Yeah but never underestimate the possibility a random GL low to ruin things...especially in a nina (that's actually what messed up 12z too). I swear those things just show up at the worst possible times, smh
If I had to pick a window to bet on between this one in yours...I may prefer yourself because stuff would be starting to relax a bit whereas this week the cold is building in. But I could be wrong though
I mean with high pressure pressing down in the middle of the country, wouldn't south be (unfortunately) more likely than north? Feels like that's a pretty strong press.
Spending less time looking at the models can help. I find the more I focus on whatever the weather frustration is, the worse it gets. So maybe limiting your time until we are actually in 5 day range may help
Kinda feel like there should be a little grace if that happens because it would be 100% understandable--but let's go with the positive for now that we will see something measurable