyists who have just been at it a long time or do any of you have formal met education? Been around this community a long time (since EUSWX days) and usually keep my uninformed trap shut, but aside from red tags I've learned an insane amount about weather from you guys. Anyways just wanted to say thanks and wanted to know where you all have picked up what you know whether formal education or otherwise. Cheers.

At least we still have February! Our prime snow climo month! Right? ...

So... we're no longer in an Ice Age?

interesting that we're able to see with near perfect clarity the storms we definitely won't get from 20 days out...

As someone whose work laptop blocks twitter, I appreciate it

Not sure if anyone in here has seen The Money Pit (80s comedy with Tom Hanks & Shelly Long), but there's a running joke in that movie that the construction on their house will be done in "2 weeks" and by the end of the movie the contractors are mocking the homeowners after weeks and weeks of suffering telling them it'll be done in "2 weeks". It became a running joke with my movie-quote-loving family growing up that anything that was going to either take forever or never happen would be done in "2 weeks"... thats what I chuckle to myself every time the prognosticators tell us that the greatest, most amazing pattern ever is coming. Its permanently 2 weeks away. Then its spring.

That one should have been the free space...

I for one can't wait to see the NOHRSC Seasonal Snowfall map after two southern sliders... the DC-Balt-I95 snowhole is going to be in full bloom. Here's where we stand right now: ... and here's the GFS thru 300: ... put them together, and...

Reminds me of the Valentine's Day 2015 event... that was nuts.

Something I'm not understanding... maybe someone smart can explain it to me. According to SPC Mesoanalysis, the SLP has basically taken a perfect track - the kind of track that had models spitting out ridiculous totals for us even along I95. The models (at least the runs over the past 24h) seemed to have nailed the event for I95 - quick thump, quick changeover, rain rest of the event, 1-3". What I'm not understanding is that the models came to that conclusion based on an SLP that tracked basically right over Delmarva. The SLP didn't do that - its at least 25-50 miles east of all guidance but we still ended up with the same result. Am I missing something?

Watching it close in on me is both fascinating and depressing lol

Pretty sure I've now eclipsed last winter in Glen Burnie... I had forgotten how beautiful just little over a half inch of white gold can be.

I mean... Is a track like that really plausible/supported or might it be a little more muted in reality than the depicted "screw MA zigzag of doom"? What is causing the sudden turn NW only to correct ENE later?

Well it did until hr23 when it did a massive jump NW with the SLP... so weird

HRRR is keeping the SLP further SE like the globals were a day or two ago...

My sister lives in Pocono Lake... I'll share pics of the utter destruction when she sends them to me to gloat

Also, I don't see the Inner Harbor with full UHI outperforming BWI in this one being so thermals dependent.

In all seriousness though if there ever was a storm for novice chasers, this is it. If this crazy gradient verifies, those of us in the coastal plain who have never chased have a rare opportunity to chase from cold rain to a foot of snow and be back before our boss notices we left.