Maestrobjwa

Yeah we haven't had to use that thread all winter don't break the streak now

I feel like atmospheric memory and Chill's "train tracks" are kinda cut from a simar cloth. It’s kinda like when a winter shows ya who it is...believe it the first time, lol

So all over the state they about to make the roads all ashy for no reason? Boo

The first day of spring was hilarious (I remember making a video to troll my friends who aren't big on snow, lol)

My question is...why have those w-e been so bad in our yards the last 8 years? Constantly hitting the same dang wall like that seems weird to me. Ya poked me a bit when I shared that post from Bluewave about something in the Pacific (ocean temps around Japam or something like that) possibly being a culprit...but this is why I did. Seems weird that those waves have setup at the exact same spot all this time.

Well, it doesn't have to be...I mean this to me just felt like something totally random in the flow that ultimately screwed it up. It just wasn't meant to be this time around...just gotta flush this one and move on. All you can do, really.

Brooooo well this would be a perfect time to see it! It's a 3-part Docudrama, and Paul Rhys' Beethoven portrayal is the best one I've ever seen. All 3 parts are on YouTube for free (and each is an hour so you'll have plenty to distract ya ) Part 1: https://youtu.be/QVtf5LbXB2s?si=Q5bAGHkuBIfTBnqe Part 2: https://youtu.be/tedQsfbcMQ0?si=0j14rjArDTUp_jqb Part 3: https://youtu.be/pHdyfuNnaOM?si=Tln-Dr9Zn7kv7FET

Looking at the models like: This is from "The Genius of Beethoven" btw. Have you ever seen it?

https://x.com/AvaWBAL/status/1891447717366243549?t=Lfs_GQNcyLgo2AsGhF1tZQ&s=19 @mappy!!! Ava just said "I'm the problem it's me". So you are hereby guilty by association!

I guess you'd expect to see more tucked members overall?

Yeah I'm not sure they do it EVERY time...I mean the 2017-18 nina didn't, and instead we got a weak niño instead. But double dipping does seem to happen more overall, smh

Pulling away? So you're NOT gonna be back next year to remind us about how poor they're doing?

Well, that would be the next test. I mean last year was so insanely negative I wonder if that would've worked with any niño in the past (anybody have any analogs). You'd HOPE a modoki with a +PDO would yield a better result...but as with everything else ya still have to see what still works and how.

Didn't that torch in February, though?

Brief, muted warm-ups followed by a quick return to cold has probably been THE most refreshing tendency of this season. I mean how often have we had to deal with the polar opposite the last several years? Lol

This is why I couldn't go any lower than a B- even with another winter below the median for my yard. We all expected it to be crappy coming in, and instead...the "feel" was wall-to-wall winter! A very pleasant surprise--really enjoyed January in particular...haven't had an almost month-long snowpack since what...2014? Now, we don't talk about models (no, no, no)...

This part. I think avoiding this emotional pitfall is key to ingesting these snowmaps in a healthy way. Don't start fantasizing when ya see them at 120+ hours--nip that in the bud and toss the pretty pinks aside as a non-reality. Otherwise...you WILL start to get attached subconsciously even when you logically know it's far from bejng set in stone. So I guess it's a bit of a mental discipline thing, lol

I stand corrected, lol And you're right--that buried in a sea of pink Euro snowmaps...

Never hold back your alarm bells, Bob! I think it would go a long way in setting more realistic expectations around here--seriously!

Whoa...wasn't expecting that lecture. I never meant that you should sugarcoat anything. You keep things realistic and we need that. And I'm not telling YOU how to post, per se. That was just MY opinion on the "what if" part of this we don't know yet. That unknown is also part of the reality. We don't know--You could be right, or perhaps it could be better. We can choose which one we focus on in the midst of any disappointment over this winter. Funny...one poster skewered me terribly for debbing on his unlimited optimism about a winter (and folks in general when I'd say in the Fall I doubted the winter results) And now I counter with a positive spin and get this. Ah, well...can't please everybody

So...what are the early thoughts on ENSO next year?

It might be healthier if we don't go there, lol And actually...here's another plot turn: The first year in awhile (9 years?) that we didn't have a deeply negative PDO (but rather slightly negative) we also had our best opportunities...so maybe that means we'll have more opportunities if it is indeed flipping?

I feel like they all crapped the bed in the midrange with this one.

Shoulda spaced that out more for full effect, lol

And in turn did a number on the forum, lol