Maestrobjwa

Interesting how we haven't had to have the "too warm" discussion for awhile. The mediocre snow totals from last year to now can't be blamed on that! Unless the elephant is responsible for the SIX Ninas we've had over the last 10 years... IF we can't get things going late Jan on for whatever reason (not saying we won't so don't jump on me--I said IF), we reeaaalllly need next year's niño to deliver. We can't afford to have both niños of the decade not produce.

Hrm...I get the feeling that we may actually have enough cold air north of us to work, and maybe that shows itself as we get closer. I mean I haven't seen a SE ridge in any of the maps shared. And if it's that cold nearby perhaps that could do it? (Oy why am I trying to do analysis today? Who do I think I am???)

Yeah I don't think he's gonna be able do much against that Pats defense.

Lol Steelers!!!! HA!! Now we see what they do with Tomlin. It's only fitting that the two rivals get a fresh start at the same time!

I mean I understand the purpose (extra protection) and I totally support that but..mercy they make the players look like bobbleheads, haha

Stroud picked an awful time to be abysmal. Goodness gracious

A nice simple way to get something. Let's see if the general idea survives to Saturday

Yuck...you know, I'm not sure I like the idea of a KU in a nina UNLESS there's a way to avoid this outcome. Now I know he's in NJ so it's better for them, but...I don't know.

Someone got a KU in 2022?

Lol Listen everybody gotta do what's best for their mental health!

Alright so I didn't fully understand what you were saying after all, haha (layman fail, lol). I knew you meant it was gonna be colder but I didn't know about the nat gas terminology. Interesting that term means the inverse of what you'd assume!

Huge degree gain? Don't think we want that! (I know what you meant, lol Just busting ya about the warning)

A pattern at 14 days or less is not exactly fantasy. I know that the PNA which has been negative (not helpful) has crossed into positive territory for the first time this winter. That's current and could help. There are other details that @CAPE and others have highlighted here. But what I'm saying is analyzing the potential of a a pattern is different than trying to nail down a specific storm two weeks out. There are larger scale features ensembles can pick up on.

No way I could buy that those two waves don't destroy each other or do something else dumb like snow in the south, lol

It's more about the general pattern than discreet threats at that range. 11-15 days is a good range for pattern stuff. For example, mid January was kinda the benchmark for the pattern change, and...despite the potential misses, you can see the chsnge happening. I won't attempt to explain as I couldn't; but layman eyes see stuff flowing differently on the models

I'm looking more at the pattern change/flow there....as someone else stated earlier maybe we can see how we do with more west-east as opposed to all the waves diving in.

GFS completely cuts off the SS interaction...mercy.

But it was never anything like the gfs though.

Icon looks like it has a lottle something with the CAPE storm...although the way the precip oriented hurt my feelings

I don't either. And to tell you the truth...the last two years have shown it can still be cold enough to snow. Our fails haven't been because it's too warm (or perhaps that's selective memory, lol). I mean even the threat this week isn't at risk of failing because it's too warm...just little moisture!

Exactly. DC having better snow than Baltimore north since 2019 makes no sense

But that doesn't explain the precip problems though...how is it that south of Baltimore is doing better when it has been cold enough to snow? I don't get the cut-off that has happened here...that ain't because of temperature is it?

I guess they're gonna wanna tar and feather Sirriani now? Lol

And the thing is there doesn't seem to be a reason! I mean it hasn't been warmth that's been the culprit...it's just the precip slamming on the brakes from Baltimore north. And I have yet to hear a satisfactory answer as to why that has happened more frequently than I can remember. It can't just be "bad luck", can it? I have problems accepting that, lol because it's like something in the atmosphere is doing it. I never remember being fringed south as many times as I have been over the last decade. This is why even if the fantasy runs for an overrunning potential turn out to have legs...I'm worried about it not reaching north enough to avoid the fringe. But maybe with enough juice we can finally get a good hit.

The problem is most of the applicable analogs the last several years have been negative ones! So the analogs did their job...it's just we haven't had many good ones pop up