See, this is why I jumped ship earlier today! Once I read what you and Heisy said, and saw the trends from 6z on, you could tell this was not a trend that was gonna come back. The precip on those 3 runs shrunk like wet paper! And how we role around here...a Day 2-4 shift like that we don't easily come back from. And your explanation makes sense about the models keying in on the wrong wave. Something to learn from...