Maestrobjwa

Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now

Wow...if it caves it will be the most wrong the GFS has ever been on a storm we're tracking, lol I mean we're at 72 hrs and no change! I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow if it's gonna happen, right?

How so? NS is busier in ninas, right? So that means disruptions are more likely...right?

Lol Not quite what I mean. If you track a storm in a nina, ya gotta lower your expectations even more because nina crap is more likely to get in the way and mess it up. I mean look where we are right now...

What I'm saying is when trying to track a storm in a nina and you're 72 hours out...the complications that are most likely getting in the way are always the same: NS disruptions because it's simply too busy in ninas. What we're seeing now is no different: Too much phasing, too little...this GL low got in the way, this ns feature interfered at the wrong time, and on and on. I'd bet if we had this same slug of stj moisture coming right at us in a Niño with cold in place, it would be nice and simple. That's why I feel like enso state does play a role in what we see when we track a storm like this.

Don't chase a coastal in a nina if you value your mental health, lol

So the expected totals for this thing can still go down, then...

Unless is pulls off a massive coup, it's performance with this storm has just damaged it's credibility even more. Who can trust it with anything?

I don't understand the fun with sleet, lol (other than it being a pack preserver)

And BWI? (It would be great if folks could include that in pbp )

Not losing the floor (6-10") is the goal here...

Interesting good or interesting bad? Lol

You played out my intrusive thought that I resisted to do that...thank you, lolol

That they do. However the GFS has a different track with the primary altogether...so it being colder kinda lines up with that track.

Well the last guy they hired from Michigan is doing pretty good right now

The Ravens have made their choice: Jessie Minter!

Yeah if it doesn't cave tonight and other models don't start caving to it, then the GFS is in even worse shape than ever, lol

Wait, who? Lol

Let me shut up, lol

RGEM--small version of the CMC basically

And the thing is it's not even "the elephant" now...we got the cold but it always feels like there's 50,000 bad variations that can happen. Like random crap...stuff just finds a way to fall apart and I just don't get it.

Maaaan you ain't lying. I think I'm reaching that point today. It's like everything gets more complicated, can barely keep up with what "trend" we need to look for, all the "we need this to do that but not to fast, or slow, or north, or south...oh now here's another fail scenario"....bruh I'm tired. That's why any prospect of tracking a storm for next weekend just makes me like ugghhh I wanna just turn it all off and wait till next Friday, lol Again...TIRED Ninja'd by @SnowenOutThere on that sentence, lol

Dang. I mean even BWI recorded 13" for the Baltimore record!

Ohhh it did once...when NC got that blizzard in Dec 2018...oof. I remember that lobe up there trending stronger and stronger, lol

So this was just having random bad luck with the timing of that?